Unemployment in the United Kingdom 2009

There is, obviously, deep concern that unemployment (as measured by the claimant count) may rise to 3 million in 2009. This compares with figures mostly under a million over the past decade. Behind the statistics is the fact that unemployment means poverty and exclusion from the social and leisure activities which most people take for granted.

Unemployment under a million is commonly regarded as low and mainly a reflection of workers moving from one job to another. The long-term unemployed are largely ignored and offered short-term training schemes, recently as part of New Deal. The limited support for the unemployed becomes increasingly apparent when, as now, numbers start to rise rapidly.

Yet the claimant count, and the figure for job seekers – in the last decade between 1.5 and 2 million (almost twice the claimant count) – seriously underestimate the number of people who are not in employment. To some extent governments have minimised the totals – for example, by transferring large numbers to the “disability” category.

To understand the social reality of unemployment, a much more relevant figure is that for the economically inactive. This has been around 8 million since Labour came to office in 1997 and is likely to rise to over 10 million in 2009. It includes students but the main categories, with estimates based on figures since 2000, are as in the table.

Although there are those who would argue that this is the “real” figure is lower, there are compelling reasons to believe it is more likely to be higher. Nobody knows, partly because some people excluded from jobs are excluded from official statistics altogether. What is beyond doubt is that the estimate of around 8 million is nearer the actual level of people without jobs than the official monthly claimant count figure of under 1 million.

Unemployment and Communities

The citizens outside the statistics are usually the poorest, partly because they are not receiving social security benefits. If they are not poor they are likely to be part of the black economy, or of the criminal fraternity; two other areas of concern for the government.

There is an alarming discrepancy between official figures and government’s perspective, and perceptions of unemployment in poor communities. As Private Eye put it: “there is a widening gap between official figures and what people know to be the truth”.