The rupiah against the U.S. dollar in the interbank foreign exchange spot market on Wednesday (3/21/2012) predicted to weaken. Economic policies and U.S. housing data to be the trigger.
Jakarta – The rupiah against the U.S. dollar in the interbank foreign exchange spot market on Wednesday (3/21/2012) predicted to weaken. Economic policies and U.S. housing data to be the trigger.
Futures senior analyst at Monex Investindo Christian Albertus said the rupiah is still likely to continue pelemahannya. Therefore, some regional factors also are promoting a stronger U.S. dollar.
Last night, he continued, the U.S. noted that financial Secretary Timothy Geithner gave a speech on the U.S. further action concerning the effects of oil price increases before Congress.Geithner was confirmed predictable, do not need to respond to fiscal changes of oil price increases.
“Therefore, the rupiah likely to weaken to a level of 9230. This is a new weakest level since November 2012. Meanwhile, the level of gains is limited to 9140 per U.S. dollar level,” he told INILAH.COM.
Geithner’s statement, said Christian, pushing the U.S. dollar assets more attractive to investors. That is, in addition to economic recovery, the U.S. dollar also gained momentum from the U.S. monetary policy is loose and still accommodate the economy.”Unless the U.S. monetary policy back diketatkan. That would hurt the economic recovery,” said Christian.
This condition, he continued, reinforce previous attitudes of Governors of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke. In addition, the strengthening U.S. dollar also gained momentum from the U.S. housing sector reports such as Housing Start and Building Permit which was released last night.
“Even Start Housing is expected to stagnate at the level of 700 thousand but the Building Permit has been predicted to be 690 thousand increase from the previous 680 thousand,” said Christian.
But, he said, the weakening rupiah will benefit from Bank premises which are still continuing policy of intervention and bond markets.”Therefore, the fluctuation of the rupiah will still be limited to an 80-point and eventually weakening rupiah is also not sharp. For, if the rupee is above 9200, the rupiah intervention trap,” he added.
Just so you know, the rupiah exchange rate against the U.S. dollar in the interbank foreign exchange spot market on Tuesday (20/3) closed down 56 points (0.61%) to 9.179/9.189 per U.S. dollar level.