The Hope of Democracy in Africa

The Context

In 1978, Nigeria looked to be a country in a state of positive transitioning. High oil prices were stocking the central bank with seemingly unlimited resources.  Lagos was a growing but manageable city that had all the elements of an up-and-coming regional hub. A new capital was being planned that could potentially provide better public services to all of Nigeria. It seemed there was nothing that could stop the country from continued prosperity. Few could predict that over the next two decades, the number of years Nigeria’s economy would grow would be matched by the number of years it receded, that the average income in 1998 would be 10% less than in 1978, or that public expenses would have been so mishandled that literacy and social indicators in 2005 would be among the worst in the world.

Optimism about developing countries has declined. Performance has failed to meet expectations despite intimate involvement by bilateral donors and public international organizations. Governance has emerged as the leading explanation for why developing nations have been such weak performers; dictatorships, such as those that dominated Nigeria’s history since independence, have provided the greatest examples of bad governance. As witnessed in public speeches by influential Western leaders, democracy is hailed as the vehicle for economic and social service transformation. “Historians in the future will reflect on an extraordinary, undeniable fact: over time, free nations grow stronger and dictatorships grow weaker”[1]. Will democracy bring wonders to the developing world as promised or will it only satisfy the ideological goals of a few misdirected leaders?

Seven time zones to the west of Nigeria, China was one of the world’s poorest countries in 1978 with an average income of $157 a year. Passing through Tiananmen Square, or traveling through a provincial capital, or setting sight on a rural village, one would have seen a people trapped in poverty without access to capital, infrastructure, or markets. It would have been hard to see how China was on the verge of sustaining nearly 30 years of rapid growth, defying the gospel of development economists and politicians today. With an average income level less than 50 cents a day, China’s communist dictatorship may have seemed a failure. But after the most impressive growth in modern history, it now seems that this dictatorship had figured something out.

Research, Literature, and Politics

The influence of democracy on economic development and economic freedom has been a long standing debate often fueled by political interests and theory. Well crafted arguments have been posed and published arguing both sides, the frequency of which has depended on the political climate. Perhaps the most influential author on the subject has been Seymour Lipset whose theoretical arguments have persuasively argued that democracy cannot survive in any environment.(2) Economic development must be well rooted before true democracy can survive. By creating an industrial base, a middle class, and an environment of growth, dictatorships will create the necessary foothold for democracy to form, sustain, and flourish. Alternately, the current wave of ideologically charged thought pieces argue that democracy is a critical element to growth and improved livelihoods for the world’s poor.(3) This side is best seen in Nicholas van de Wall’s “Overcoming Stagnation in Aid-Dependent Countries”. His argument, which concludes in a call for democracy, is passionate but not compelling; the book has markedly little empirical evidence to support his claim that democracy is part of the answer. Like Van De Wall’s, most arguments that claim democracy spurs growth begin with the assumption that democracy spurs growth. On the other side, most arguments for dictatorships as a predecessor to growth and prequel for democracy rest on the unique experiences of a few countries. The subject has become more religion than science and few studies have truly contributed to our understanding of the inter-relations between regimes and economic performance.