Caroline Kennedy’s potential Senate-seat-via-fiat has once again given rise to the classic armchair-historian question: JFK v. Goldwater?

This happens every few years, most notably when Oliver Stone’s retread of It’s A Wonderful Life debuted in 1991 and he was saving the children from having to read those oh-so horrible books about history to get their information and opinions. The Iraq War and its similarities to the Rusk-McNamara deceptions brought it up again.

And now Mrs. Schlossberg has a shot at the brass ring of carpetbaggers and we wonder what the world would be like had JFK not been slain.

First one has to ask if Goldwater would have taken the nomination at all. For the Republicans, it was election for the heart and soul of the party itself. Would it become more moderate under the Rockefeller wing? Or would it go hardline with the Goldwaterites? His candidacy makes sense when one figures that LBJ was going to mop the floor with whomever ran in 1964 after JFK’s death. Herbert Hoover confided to Richard Nixon that year that once in a while you have to let the kooks take over, get destroyed, and the party realigns. Nixon himself was still not around to kick, his Phoenician rise was years away (he was also just admitted to the bar in NY). Ronald Reagan was still hosting GE Theater and not even in the arena. Favorite sons such as William Scranton and George Romney might have had a better shot at the VP slot. Nope, this is still a Goldwater-Rockefeller contest.

Simply put, Goldwater had the infrastructure in place and the delegates to squeak it out. Rockefeller used George Washington’s old tactic of denying he was running in the hopes a groundswell would form for his candidacy. It always backfired. Once he seriously ran, it was too late in the process. It is safe to say Goldwater would have it on the first ballot.

Kennedy, as incumbent, would have won the nomination handily this time. Again, there would be favorite sons here and there and George Wallace would poke his head out of the gopher hole, but nothing serious.

Kennedy, while well-liked, was not the wildly popular president Camelot made him out to be. His legislative record was uninspired and it can best be said that he learned on the job in foreign affairs. The Cuban Missile Crisis might have given him some points. America was in space. The economy was all-right.  The Nuclear Test Ban Treaty passed. The Cold War was quiet, for now.

Civil Rights may have hurt.

Kennedy finally decided to act after the Brimingham Bombings and seeing children being rolled by fire hoses. His speech in June, 1963, was famous for finally putting a moral spin on an issue “as old as the Scriptures and as clear as the American Constitution”.

I posit JFK’s Civil Rights Act of 1963 would not have passed if he were not assassinated. Even a parliamentarian genius like LBJ would never get past Robert Byrd, who in 1964 filibustered for 14 hours to block the 1964 version (when JFK was martyred). The 88th Congress was in control by the Democrats, but the South would never acquiesce to a weak executive. Especially when this was considered a State’s Rights issue.

However, it would throw the South solidly in Republican control (no shock here, it already was in presidential terms).

At this point the map would be the same as the LBJ rout over Goldwater.

Would the women come out?

Everyone knew JFK was a womanizer. They were called “playboys” back then. Unless the woman somehow could affect national secuity, the press kept it secret. The Republicans might have played some dirty pool with it, but it would be ignored. I don’t think it would be a factor. However, MacMillian’s government was toppled thanks to a call girl scandal. Americans have always been Anglophiles. Would it have been our turn?

What about his health?

JFK had Addison’s Disease and, like the women, it has been said that would be revealed. It was revealed though. It was mentioned in his campaign for the Senate. His sisters admitted to having it. But look at him. He played touch football. He dragged a boat across the Pacific with his teeth. Unless his immune system was compromised and be became ill (this is especially possible if he needed back surgery), I don’t think this would be discussed either. RFK had gotten Max Jacobson (Dr. Feelgood) and Janet Travers (his personal physician with a penchant for cortisone and Novocaine injections) out of the White House. JFK was on a good regimen of exercise and light pharmaceuticals (in comparison). Again, if his health held out, it would not be an issue.

Vietnam wouldn’t be an issue at this point. We had some advisors there. Kennedy was averse to putting troops in the area. Contrary to Oliver Stone’s belief that Kennedy wouldn’t have gotten us in there, the truth is Kennedy was a hawk. He also had the albatross of Cuba and his father’s appeasement in WWII dragging him down. He would have done something in the area. These were proxy wars after all. My feeling is he would have consulted with de Gaulle and put some sort of military presence in the area. “Scoop” Jackson and William Fulbright would have seen to it we were there.

Kennedy would have won, but it would be far closer than LBJ’s victory. Goldwater would have held the far-West better. It is probable he would have taken California and maybe Ohio (which JFK lost in 1960). This puts him between 134-186 Electoral Votes with a 53-45 split.

And had he won?

Would his health have held up?

What kind of Vietnam War would we be fighting? (There’d be no Tonkin Incident for openers.)

Would the Voting Rights Act and Civil Rights Act have passed?

Would the Space Race continue?

Would he have become a more accomplished Chief Executive?

Would Ronald Reagan have to make the speech that made him a viable candidate in his own right?

Would Nixon have risen to fight again in 1968? (Most likely against LBJ.)

The next time a Kennedy makes the news, we’ll go through this all over again. It is the most romantic of all the What Ifs in American history.