Egypt After Hosni Mubarak: Democracy, Military or Sharia
by The exit of Hosni Mubarak has opened a Pandora’s Box of possibilities and probabilities about the future of Egypt. There are many contenders of power, with their own strengths, weaknesses, agenda and strategies. How they play their cards and how they make the best of the opportunities that come their way will decide the final outcome.
As Hosni Mubarak leaves Egypt, speculation has already begun as to who will succeed the Octogenarian dictator, who kept all other contenders under submission for three decades.
Omar Suleman : A transitional authority
For the time being, it is going to be Omar Suleman, the recently appointed Vice President and a very close aide of Hosni Mubarak, who holds power. The former chief of Intelligence, Suleman is considered too close to the ousted Mubarak to be accepted by the people of Egypt. The fact that he has been speaking the voice of his mentor ever since his elevation, including ruling out the removal of emergency law of Egypt, are unlikely to make him the Darling of the protesting masses. It is difficult to say what may happen to him, but it seems unlikely that he will be able to cling on to his current authority for too long.
One must not forget that Hosni Mubarak himself had landed with power in a somewhat similar development. Many call him “an accident of history” and yet he lasted three decades. However, the circumstances in which Suleman has taken over are very different. It is unlikely that he will be allowed to retain his position. In fact the only way he can continue in power is if all the other stake-holders neutralise each other in a perfect stalemate – a probability that may be too small to be taken seriously.
The contenders: Opposition, Military and Islamists
In many ways, the recent protests in Egypt were a spontaneous public reaction to a dictatorship that they began to blame for all their ills, especially the economic downturns. Yet there is no doubt that political opposition as well as Muslim brotherhood played a crucial role in inflaming their sentiment and fuelling the mass protests. It is also true that these protests could not have succeeded in ousting Hosni Mubarak without the support of the Military.
The Political opposition of Egypt is currently headed by the Western poster boy, Mohamed Al Baredi, a Nobel laureate and former Chief of International Atomic Energy Agency. In a recent interview with New York Times, Al Baredi expressed his belief that democracy will take firm roots in Egypt now. A Committee involving representatives of Military, Opposition and Omar Suleman may also get formed to bring about adequate Constitutional changes. The political opposition has been at the forefront of the protests and hence leads in terms of public acceptability at this stage. Its support of Democracy also makes it a comfortable alternative for United States led Western alliance.
Liked it
