How to Spot a Rising Superpower

The only country at the moment that is uninhibitedly expressing itself in it’s own vernacular is India. India is a bit like the EU – geographically the same size, with 25 states which are really 25 countries each with their own languages, sub-dialects and histories going back several thousand years, who unified only recently (in 1947) and each competiting fiercely with each other to be the dominant state in the union.

India is not only the world’s largest democracy but also the most chaotic and free-wheeling democracy on earth. A certain freedom of speech exists in India that doesn’t exist in the west (due to conventions and political correctness inhibiting modern western cultural expression) and is even less likely to be found in the controlled cultures of China, Japan and East Asia. To western sensibilities Indian public discourse feels raw, lively and shocking. People and politicians seem to say all sorts of things (including base insults) that simply wouldn’t be allowed anywhere else. The only inhibition that exists is sexual, but even this area is loosening up, with Indian feminists posting pick knickers (”chaddis”) to traditionalists who criticize them. The commercial sector, like Japan but unlike China, boasts indigenous businesses which are making technological breakthroughs, such as the $2000 car from Tata and management software from Infosys.

The Indian film industry, Bollywood, is one of the largest in the world. India actually started producing indigenous movies in 1899, 11 years before Hollywood produced it’s first movie. But whereas the British and French movie industries withered in competition with American Hollywood, Bollywood went from strength to strength. Bollywood was always unashamedly comfortable in it’s own skin, happily producing movies quite unlike anyone else’s with music mixed into the narratives, borrowing from Indian mythology and revelling in fantasy. Bollywood currently produces a 1000 films per annum compared to Hollywood’s 500 per year, but in revenue still lags as ticket prices are cheap.

Bollywood movies are produced in Hindi, Tamil and Bengali, and unlike movies produced elsewhere, but like Hollywood movies, they are consumed outside the country they originated in. Bollywood movies are eagerly watched in the former Soviet Union countries known as the “stans”, and also watched in Indian’s traditional satellite states (Pakistan, Bangladesh and SriLanka), as well as in the Middle East, where they are dubbed into Arabic.

So is this output enough to qualify it as a country on the verge of a breakthough?

India does seem to be expanding it’s cultural reach. In recent years, Bollywood movies began to get releases in the UK and USA, and even releases in China (for movies such as Lagaan) and influenced American movies such Guru and inspired Baz Luhrman to produce his colourful musical Moulin Rouge. Indian music also began to be sampled for the first time by western acts such as the Black Eyed Peas in Elephunk, and by the FreeMasons in their remixes. And Indian literature churns out works in all the 25 official languages, and has also produced award-winning writers such as Vikram Seth, Salman Rushdie and Arundhati Roy who write in English. India’s cultural reach is a lot greater than Japan’s or China’s.

India at the moment resembles Britain in the early 19th century as she was developing the industrial revolution – full of energy, life, chaos, innovation, artistic output, extremes in wealth and poverty and lively political discussion. The United States in the period 1890 to 1910 was in a similar state of energetic flux. If they maintain the momentum, then a breakthrough will take place catapulting them into the premier tier. If their momentum is stopped, like Japan’s, then the promise will fizzle out.