Some historians believe that history is teleological in nature – that is, it inevitably moves to an end point that cannot be avoided. Marxist historians, for example, would point to the processes of historical materialism as a means of understanding the revolution of the classes that will follow the collapse of capitalism or, at least, some stage on the way to this situation. Others believe that history moves on a less structured and more random basis, not so much as Henry Ford would suggest (‘History is bunk’) but susceptible to a wide range of different causes and effects. Close study of the historical events of the past support this approach in some cases but not others. One of the more exciting elements of history is the possibility of interpreting and re-interpreting the events of the past in the light of new evidence and new theoretical constructs for understanding the world.

In the case of the decline and fall of the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644), several different interpretations are possible. Many people at the time, whose words and opinions have come down to us, expressed the belief that the end was inevitable because of the moral degradation of the people. They saw all around them the rule of the ‘lord of silver and the god of copper cash’ and deplored the materialism that affected the world. They contrasted the present with the past and, as is so often the case, found the present to pale in comparison with the moral standards of the past. Much the same thing happens today and, just like then, there is no evidence at all that people behave any worse now than they did in the past.

The Manchus, who succeeded the Ming Dynasty and established the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) tended to see things the opposite way around, of course. While they would concede moral degradation on behalf of the Ming subjects, thereby justifying acts of repression and violence against them, they would argue that it was their own moral and physical superiority which meant that the Mandate of Heaven passed to their Emperor.

Meanwhile, others would look at a variety of phenomena, including the relative strength of the Manchurian horse troops vis-à-vis the weakness of Ming border troops, the prevalence of natural disasters and disease and a certain running out of energy in the prevailing dynasty – no ruling regime can last forever, if only because institutions tend to harden like arteries and meritocracies become subverted by corruption and emplaced elitism. There are also the elements of luck and technology. The former is rather less predictable than the latter. The Manchus had little in the way of better technology than the Ming but luck appears to have been on their side as a comparatively low-level invasion rapidly led to a full scale imperial transformation. Perhaps the gods really were on their side.

For more details, see Peter Brook’s The Confusions of Pleasure: Commerce and Culture in Ming China.