Why Iran Wants the Bomb

There are some of us who remember October 1962 well. Khrushchev and Castro conspired to place short range missiles in Cuba, “ninety miles” from the US. In reality the distance is greater but the “intermediate range” missiles could deliver a warhead anywhere within 1200 statute miles from the site. To see this, set a compass point on the center of Cuba. Set the pencil just north of Baltimore and draw a circle. Near the edge of that circle are Baltimore (1165 miles), Washington DC (1137), Wheeling (1189), Cincinnati (1114), Tulsa (1216), Columbus (1172), Indianapolis (1175), Springfield IL (1237), Springfield MO (1187), and Dallas (1137). If you are inside that circle or just outside it, you were at risk.

Our missile detection was oriented to the north, if these missiles were launched we had no real warning system. Even if we had, the maximum flight time for the missile was about 20 minutes. If there was a launch the impact would occur in less than that interval. Actually these weapons don’t impact, they are detonated about 1,000 feet above ground to have the greatest effect. With a one megaton weapon on a missile major damage would have occurred to any of the above cities. At Hiroshima a 20 kiloton weapon, (0.02 Megatons) killed approximately 100,000 people. Yield figures of 5-20 times that for each of these missiles was likely. I have been unable to find the number of missiles but there were over 20 launchers, an indication that at least that number of missiles were being planned, generally the launchers had more than one missile each.

Let’s look at the corollary today. Iran is planning a nuclear arsenal. It spent 12 years fighting Iraq. It’s government says Israel has no right to exist. From Tehran to Tel Aviv is 977 miles. Iran has missiles that can cover that distance. It has planes the can deliver nuclear weapons at that range. The time to target is less than 20 minutes for a missile, about 90 minutes for a fighter/bomber.

Anyone wonder why Israel would be concerned?

Let me go a step further.

In August 1945 the US expended the world’s total nuclear arsenal costing over 20 billion dollars in today’s money in three explosions, July 16 (Trinity test), August 6 (Hiroshima), and August 9 (Nagasaki). On August 10 the world’s nuclear cupboard was bare. Sure there was nuclear material in the pipeline but the pipeline was months long and the process was arduous. Every bit of material available had been scrounged to make the three bombs, even lab samples of U-235 were scrounged for Hiroshima. Had Japan not surrendered and we chose to continue the bombardment the next nuclear explosion would not have been till late September or possibly mid-October.

Even today the process of enrichment of nuclear fuel is arduous. The process is somewhat dangerous for those who engage in it. If you wish to refute this look up Karen Silkwood. But enrichment is the backbone of nuclear energy and weapon production. To make a bomb you either need very pure Uranium-235 or Plutonium-239. Trinity and Nagasaki were Plutonium implosion weapons. Hiroshima was a uranium gun bomb. To make a bang you need “critical mass” – a certain amount of material in a compact space. Gun weapons are very simple. An explosion fires a U-235 slug into a U-235 cup. Both are less than critical, together they exceed critical mass. An implosion weapon is very complex but it requires far less material and it can be made with P-239 which is easier to make. Many explosive charges around a hollow sphere of plutonium are fired at one time, collapsing the sphere. Hollow it is sub-critical, collapsed it becomes super-critical.

I don’t profess to be able to create a bomb but I understand the basic principles of it. It is difficult and arduous. But it is possible if someone wants the bomb bad enough and has the money.

Iran is starting the process. This has to raise concern.