Eu: 26 Versus One Really?
by “You would be forgiven for thinking that Britain is on the fast track to becoming the North Korea of Europe — eccentric and completely isolated from the rest of the world.”
Sweden. The Swedish minority government looks unlikely to get the necessary majority to get the package, as it stands, through the Riksdag. The leader of the opposition Håkan Jurholt has warned against becoming euro members ‘via the backdoor’. The centre-right coalition remains split on the issue, with PM Fredrik Reinfeldt saying that it would be a ‘bit strange’ for the country to join. Meanwhile, Swedes are becoming increasingly sceptical. A fresh poll out this week shows that over 80 per cent of Swedes would vote ‘No’ to the euro in a referendum, compared to 42 per cent two years ago, while support for EU membership has dropped from 55 per cent to 47 per cent in a year.
Poland. Opposition parties Democratic Left Alliance and the Law and Justice parties have warned that the deal would violate the Polish Constitution, and therefore needs a two-thirds majority in both houses of the Polish Parliament, which is far from guaranteed. Law and Justice has even threatened to over-turn the agreement once in power (which, it should be said, can be a while). The government maintains that the pact actually won’t impact on Poland until it joins the euro.
Finland. The Grand Committee in the Finnish Parliament has launched an inquiry into whether the country’s Prime Minister Jyrki Katainen potentially over-stepped his mandate in the negotiations in Brussels last week. In its current form, the deal is unlikely to pass Parliament as the majority rule for the activation of the ESM (meaning Helsinki will be stripped of its veto over future bailouts) will require a two-thirds majority in the Parliament to be compatible with the country’s Constitution. Such super-majority looks unlikely since the main opposition parties the Centre Party and the Finns (previously ‘True Finns’) both oppose the deal.
Czech Republic. Prime Minister Petr Necas told the Czech press, ‘It wasn’t possible to sign up to this international agreement for a number of reasons. But the main reason was this – nobody knows what’s in it’, saying that the deal will need approval from his Parliament. In addition, the Czech Finance Minister Miroslav Kalousek yesterday said that the suggested additional IMF contribution is ‘extremely high,’ estimated by the Czech Central Bank to be equal to 10 per cent of official Czech reserves, something echoed by Czech President Vaclav Klaus.
Hungary. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban will let the Hungarian parliament decide whether to agree to the deal, although with his Fidesz party enjoying a solid two-thirds majority, he could in theory easily push it through should he want to.
Netherlands. The situation is not fully clear, with the Social Democrats appearing to have backtracked on their previous request for early elections to be called if further transfers of sovereignty to the EU were to take place under last week’s agreement. With the Social Democrats, the government would have the majority needed to push through the agreement.
Ireland. Ireland will decide whether it needs to be put the agreement to a referendum when the details of the agreement are clearer (probably March), with chances for a vote seen as 50-50. Deputy PM Eamon Gilmore also said that ‘I believe there will be a lot of discussion on that between now and March. I will be surprised if Britain is not involved in that discussion’.
Estonia. The Finance Ministry has said that the country will not contribute to the agreed €200 billion IMF capitalisation, even though the country is a member of the eurozone.
So is it fair to reduce this myriad of opinions and political positions to a 26 versus 1 discussion? You decide on my blog JPMacauley.wordpress.com
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