Global Warming May Not be Caused by Humans

I believe we must know more about the global climate before we can accurately use computer models to predict future climate change. We simply do not have all the necessary information to create a forecast for future climate change. This is something that we should continue to research so that one day we can accurately predict Earth’s climate because it is important to ecosystems and to the way of life as we know it. If we can predict Earth’s Climate, we could adjust to make sure we are ready for anything it may bring us. This is a topic that I would research a great deal if I was accepted into Northland College and got a degree in meteorology. I think climate change is one of the most important things facing us today and I have always been interested in it.

The first thing that we must know in order to forecast future climate change is what effect soot and dust have on our atmosphere. At the moment, there is conflicting data and ideas as to whether it causes warming or cooling. The idea that it causes cooling is that it is believed to block a small percentage of the sun’s radiation. Even small amounts of radiation blocked from the sun can cause massive cooling globally. An example of this is when volcano Tambora sent ash into Earth’s atmosphere in 1816 and caused a very cool summer for much of the globe. This summer is known now as “The year without a summer”. At the same time, however, there is evidence that it causes a net warming influence by causing darker colored snow and ice. If snow is darker, it will absorb more of the sun’s energy and cause it to melt quicker. This would cause more water vapor to be in our atmosphere which is the most important greenhouse gas. It is hard to say whether or not it would be a positive or negative feedback to melting snow and is one reason this question still goes unanswered.
Another thing we must figure out before we can forecast future climate change is what is causing the current warming trend. This is yet another important factor that remains unanswered. It is easy to say that the current warming of temperatures globally is due to the build up of certain greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide, but after looking at all of the data and factors it becomes unclear. There are a couple things that are current going against the theory that carbon dioxide is the main factor behind the present warming. The greenhouse effect theory states that if the greenhouse effect is getting stronger or weaker, the biggest change in temperature would be in the mid troposphere since this is where the highest level of the greenhouse gases are. When looking at the lower troposphere temperature data vs the mid troposphere temperature data, most data sets do not show what we would expect them to show if the increase in greenhouse gases was the main contributor to the present warming. This does not prove that carbon dioxide is not the main source of the warming but it certainly does not go in favor with it. The other thing going against this is that the south pole is not warming and sea ice has actually increased slightly since we became keeping records with satellites in 1979. Since carbon dioxide absorbs heat the best in cold, dry climates this would be unexpected. Again though, this does not prove that carbon dioxide is not the main factor because it could be said that increased snow due to increased evaporation has caused cooling. When oceans warm, it causes more evaporation and it could be causing increased snowfall in the south pole. It is important to know whether this is true or not so we can predict future changes certain regions across the globe may face due to the same type of thing.