Insight: Has Iran Ended Israel’s Begin Doctrine?

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Israelis often question U.S. President Barack Obama’s resolve in the Middle East. But even if he loses power in next year’s presidential election to a more hawkish Republican, it may be too late for Israel, which predicted last January that Iran could have its first nuclear device in two years. That forecast was echoed by Britain.

“If they (Israel) feel they could achieve their objective, or at least initiate the kind of conflict that would meet their objective, through a one-off strike, that would be feasible,” said Richard Kemp, a retired British army colonel who has studied Israeli strategy.

Israel’s military does not comment on prospective operations. But many in Israel’s defense establishment have gone out of their way to downplay the feasibility of a unilateral attack. Former Mossad spymaster Meir Dagan has repeatedly ridiculed the idea in briefings to Israeli reporters.

“Attacking the reactors from the air is a stupid idea that would have no advantage,” he said in May. “A regional war would be liable to unfold, during which missiles would come in from Iran and from Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

The Mossad under Dagan, who retired in January, is widely believed to have been behind the Stuxnet software attack on Iran’s nuclear computer systems as well as the assassination of several Iranian scientists. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied those allegations.

And even Netanyahu has shown signs of being gun shy — certainly when compared to his predecessor, the centrist Olmert, who ordered the Israeli wars in Lebanon and Gaza.

The prime minister’s swift deployment of short-range Iron Dome interceptors outside the Hamas-ruled territory of Gaza in April helped scotch Palestinian rocket attacks that might have otherwise drawn an Israeli invasion.

In January 2010, after the United Arab Emirates accused the Mossad of murdering a senior Hamas arms procurer in his Dubai hotel room, Israeli officials whispered that such skullduggery was preferable to the civilian toll of another Gaza war.

Keeping the world guessing as to how — and if — a confrontation might happen is in itself part of Israel’s strategy.

“I hope that the Iranians see an Israeli conspiracy in this,” said Yaalon of the mixed messages emanating from the Netanyahu government and its detractors, like Dagan. “That could help.”

(Edited by Simon Robinson, Crispian Balmer, Chris Kaufman and Sara Ledwith)