Natural Apex: Defining a National Energy Policy for the Next Decade
by In the years to come, essential raw materials from crude oil and arable farmland to clean air and fresh water will be in short supply. Wealth among nations will be more accurately measured by access to natural resources and raw materials than by the value of goods produced and services available. Based on shortages of essential raw materials, sustained prosperity of some nations is only achievable through deliberately depriving other nations of theirs. Animosity between nations will trigger debilitating resource skirmishes around the world, which no nation will win. Willingness by the United States to assume a leadership role in solving an imminent global crisis by assessing the impact of dwindling natural resources, analyzing alternatives from natural resource conservation to increased use of renewable resources and reliance on green technologies, and then executing a national energy policy defined from a truly global perspective is urgently needed. The stakes have never been higher.
- Planned transmission corridor installations, upgrades or overhauls
- Presence of power line congestion or potential for congestion caused by
installation of new power plants
- Baseload and peak power demand forecasts by region, and
- Planned long-term maintenance or shutdown of coal-fired, natural gas,
hydroelectric or nuclear power plants presently on line.
The southwestern United States has emerged as the nation’s solar energy epicenter, while abundant wind energy from Texas to North Dakota and along both coasts is already generating substantial amounts of electricity. Advanced computer modeling techniques would be invaluable in determining optimum locations for collocated solar, wind and geothermal energy power plants and for scheduling construction of critical transmission and distribution infrastructure.
Electrical power forecasting for the next decade begins by considering the amount of power generated in all fifty states during the previous year as a basis of estimate. Plan for at least a 50 percent increase in power required between 2010 and 2030, to accommodate a progressive shift from a petroleum-based economy. For example, power requirements to recharge hundreds of thousands of battery-powered vehicles, day and night, will be considerable. Also, a minimum three percent loss of baseload power generation is anticipated as petroleum-based power plants are shut down.
Power generation demands in the next decade include significant increases in both baseload and peak power needed across the country, especially between 7:00 AM and 11:00 PM. As alternative energy sources augment or replace traditional baseload fuel sources, such as coal, natural gas, uranium, and hydroelectricity, load balancing among transmission corridors becomes more critical. Sophisticated transmission switching equipment is needed to withstand rapid and wide variations in power produced by solar and wind power plants during daylight and evening hours.
Requirements for peak and baseload power may be assessed by use of overlapping demand time blocks. For example, periods of peak loading would be determined between the hours of:
- 7:00 AM and 11:00 AM
- 11:00 AM to 5:00 PM, and
- 5:00 PM to 11 PM.
Periods of baseload loading would be determined between the hours of:
- 7:00 AM and 11 AM
- 11:00 AM to 11:00 PM, and
- 11:00 PM to 7:00 AM.
Over time, large-scale wind farms and concentrating solar power installations generating 500 MW or more would replace older nuclear, coal and hydroelectric facilities.
As new alternative energy power plants are brought online and new or upgraded transmission infrastructure is in place, load balancing across the country actually becomes easier due to the number and types of power generation sources available nationwide. Long-range power demand and supply is efficiently managed as older coal-fired plants are retired and hydroelectric sources such as the Hoover Dam produce less electricity due to declining water levels of feeder lakes and reservoirs.
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