Natural Apex: Defining a National Energy Policy for the Next Decade

Although there may be no direct correlation, it is conceivable that a rising global standard of living has actually postponed re-occurrence of such widespread natural catastrophes.  Ironically, vastly improved health and prosperity enjoyed today may in time be responsible for devastating pandemics or other unmanageable calamities triggered by ease of global mobility.  The last great pandemic of 1918, for example, would have been much worse had people been able to travel around the world then as we do on a routine basis today.  Conspiracy theorists consider effects of such global catastrophes as well as contamination of public water supplies by fertilizer runoff, dispersal of virulent strains of avian influenza by mosquitoes, consumption of genetically modified crops triggering life-threatening illnesses, and exportation of foodstuffs sprayed with harmless preservatives that interact toxically with certain spices or beverages consumed in other countries as non-attributable ways modern society reduces the global population today, and reduces competition for limited natural resources in the future.    

In reality, economic and social disparity between “have” and “have-not” nations in a highly interconnected world is only resolved by meaningful cooperation among all nations.  However, the unprecedented level of cooperation needed will be extremely difficult to achieve, especially as declining global supplies of raw materials and basic commodities trigger suspicion and animosity among neighboring nations, allies, and potential adversaries.    

Basic commodities include all manner of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, and agricultural products from cottonseed oil to cows.  Typical sources of fuel, including crude oil, coal, and natural gas are examples of non-renewable natural resources.  Agricultural products include a variety of consumable foodstuffs, such as corn, wheat and soybeans, as well as livestock and poultry.  While typically consumed as food, edible crops and vegetation are increasingly used as fuel around the world as well.  As a result, a combination of basic commodities today play a role in providing an uninterrupted supply of energy for automobiles, homes, businesses and industry.  As the developed world knows, and the developing world is learning, availability of natural resources and continuity of energy are significant factors in continued growth and prosperity.  These are fundamental distinctions between “have” and “have-not” nations. 

Regardless of rapidly falling prices for oil and gasoline in the second half of 2008, triggered by the onset of a worldwide economic recession, crude oil prices are actually on a long-term upward trend due to a global decline in exploration and production.  As economic activity rebounds, crude oil supply and demand imbalances experienced by individual nations will eventually become globally significant.  Rising petroleum and gasoline prices will spawn renewed large-scale research in, and development of, all manner of alternative fuels and energy sources.  While analysts contend that a renewed focus on alternative energy is the beginning of a sea change in global energy production and distribution, dramatic changes requiring integration of alternative energy solutions will prove costly and time-consuming.  Money and time are critical commodities already in short supply.