New Jersey Moving North

Global warming is obviously ever present in the media. These articles paint great portraits of flooding, hurricanes, and massive droughts. But, while it may be selfish, we must ask the question: why should we care; what’s it going to do to us? The answer to that question does exist and it may be surprising; it’s an assortment of effects that could carry both harm and benefit, sometimes depending on one’s perspective.

According to the climatologist hired by the state of Vermont, average temperatures have increased about 1.6 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit during the last one hundred years. This change seems like nothing but it’s important to consider another projected characteristic of global warming: extreme variability. For example, this year’s November 30th was 66 degrees while December 3rd was around 25 degrees. The average of the two is 45.5 degrees, still quite warm but not entirely uncharacteristic of any other year. Precipitation has also increased about 5% during the last century and is expected to rise by around 15% in the next.

These are not exactly gut wrenching figures but even subtle changes can bring on magnified results. The US Global Change Research Program (which studies the projected effects of global climate change) concluded that, by around 2070, Vermont forests would be comprised of Hickory and Oak trees instead of its usual Beeches and Maples. First of all, this would effectively end the age old tradition of maple sugaring which VPIRG (an organization that is dedicated to protecting the welfare of Vermonters) says supplied Vermonters with around 13 million dollars in 2000. While 80% of the nation’s maple syrup used to come from Vermont, approximately the same figure now comes from Canada with Vermont and a few other states now making up the remaining 20%. Even worse would be the loss of our fall colors which provide about a quarter of our year round tourism revenue. While oaks provide a nice golden brown color, the reds and yellows of the maples and the bright orange of the beeches provide the real fall color attraction. Worst of all would be the loss of skiing which ultimately provides Vermont with 1.4 billion a year.

This is a lot of money especially considering that the Bureau of Economic Assessment calculates the total value of all of the goods and services produced in Vermont during one year to be 23 billion, ranked dead last of all 50 states. This means that the 1.4 billion in yearly revenue from ski areas that makes up one twenty third of Vermont’s economy would cease to exist. In more personal terms: one out of every twenty three people (with twenty three people being represented by the yearly GDP of 23 billion and one of those people being represented by the 1 billion attributed to ski areas) would have zero income. Obviously, these people would still need to survive and they would present a heavy strain on the other twenty two in our hypothetical group in the form of welfare and public support programs. While precipitation would indeed be expected to increase dramatically, snowfall will decrease due to higher temperatures. It is conceivable the ski season, already shortened by two weeks, could shrink and eventually become a tiny window of time that may disappear altogether.