TIE Explains WMD Intelligence in Iraq
With new intelligence techniques, new insight has been gained that may answer how the U.S was tricked into the war.
Intelligence is the key component needed to combat terrorism and defend against the numerous threats we face today. Currently, less than 1/10th of the United States spending on intelligence is devoted to analysis; it is the least expensive dimension of intelligence. However, if done right, the intelligence process will provide insight into new and emerging threats, perhaps preventing them, or at the very least explaining them after the fact. Toward that end, analysts in the nation’s intelligence community are under extreme public pressure to perform flawlessly.
Failure to do so has catastrophic consequences. Working to improve the quality of analysis to assist the intelligence community and intelligence analysts in gathering, analyzing and reporting on global threats to our interests, has resulted in the evolution of several new methods and techniques. Scenario-Based Intelligence Analysis (SBIA) is one such method. This document will explore the use of SBIA within the context of many methodologies.
Intelligence analysis is critical to countering current and emerging threats. The circumstances under which intelligence analysis is produced involve highly political situations ? information that is processed incrementally, data that often is incomplete, and pressure for instant interpretation. Judgment and derivative intelligence are what analysts use to fill gaps when dealing with incomplete information.
Many believe that the Intelligence Community can glean many valuable techniques for their business counterparts. Businesses around the world invest millions of dollars annually on systems and R&D to collect and analyze customer and competitive intelligence to gain advantage in their marketplace.
Once obtained, to effectively analyze intelligence, one must have an understanding of the strategic intelligence plan. Every government has a strategic plan, which along with being a classified document, is an outline of how, when, and where information on strategic or long-term interests and objectives or threats is collected. The purposes of intelligence reports are usually tailored to specific threats. So-called “threat specific” schools of thought have evolved with respect to intelligence analysis. Scenario planning assists in this effort. In order to understand scenario planning, you first must understand the intelligence cycle.
The Intelligence Cycle
The intelligence cycle consists of seven distinct functional areas, as can be seen in the following diagram. The seven areas are described below.
- Collection – the compilation of data and information from open, covert, electronic, and satellite sources and deciding what information you need about a given threat.
- Processing – putting data and information into context that is easy to understand.
- Analysis – the ability to interpret information and events to determine how the intelligence fits into the overall scheme.
- Production – the integration, evaluation, analysis, and interpretation of information from single or multiple sources into finished intelligence for known or anticipated military and related national security consumer requirements.
- Distribution – communicating the results of the analysis to the persons or organizations that need to know.
- Planning – the planning process determines what information is needed about current and emerging threats.
- Data Visualization – is a set of techniques used to turn a set of data into visual insight. It aims to give the data a meaningful representation by exploiting the powerful discerning capabilities of the human eye. The data is displayed as 2D or 3D images using techniques such as colorization, 3D imaging, animation and spatial annotation to create an instant understanding from multi-variable data.
Trans-disciplinary Intelligence Engineering
Since most of the intelligence life cycle is compartmentalized (performed by multiple agencies or departments) most of the newer techniques take a horizontal approach cutting across all five functional silos. One of the latest techniques for intelligence analysts is a hybrid technique called “Trans-disciplinary Intelligence Engineering” (TIE). This technique uses systems thinking, multi-hypothesis analysis and scenario planning in combination with other methodologies to create a robust situational setting that yields intelligence and insight.
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