Flaws and Strengths in Ferguson’s Ideology

The January 21st 2004 New York Times Op/Ed article by Niall Ferguson entitled “The End of Power” is a very intriguing and interesting article. It describes what Ferguson believes to be the reversion of modern culture into a period of Dark Ages, the reason for the reversion being the decline in American Hegemony. There are both flaws and strengths in Ferguson’s analysis of what he believes to be the end of “Pax Americana”. Firstly, we will examine what flaws Ferguson makes in his judgment of the situation at hand.

The base flaw that Ferguson makes is a two part mistake. Firstly the assumption that American power will undoubtedly collapse and leave a vacuum. And secondly, that no actors will arise and assume the position of uni- or multi- polar power that will fill the vacuum left by the decline of the two super powers. Out of this single flaw, numerous others arise.

The first flaw that is derived from his initial assumption is that American hegemony has a stabilizing affect on world order, and that the lack of a hyper power, or two competing super powers, will lead to a complete a total reversion in world culture and politics. However, this has been directly disproved by the War in Iraq. American presence has toppled the dictator of Iraq, thus creating an insurgency and therefore instability. The toppling of Saddam Hussein has also left Iran unchecked, and led to a more emboldened and dangerous Iran.

Why did he make this colossal miscalculation? Ferguson makes this assumption because of the ideology that he promotes. This is the ideology of Neo-Conservatism. A common belief of this ideology is that America is destined to be the dominant world power and that without the America “city on the hill” the world will collapse into anarchy. Because of Ferguson’s inability to separate his own personal persuasions from his analysis, he has made a base flaw in judgment, and has crippled his own argument.

Another flaw in Ferguson’s analysis is that of the possible collapse of China’s bustling economy. He makes the assumption that American and European investors will take staggering losses after a collapse, just like a century before, during the Boxer Rebellion. He also states that there is no possible way that the meld between Communism and Capitalism can hold together for much longer. The inaccuracy in this is that China’s vibrant economy shows absolutely no signs of a titanic crash or recession. There are occasional hiccups and dips in the economy, but every single economy on Earth is prone to occasional recessions and drops. This flaw is also spawned from the Neo-Conservative ideology that Ferguson holds to.