Fred Thompson Will Win the Republican Primary Because of His Federalist Beliefs

Fred Thompson has often been criticized for not having specific policy proposals to answer every question thrown at him along the campaign trail. In fact, those criticisms have been coming his way since before he was even a candidate.

It is fair enough to say that Fred’s campaign hasn’t been full of 50-page wonkish policy proposals (although he has outlined a nice plan for social security. What Thompson has done, though, is outline his basic governing philosophy. Think of it as governmental world-view. In fact, in this campaign, it seems to be more important to Thompson than his ultimate world-view.

The first posting on Fred Thompson’s campaign web site was a lengthy article about federalism. The first video up: not a Law & Order clip, but an 8:29 speech about federalism. He talks about the idea at all of his campaign stops and, seemingly, every chance he gets. He’s risked alienating the important social conservative vote, and evidently made a near-enemy of James Dobson, by answering questions about gay marriage with a federalist answer: let the states decide.

Frederalism?

According to the federalism article up at Fred08.com, Fred sees the outgrowth of federalism as “a government of limited powers derived from, and assigned to, first the people, then the states, and finally the national government.” He’s a big fan of states’ rights, too: “The federalist construct of strong states and limited federal government put in place by our Founders was intended to give states the freedom to experiment and innovate. It envisions states as laboratories in competition with each other to develop ideas and programs to benefit their people, to see what works and what does not.”

Fred is fond of saying on the campaign trail that “a government big enough and powerful enough to give you everything is big enough and powerful enough to take anything away from you.”

Who Cares?

There are two main groups that I see Fred really connecting to with his consistently federalist views: ultra-conservatives and evangelicals. That he is connecting with conservatives is hardly disputable; he’s running second in most national polls behind only Rudy Giuliani. That he is connecting with the more conservative members of the Republican Party has also shown up in polling data.

Rasmussen Reports says that Thompson is viewed as the most conservative candidate by 51% of Republican voters-not bad in a ten-man race. And in some state races, his lead among self-identified conservatives is higher than his overall lead. Let’s face it, we conservatives like to be left alone; that’s why we were such big fans of the Contract with America and Adam Smith. Conservatives know that a federalist government would be smaller and more efficient.

While James Dobson has had some snarky things to say about Senator Thompson, I really see his federalist stance as an attraction to evangelical voters. Even though Fred has said he wouldn’t support a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, there are still evangelical leaders supporting him (Gary Bauer and Richard Land, to name a few). Evangelical Christians understand having a life philosophy that affects (in theory) our every decision. We’re not hard to figure out! We worship a gracious, loving God and we do our best to be worshipful, obedient servants who cultivate a personal relationship with Him.

And since we’re acting (or trying to act) in a way that is consistent with biblical principles, we can appreciate somebody whose actions and words are influenced by principle – not political expediency. I think it’s the apparent lack of principle that makes evangelicals have such a hard time with the inconsistency of Rudy Giuliani and, especially, Mitt Romney.

What Does It All Mean?

The short answer is that Fred is appealing to the people who actually vote in Republican primaries. That’s why his polling numbers increase as the likelihood that poll respondents will vote in the primary increases (See pollster.com). So expect Fred’s poll numbers to increase as his message of federalism gets out. And expect conservatives to start getting excited again about things like free markets, states’ rights, and hearing a politician tell us the government is too big!