Republican Race After Iowa- TWO MAN Race Paul-romney
by Last night, we had the Iowa caucus, the first contest in the race for the Republican nomination for President in 2012. Let’s see where the race stands.
Let’s take the candidates one by one.
Perry and Bachman- Perry and Bachman are both finished. They both realize this as Perry is going back to Texas and Bachman may drop out of the race within the hour here on Wednesday morning.
Huntsman- Huntsman did not even bother going to Iowa. He is all-in in New Hampshire where he may break double digits. However, how can he think he will get the nomination when he worked for Obama for two years? Huntsman has no chance to get this nomination, especially when he completely blew off Iowa. He will be officially eliminated when he finishes behind Paul and Romney in New Hampshire next week.
Newt World Order Gingrich- Gingrich did not get one of the three potential tickets out of Iowa as he finished fourth below the three way tie of Romney, Santorum and Paul. He could have been a serious candidate for the nomination. However, he peaked in early December which was too soon. The other Republicans attacked his record which is not conservative and which is inconsistent. He became nasty and the voters saw him for what he is. In the modern era, the last forty years, the Republican nominee has to win Iowa or New Hampshire, then South Carolina. I see no reason why that will change this time. Gingrich will not win New Hampshire and will do lucky to get double digits. The bitter Gingrich is finished even though he will continue in vain.
Santorum- Santorum was the last “flavor of the month” to peak amongst the “conservatives”. He peaked at the right time and allowed him to finish in a three way tie with Paul and Romney last night. Santorum spent the whole year and actually lived in Iowa. However, Santorum is a one state candidate. He did not even try to get on the ballot in Virginia. He has not put the money or the time into the other states. His lack of preparation for the other 49 states will be evident. His ticket out of Iowa will turn out to be a dead end.
Willard Mittens Romneycare- Romney won the Iowa ballot by 8 votes last night. Big deal. He won the same 25% that he won last time. In a more crowded field than 2008, it was enough to be in a three way tie for first place. Eventually, Romney will have to get above 25% and get to 51% since the race will eventually get down to a two way race. He will win New Hampshire. Big deal. When we get to more “conservative” states like South Carolina and Florida, will Romney be able to get above the 25% to 51%? We shall see.
Ron Paul- Ron Paul did not have the meteoric rise that Bachman, Perry, Cain and Ginrich had. He slowly and steadily rose from nothing to 21%. I call last night a three way tie since he, Romney, and Santorum all got seven delegates. Paul, since he tied for first in Iowa, can still win the nomination if he wins South Carolina. Paul’s message of liberty and the Constitution and the non-interventionist foreign policy will continue even if he does not win the nomination. With the proportionate delegates in the contests before April 1, Paul will rack up a lot of delegates and will have a big voice at the convention even if he does not win the nomination. Paul has the volunteers and the money and the organization to run a 50 state campaign unlike Santorum. Even if Ron Paul does not win, this will set the table for a Rand Paul run for President in 2016.
Conclusion: This is a two man race, Romney and Paul
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