RON Paul CAN WIN South Carolina Primary- Now Huntsman Out
by A recent poll shows that Ron Paul is surging after a three way tie in Iowa and a solid second in New Hampshire.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2012/primary/rep/sc/ We have the first post-New Hampshire Poll in South Carolina. Mittens Romney leads with 29%, then Newt Gingrich at 25, then Ron Paul close behind at 20. Ron Paul was at just 9% in the last poll taken January 4-5, right after Iowa. Paul has more than doubled his support in just the last week or so.
South Carolina voters have picked the winner of the Republican nomination every time in the modern era, beginning with Ronald Reagan in 1980. South Carolina voters are very conservative. They are usually practical, though. They vote for the candidate that they think can win the general election in November. These voters also like the establishment candidate, at least through 2008.
The establishment candidate this time is surely Mitt Romney. We are told by the Romney campaign that it is his turn and he is the only one that can beat President Obama. We have seen from recent polls that this is not true. Ron Paul runs as well against Obama as Romney and does better with independents. Ron Paul is expanding the Republican party, especially with young people and pissed-off anti-war liberals. The Republican party risks losing these voters by marginalizing Ron Paul.
Ron Paul showed by his very close third in Iowa and then his second in New Hampshire that he can appeal to the social conservatives of the party and the economic conservatives. Mitt Romney appears to have a ceiling of 30% in the Republican Party. That is not enough to win the South Carolina primary, the nomination, and certainly not the general election against President Obama. Ron Paul’s support continues to grow. Paul was closing on Romney in New Hampshire in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire. The gap in South Carolina is less and there is more time to close the gap.
The next week or so is going to be very interesting. Watch Ron Paul close the gap and win South Carolina.
Update: Jon Huntsman withdrew from the race. Even more good news. http://socyberty.com/politics/jon-huntsman-quits-race-before-south-carolina/
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Post CommentCA Johnson
On January 13, 2012 at 9:29 pm
This is very interesting. I heard a little about Ron Paul, but I did not know how close the race is that he could win in South Carolina. Thanks for sharing.