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South Carolina Primary is Now Ron Paul vs. Mitt Romney

On today, January 11, the day after the New Hampshire primary, it is clear now that there are only two candidates that can win the nomination, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. All of the other non-Romney candidates should withdraw.  As you can see here last Wednesday, after Iowa, I wrote that the race for the Republican nomination is a two man race between Romney and the not Romney, Ron Paul.  I will walk through everyone else and explain why they are not viable. 

Rick Perry-  His campaign has been a joke since the late summer when he flubbed the debates.  Perry had the organization and the record to run a 50 state campaign and take Romney and then Obama down.  Perry was number one in the polls when he jumped in the race late.  He tried to make a comeback after his bad debates, but the voters moved on.  He could not get the fire back that entered the race with.  After his bad performance in Iowa, he thought about leaving the race then and there.  But instead, he went straight to South Carolina for the January 21 primary and skipped New Hampshire except for the debates.  If someone is going to beat Romney, then Obama, that man would have to run a 50 state campaign.  The Republican nominee cannot write off a purple state like New Hampshire.  Those 4 electoral votes may make the difference in November.  Perry is only running until South Carolina to make a graceful exit from the race January 22.  Perry staying in the race only helps Romney win a divided vote.

Newt Gingrich-  The analysis is similar to Rick Perry.  Gingrich could have won the nomination if he did well in Iowa.  However, he did not get one of the three tickets out of Iowa.  Gingrich paid lip service and made a token apperance in New Hampshire, but may not have even broken double figures.  Gingrich is all in in South Carolina.  But as the history shows, you cannot win South Carolina and the nomination without doing well in New Hampshire or Iowa first.  It looks like Gingrich is making ready for a not so graceful exit January 22.

Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman-  The analysis for these two is the same.  These are both one state candidates, Santorum for Iowa and Huntsman for New Hampshire.  Huntsman got his bronze medal in New Hampshire last night.  He has no viability in the more conservative South where South Carolina and Florida await.  Santorum is a little more viable since he tied Romney for first in Iowa and he will have conservative appeal in South Carolina.  However, Santorum does not have the funding and the organization to go the distance with Romney after South Carolina and Florida.  The contests will come fast and furious.  Santorum did not even try to get on the Virginia ballot since he did not think he would still be in the race.  I could write an article (and I may) that Santorum staying in the race will make sure that Romney gets the nomination.

If the above candidates really do not want Romney to get the nomination, they have to organize around Ron Paul now.  Paul showed that he can get the vote of squishy moderates in New Hampshire and more conservative voters in Iowa.  Paul can run the 50 state campaign with his money bombs to beat Romney and the polls show he can beat Obama in November.  Paul has the cross-over appeal, especially becuase of his anti-war stance.  Also, he is right enough on the social issues, but is not in your face about it like some of the other Republican candidates.  However, I fear that all these candidates will stay in through South Carolina and they will split the not Romney vote and Romney wins South Carolina, then the nomination and then lose to Obama in November. 


The Paul campaign came out last night and encouraged everyone else to drop out.  The only way to defeat Romney is to unite the not Romney vote.  Otherwise, Romney cruises to a pluarlity win. 

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User Comments
  1. lxdollarsxl

    On January 11, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    I totally agree with you it is a two horse race, and if Paul just sticks to pushing his policies then i think he will win it.

  2. cterrell

    On January 11, 2012 at 5:05 pm

    It is definitely a 2 man race.After Santorum fell from grace in New Hampshire it is clear that the race belongs to Paul and Romney. I want to see how Santorum does in the next debate.

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