Where Does the Republican Party Go From Here?

The Republicans lost the presidential election at the center. Barack Obama was not so far to the left that he failed to appeal to the centrist voters. The question was why did John McCain fail to compete in the center against Barack Obama, a failure that cost McCain Ohio, Pennsylvania, and perhaps Florida.

During the Reagan years, the Republican Party took large swaths of centrist voters, which at the time became known as Reagan Democrats, a group that included school teachers, public safety personnel, and other union members. Those Reagan Democrats gradually shifted back to the Democratic Party voting for Clinton, Gore, and Kerry in the last several elections. John McCain held out the promise of appeal to the former Reagan Democrats – McCain was genuine, independent, and not beholden to Republican Party shibboleths such as prayer in schools, anti-abortion, and de-regulation. Nevertheless, McCain failed to pull as much from the center as Obama.

Clearly the economy and George Bush’s low approval ratings adversely affected John McCain. He was seen as more closely aligned with George Bush than with McCain’s own platform. His selection of Sarah Palin, intended to solidify the religious right and appeal to women, ended up limiting the ticket’s appeal to the centrist voters. Ms. Palin did nothing for McCain with the centrist voter. Tom Ridge or Kay Bailey Hutchison would have had much greater appeal to the center-left voters than Sarah Palin, but neither Ridge nor Hutchison could solidify the religious right for McCain. So McCain opted to confirm the religious right rather than cast a lure to the centrist voters in a strategy that was premised on McCain’s own appeal to the center-left voters. That strategy failed – not by a large margin in key states, but enough to cost the Republican Party the White House.

Where does the Republican Party go from here? The challenge for the Party is to regain its stature with the centrist voters while maintaining its loyal base with the religious right and the advocates of limited government. Appealing to the center and to the religious right is a difficult balancing act for the Party. Ronald Reagan was able to manage it successfully, while the two Bush’s just barely maintained an edge in the center. Both Bush’s also upset Party faithful with tax increases and huge increases in government spending, thus alienating the limited government wing of the Party.

Therefore, the Party needs someone who can appeal to three disparate groups: centrist voters, limited government advocates, and religious conservatives. Sarah Palin may have a role in the Party going forward, but she currently does not have any purchase in the center, and an unknown reputation with the libertarian (limited government) wing of the Party. Tom Pawlenty of Minnesota lacks appeal with the libertarians in the Party and is not strong with the religious conservatives, but is very center. Also, Mr. Pawlenty may be too much of a middle-of-the-road Republican to stand out; he’s like a younger Bob Michel – an able but boring administrator.

The candidate to unite the three contingents of the Republican Party will unite the Party with a Reagan-esque vision of limited government, communication of the ideas of liberty for economic advancement, and some obeisance to the religious right. The only member of the Party with name recognition at this point might be Newt Gingrich. Otherwise, the public must wait for such a leader of the Republican Party to emerge, and a key test for the next two to four years will be the Democratic agenda with comfortable majorities in both houses of Congress.