Divorce Prediction and Prevention

Divorce is frighteningly common in the United States, yet few people understand the true reasons couples opt to dissolve their marriages. A common misconception about divorce is that infidelity is its most common cause; however, infidelity is cited as a factor in 20-25% of divorces, while lack of intimacy is cited by 80% of couples as the main reason for divorce (Niolon, 2005). Another common misconception is that couples that argue often are more likely to divorce; however, research findings suggest that it is the way couples behave during arguments rather than the number of arguments that leads to divorce (Niolon, 2005). In light of the damage divorce does to individuals and society, it is important that people understand the factors that contribute to divorce as well as the best ways to prevent it. An analysis of current research on marital interaction, particularly the work of Dr. John Gottman, reveals that specific patterns of communication are predictive of divorce. Research also shows that the application of this information results in more effective couples therapy.

Many factors have been identified that raise a couple’s chances of divorce. These factors generally fall into two categories: static and dynamic. Static risk factors-such as conflicting demographics, personality traits, or family background-are difficult, if not impossible, to change. It is therefore more logical to address these issues before marriage if possible. Analyzing dynamic risk factors-such as poor communication or the erosion of intimacy-is more beneficial because they can potentially be eliminated (Liddle, Santisteban, Levant, & Bray, 2002, p. 126). Dr. John Gottman began his research as a quest to identify exactly which dynamic factors lay at the heart of marital dysfunction in the hopes that his findings would lead to better therapy approaches. By watching the way that couples interact while discussing problems, he and his colleagues have been able to predict whether or not a couple will divorce with up to 94% accuracy (Liddle et al., 2002, p. 154). Gottman is considered one of the most influential figures in modern marital research, and he gained special notoriety with the development a mathematical formula to predict divorce based on his studies. He has used the results of his research as the basis for The Gottman Institute, which offers family therapy, couples workshops, and training for therapists (The Gottman Institute, 2004).

In a study conducted in 1992, Gottman found that patterns of affective behaviors, specifically the ratio of positive communications to negative communications, are at the core of marital distress (Liddle et al., 2002, p. 153). This discovery allowed him and his colleagues to predict divorce with a 74% accuracy level. By recording the number of positive interactions and negative interactions in different couple’s discussions of problematic issues, Gottman’s research revealed a 5 to 1 ratio of positive to negative interactions in stable marriages (Lehman, 2005, p. 292). He continued to expand on these findings increasing his level of prediction accuracy with each study he conducted.