Whenever someone quotes a statistic, it lends credibility to what they are saying. People quote statistics off-handedly. When they do, we don’t often think about whether or not they make sense,  the context of the study and who produced the study. Even the worst speakers and writers are capable of quoting a statistic in a way that fits right in with our prejudices.

What does a number really mean?

Conservative political commentator, author and Constitutional Law expert Ann Coulter received a lot of flack for her comments on an episode of ABC’s The View. The topic of discussion was her latest book Guilty: Liberal “Victims” and Their Assault on America, in which she says that single mothers are to blame for  crime in the United States. She quoted a statistic saying that 70% of inmates were raised by single mothers. “Victim of a crime? Thank a single mother!”.

The inmate statistic is true and 70% of inmates do come from single parent homes, so people do believe that Ann Coulter’s inferences- that single mothers raise bad children- must be true also.

However, saying that 70% of inmates were raised by a single mother is *not the same as saying 70% of kids who were raised by single mothers become criminals*.

If you know  that there are about 10.9 million families in the US headed by single mothers and that the number of inmates in jail is about 2.3 million, according to the Department of Justice- you realize that Coulter’s alarming statistic doesn’t add up to even 1/10 of the number of children being raised in single-parent households - meaning that the overwhelming majority of single mothers raise children who don’t end up incarcerated.

Other examples of statistics out-of context are found in the statistics about black violence. Saying ”black people make up 13% of the population, yet commit little more than half of homicides” is alarming and causes people to be fearful.

In 2005, the FBI recorded 16,740 murders (which the FBI used to report statistics). Black offenders committed 52.2% of those crimes. 52.2% of 16,740 is about 8700 murders- you could multiply it by ten and it wouldn’t add up to one million.

Yet there are 36 million black Americans in the United States. The interpretation of such statistics is usually “black people commit crimes”.  This interpretation blames 39 million black people for crimes that only a tiny fraction of the black population commit- and people act accordingly.

The fact is that many crime statistics leave out a very important fact: the number of people who don’t commit them. Statistics for crime are often immediately interpreted incorrectly by the public (and some officials).

A study that shows 52% of homicides committed by blacks does not show that 52% of blacks commit homicide.

A study that shows that 80% of sexual assaults are committed by men does not show that 80% of men commit sexual assaults.

But that’s the leap in logic we make when someone uses these statistics.

How do they get these numbers?

In the case of the FBI and Law Enforcement, there are detailed reports about how they arrive at their numbers.

But sometimes, studies don’t provide this information.

Some statistics even take on a life of their own. The “1 in 4 women will be a victim of rape in her lifetime” quote comes from a study in which  college girls were asked “Have you ever had sex when you didn’t want to?”

1 in 4 college women said yes. This was interpreted as rape. Of course, the way the question was worded, it’s possible that these women were just thinking of an unsatisfactory sexual episode.

Yes, rape is a serious crime. Yes, officials believe it is underreported and there is stigma, but how does “1 in 4 college women say they’ve had sex when they didn’t want” become “1 in 4 women will be raped in their lifetime?”

Another troubled number is the number of rape allegations. Law Enforcement officials estimate that 8% of rape allegations are false. The problem is that they don’t make a distinction between people who lied (made up the whole episode) and actual rape victims who simply failed to identify their attacker (mistakenly fingered the wrong assailant). 

The Bottom Line

You don’t have to be suspicious of everything you hear. Our society relies on statistics because they really do help and reputable sources will always tell you how they got the numbers. What we should consider is how they are interpreted and who interprets them.

Whenever you encounter a statistic, think about what it really indicates and whether it is a sufficient to make a decision about the behaviors and motivations of a very large number of people.