Around the world there are something like 500 million farming smallholdings that support some two billion people. These smallholdings are not just essential for the farmers themselves and their families but also for society as a whole because the food and other agricultural products that they contribute to the country, some of which can be used as exports.

However, smallholders tend to farm the land that is most marginal – that is, the land that is least attractive because of geographical or climatic reasons. Smallholders may once have farmed the more attractive pieces of land but have been forced off that land by force, market forces or otherwise the power of the wealthy. As a result, not only have smallholders had to be more resourceful and wise when husbanding their land but they also have most to fear from climate change. This is because climate change will, in most cases, cause the land to degrade gradually: good land will slowly become poor land over a period of time that might allow farmers to adapt their practices to new conditions; poor land will become unusable much more quickly and the smallholders and their families will become refugees.

Already, the crop losses and deaths of livestock have increased significantly and at a pace too rapid for most smallholders to adapt. One of the main approaches to trying to deal with the problem is to enhance the resilience of the smallholders and their farming efforts to make them better able to adapt. To do this, it is vital to pay attention to what the farmers themselves have to say: throughout modern history, we have witnessed numerous attempts of scientists and bureaucrats descending on agricultural areas and, no matter how well-meaning they may be, inflict top-down, technocratic solutions that nearly always fail. This is because it is very often the farmers themselves who understand the very specific conditions applying on their land and, as recent research has indicated, they know the various interactions between plants and animals – and many of those plants and animals are unknown to science.

Any attempt to increase resilience must, therefore, start with full and proper consultation with the farmers and with other important stakeholders. It must also be the case that solutions are allowed to vary over the course of space and time: that is, what is likely to work on one patch of land may not work so well or even at all on another piece of land even a few kilometres away. Secondly, solutions will change with respect to the seasons and with the need to manage rotation of crops and animals over one or more cycles of time. Again, the farmers themselves will have an important input into understanding this – however, farmers alone will not have all the answers and science and technology should not be ignored simply for the sake of maintaining the traditions of the past.

For more details, see this page from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD).

India is an agricultural country. Nearly three-fourths of the population of India depends upon agriculture and allied occupations. Still from time to time India faced with the food problem and scarcity of food grains. 

The very important cause of the food problem is the increasing population of India. The secondly, the methods of cultivation in India are still very backward. The farmer is using the same old methods of cultivation which his ancestors were using centuries ago. His implements are also outdated and crude. The seeds which he is using are also not of improved quality. Again the farmer being a very poor person is unable to invest any money for the improvement of his fields. The net result of all is that there is a less production of food grains in India as compared with the demand.   

Will eat for food (Photo credit: altemark)

Another reason for the food problem is that Indian agriculture is a gamble in the monsoons. The main source of irrigation in India is dependence upon the rains. But rains are very uncertain in India. If the rains are scanty, the agriculture suffers. Less rains cause famine and drought in our country. If the rains are in plenty, the food situation improves. Similarly if there are more rains then again the floods play havoc, and cause a lot destruction resulting in famines.

Besides these factors, the hoarders and black marketers also cause artificial food shortages by hoarding food grains. They purchase large quantities of food grains at the time of harvest at cheap rates. They hoard food grains to sell at black market rates during the time of scarcity or famine. Then a huge quantity of food is also destroyed by the pests like rats etc. it is estimated that only rats destroy a large amount of food which is sufficient enough to meet our shortages. Again, it is a very sad fact that when millions of people starve in many parts of our country, some rich people waste a lot of food in throwing big parties and feasts.

It is, therefore, very essential that this problem of food must be solved by our government at the earliest, because food is a basic necessity of man food shortages can never progress and become strong.      

The peri-urban part of a city is that area around a city in which the urban areas merges with the rural. In many cases, particularly in the past, it was quite clear where a city started and ended – after all, for the purposes of defence and security, many cities had walls built around them to mark their limits and to act as places in which the military held sway.

These days the situation is much different. Cities have extended beyond their limits and the countryside has come to meet them: the countryside produces fruit, vegetables and so forth which are now sold to markets in the cities. Roads are built to help farmers sell their products, often in wholesale markets outside of the central business district and downtown residential areas it is too expensive or time-consuming to send the goods. Where there are roads, then people will begin to live along them and set up businesses – anyone who has driven along the roads into Bangkok, for example, will have seen the many roadside stalls selling grilled chicken, duck, confectionery of all sorts and, indeed, just about anything else that can be imagined. These areas are built up, especially when migrant workers set up houses there (often illegally) when there is no cheap space available in the city. This is the region that becomes known as the peri-urban.

The peri-urban region is particularly vulnerable to climate change effects, such as the floods suffered in central Thailand at the end of 2011, because they fall between two proper systems. In cities, people can expect good infrastructure, clean water and properly-established places to obtain goods and services. In the countryside, on the other hand, people can fall back on traditional ecosystems in times of trouble: for example, their houses have traditionally been built on stilts to stay clear of the floodwater and supplies of preserved food and water are kept in safe places. People living in peri-urban areas enjoy neither of these systems. Indeed, their situation is often worse because no government officials or elected representatives may be responsible for them and there may be no accurate records of who lives where and what services they may require.

As global climate changes intensify in cities such as Bangkok, which already has a reputation as being one of the hottest cities in the world, then people in the peri-urban region will need to be offered the opportunities to help themselves through community organisation, proper representation and access to the resources required to protect against disaster. It is quite pointless to think that people in these areas should somehow remove themselves elsewhere or can be just ignored. 

The one that propagates this can be a healthy, safe and improved farming method as well as the other that argues there’s more bad than good within it. So, who do we trust? While it’s still the subject of a close research, let’s look into the several areas of organic farming (good and bad sides) to understand VCP510-DT  why many experts have making headlines today.

Definition Organic farming continues to be defined in different ways by food suppliers, intellectuals, environmentalist and critics. So, this issue features a wider perspective. In general, it indicates with all the alternative farming methods in growing food crops. The ways can include crop rotation, compost, biological bug elimination, mechanical cultivation etc. It discourages the use of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, engineered farming application, livestock feed additives etc. The farming method has earned success around the world along with the sales of organically produced foods have rocketed during the last 10 years. The fact around 37,000,000 hectares of land worldwide practice organic farming strategy is the testimony of their growing popularity.

What’s good regarding it? Transition from conventional farming to organic farming is not a time taking, difficult, tiresome process. A farmer can practice it without the difficulties The farming method might help farmers realize significant amounts of savings because they are not required to speculate more money in purchasing industrial fertilizers Using compost, biological pest control, crop rotation etc improves the fertility of the soil whereas using pesticides and synthetic attributes only harms its quality.

Organic foods are enriched in mineral content so they promise improved nutritional value As instead of harmful chemicals, organic your meals are poison-free ensuring safer quality foods The foods taste better as a consequence of improved techniques adopted in growing the plants The organic foods are not as likely to mold or rot quickly. They stay fresh for they are nourished naturally By practicing this, a farmer brings food self sufficiency. However, this is the detailed process which requires a systematic understanding of the time and utilizing apple gift certificates  the right management approaches.

What’s not too good about it? Foods cultivated on this method are costly because large amount of manual jobs are needed in it than conventional farming. Also, getting the organic certification is usually expensive. It is labor intensive as well as a farmer can produce more crops depending on industrial methods than organic ones.

A lots of skill is required to practice this. A farmer should spending some time and apply thoughtful observation to change the present farming system and addressing the difficulties. Besides the above, there are lots of other disadvantages organic farming is sold with. While Individuals are increasingly organic-minded, critics are researching the aspects that will not turn it into a healthy farming practice. Food self sufficiency What Is Organic Farming?

Organic farming is a huge healthy topic of dialogue lately, powered by two schools of thought. One which propagates this is the healthy, safe and improved farming method along with the other that argues there’s more bad than good in it. So, that do we rely on? While it’s still the subject of a detailed research, let’s check out the several areas of organic farming (bad and the good sides) to comprehend why many experts have making headlines these days. Definition Organic farming has been defined diversely by food suppliers, intellectuals, environmentalist and critics. So, the niche carries a wider perspective. Generally, it indicates using the alternative farming methods in growing food crops. The techniques can sometimes include crop rotation, compost, biological bug elimination, mechanical cultivation etc. It discourages the use of synthetic fertilizers, pesticides, engineered farming application, livestock feed additives etc. The farming method has earned success apple certification training  worldwide and the sales of organically produced foods have rocketed during the last 10 years. The truth that around 37,000,000 hectares of land worldwide practice organic farming technique is the testimony of their growing popularity. What’s good about it?

Transition from conventional farming to organic farming is not a time taking, difficult, tiresome process. A farmer can practice it without difficulties The farming method will help farmers realize quite a lot of savings since they’re not necessary to speculate more cash in purchasing industrial fertilizers Using compost, biological bug elimination, crop rotation etc adds to the fertility with the soil whereas using pesticides and synthetic attributes only harms its quality.

Organic foods are enriched in mineral content so that they promise improved nutritional value As opposed to harmful chemicals, organic meals is poison-free ensuring safer quality foods The foods taste better because of improved techniques adopted in growing the plants The organic foods are more unlikely to mold or rot quickly. They stay fresh for these are nourished naturally By practicing this, a farmer can bring food self sufficiency. However, this is a detailed process which needs a systematic comprehension of the time and using the right management approaches.

What’s not too good over it? Foods cultivated in this method can be very expensive because lot of manual work is required in it than conventional farming. Also, obtaining the organic certification tends to be expensive. It is labor intensive along with a farmer can produce more crops counting on industrial methods than organic ones.

A lots of skill is needed to practice this. A farmer should spend some time and apply thoughtful observation to improve the prevailing farming system and addressing the issues.

Besides the aforementioned, there are numerous other disadvantages organic farming includes. While people are certifications apple becoming more organic-minded, critics are researching the aspects that don’t make it a healthy farming practice. 

As the country gets younger and the economy expands beyond agriculture and manufacturing, into information technology and services, there may be reason to worry about food security. These fears are, however, offset by the fact that there is no longer a need to seek social sanction to pursue knowledge as the principal vocation. The widening of education is reflected in the small family norm that is economically far more viable for the population.

Scholars may scoff that the country’s illiteracy rate — believed to be 25 per cent of all men, and 45 per cent of all women — is still far higher than China’s. But India sends six times as many students into universities and institutes of higher learning. Such progress is in keeping with the ideals of a country with such a large proportion of people below 30, whose future we must secure. It took years of education to bring India to this state, but it’s good to know that we are headed in the right direction.

Types of societies are categories of social groups that differ according to subsistence strategies,the way that humans use technology to provide needs for themselves.

Although humans have established many types of societies throughout history, anthropologists tend to classify different societies according to the degree to which different groups within a society have unequal access to advantages such as resources, prestige or power.

Virtually all societies have developed some degree of inequality among their people through the process of social stratification-the division of members of a society into levels with unequal wealth, prestige or power. Sociologists place societies in three broad categories: pre-industrial, industrial, and postindustrial.

Pre-industrial societiesIn a pre-industrial society, food production, which is carried out through the use of human and animal labor, is the main economic activity.

These societies can be subdivided according to their level of technology and their method of producing food. These subdivisions are hunting and gathering, pastoral, horticultural, agricultural and feudal.

Hunting and gathering societiesThe main form of food production in such societies is the daily collection of wild plants and the hunting of wild animals. Hunter-gatherers move around constantly in search of food.

As a result, they do not build permanent villages or create a wide variety of artifacts and usually only form small groups such as Bands and Tribes, however some Hunting and Gathering Societies in areas with abundant resources (such as the Tlingit) lived in larger groups and formed complex hierarchical social structures such as chiefdoms.

society (Photo credit: Aunt Owwee)

The need for mobility also limits the size of these societies. They generally consist of fewer than 60 people and rarely exceed 100.

Statuses within the tribe are relatively equal, and decisions are reached through general agreement. The ties that bind the tribe are more complicated than those of the bands.

Leadership is personal-charismatic-and for special purposes only in tribal society, there are no political offices containing real power, and a chief is merely a person of influence, a sort of adviser, therefore, tribal consolidation for collective action are not governmental.

The family forms the main social unit, with most societal members being related by birth or by marriage.

This type of organization requires the family to carry out most social functions, including production and education.Pastoral societiesPastoralism is a slightly more efficient form of subsistence.

Rather than searching for food on a daily basis, members of a pastoral society rely on domesticated herd animals to meet their food needs.

Pastoralists live a normadic life, moving their herds from pasture to another. Because their food supply is far more reliable, pastoral societies can support larger populations. Since there are food surpluses, fewer people are needed to produce food.

As a result, the division of labor; the specialization by individuals or groups in the performance of specific economic activities; becomes more complex.

For example, some people become craftworkers, producing tools, weapons, and jewelry. The production of goods encourages trade.This trade helps to create inequality, as some families acquire more goods than others do.

These families often gain power through their increased wealth. The passing on of property from generation to another helps to centralize wealth and power. In time, hereditary chieftainships, the typical form of government in pastoral societies, emerge.Horticultural societiesFruits and vegetables grown in garden plots that have been cleared from the jungle or forest provide the main source of food in a horticultural society. These societies have a level of technology and complexity similar to pastoral societies. Some horticultural groups use the slash-and-burn method to raise crops.

The wild vegetation is cut and burned, and ashes are used as fertilizers. Horticulturists use human labor and simple tools to cultivate the land for one or more seasons.

When the land becomes barren, horticulturists clear a new plot and leave the old plot to revert to its natural state.

They may return to the original land several years later and begin the process again. By rotating their garden plots, horticulturists can stay in one area for a fairly long period of time. This allows them to build semipermanent or permanent villages.

The size of a village’s population depends on the amount of land available for farming, thus villages can range from as few as 30 people to as many as 2000.As with pastoral societies, surplus food leads to a more complex division of labor.

Specialized roles that are part of horticultural life, include those of craftspeople, shamans (religious leaders), and traders. This role specialization allows people to create a wide variety of artifacts.

As in pastoral societies, surplus food can lead to inequalities in wealth and power within horticultural societies,as a result, hereditary chieftainships are prevalent.

Economic and political systems are developed because of settled nature of horticultural life.

Agricultural societiesAgricultural societies use technological advances to cultivate crops over a large area. Sociologists use the phrase Agricultural Revolution to refer to the technological changes that occurred as long as 8,500 years ago that led to cultivating crops and raising farm animals. Increases in food supplies then led to larger populations than in earlier communities. This meant a greater surplus, which resulted in towns that became centers of trade supporting various rulers, educators, craftspeople, merchants, and religious leaders who did not have to worry about locating nourishment.Greater degrees of social stratification appeared in agricultural societies. For example, women previously had higher social status because they shared labor more equally with men. In hunting and gathering societies, women even gathered more food than men. However, as food stores improved and women took on lesser roles in providing food for the family, they became more subordinate to men. As villages and towns expanded into neighboring areas, conflicts with other communities inevitably occurred. Farmers provided warriors with food in exchange for protection against invasion by enemies. A system of rulers with high social status also appeared. This nobility organized warriors to protect the society from invasion. In this way, the nobility managed to extract goods from the “lesser” persons of society.Feudal SocietiesFrom the 9th to 15th centuries, feudalism was a form of society based on ownership of land. Unlike today’s farmers, vassals under feudalism were bound to cultivating their lord’s land. In exchange for military protection, the lords exploited the peasants into providing food, crops, crafts, homage, and other services to the owner of the land. The caste system of feudalism was often multigenerational; the families of peasants may have cultivated their lord’s land for generations.Between the 14th and 16th centuries, a new economic system emerged that began to replace feudalism. Capitalism is marked by open competition in a free market, in which the means of production are privately owned. Europe’s exploration of the Americas served as one impetus for the development of capitalism. The introduction of foreign metals, silks, and spices stimulated great commercial activity in Europe.

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The use of several wild foods,  including  some  caloric  staples, diminished  rapidly in

the  early stages  of the  Younger  Dryas,  and  the  sequence in which  individual  species

declined  is  consistent  with advancing  desiccation.   The  decline in wild cereals was

immediately  followed  by a  rapid  rise  in a  weed flora  typical of arid-zone cultivation

involving substantial tillage.  Charred seeds provide  direct  evidence  that  the  villagers  at  Abu

Hureyra cultivated domestic  rye  at  this  time.   There are  also  indications  of other domestic

grains and possibly legumes after 13,000 BP.  These observations of domestication  pre-date

all others for southwest Asia by one thousand years.  According to Hillman (2000a:  420-1),

this series of events suggests  that  cultivation was  precipitated  by the  decline in wild  cereals

and that environmental change was the trigger.

Population in the  village  grew to perhaps 100  –  300  people  at  its maximum during

this period even though population levels  in southwest Asia as a  whole  were contracting,

with many sites abandoned.    The  poorer  climate probably  decreased fertility and  increased

mortality  for  the  existing inhabitants  of Abu  Hureyra,  so population  growth suggests  that

people were migrating  from other sites in the  region.   The  lack  of evidence  for  violence  or

fortifications at Abu Hureyra also suggests that any such migration was relatively peaceful.

Abu Hureyra was also exceptional for its continuous  occupation  during  this  period.

The Younger Dryas resulted in a return  to a  nomadic  way  of life  across  most of southwest

Asia (Bar-Yosef, 2002a,  2002b).   Both regional  contraction  in population  and  increased

nomadism for the region as a whole are  consistent with  the  decline in health  accompanying

climate deterioration (Smith, 1991).  Abu  Hureyra was  an outlier  in this  regard  as well.

Analysis  of skeletal remains  indicates  that  nutrition  levels  remained  constant  during  the

Younger Dryas (Molleson, 2000).

Around 12,000 BP,  the  approximate end  of the  Younger  Dryas  at  Abu  Hureyra,

population in the village declined, indicating an out-migration to  previously  arid  locations.

Charred remains  dated to this  period  include evidence  of free-threshing  wheats and  bread

wheat as well  as domestic  einkorn,  barley, lentils,  field weeds, and  gazelle bones.    Abu

Hureyra 2 is dated from roughly 11,400 BP.  The villagers were farmers  who  also  collected

some wild plants and hunted  game,  but  eventually became wholly  dependent on their crops

and  domesticated  animals.   Population  increased rapidly to levels  more than  twenty  times

the population of Abu Hureyra 1 and  surpassed in size  almost  all other contemporary  sites

in southwest Asia.  All told, the  life  span of the  village  exceeded  four  thousand  years of

continuous occupation.

A number of geographical factors help explain the relatively large size  and  longevity

of Abu Hureyra.    It  was  particularly  well  situated with  regard  to surface water; it  had  easy

access to a wide range of foods due to its location at a juncture  of two  environmental  zones;

it was close  to the  gazelle  migration route;  and  it  had  extensive  open land  with  easily  tilled

soils and adequate rainfall for dry farming.  This combination was very rare in the region.

Abu Hureyra is the only site in southwest Asia at which it  is  possible  to observe the

entire  transition from foraging  to agriculture.  Other sites such as Mureybet, Tell  Aswad,

and Jericho provide data that, while consistent with the general  story from Abu  Hureyra,  are

less  informative and  less  certain. Conditions  at  these  other  sites were also  unusually

favorable.  Tell Aswad was located on a  lakeshore surrounded  by marshes, and  Jericho had

a permanent spring.  Other early agricultural sites were on  river flood  plains  or alluvial fans

(Smith, 1998).  Thus far, the presence of domesticated seeds  during  the  Younger Dryas  has

only been documented for Abu Hureyra, but analysis of wild seed assemblages at  Mureybet

 (dating from 12,500  BP)  “suggests that  the  morphologically wild-type  einkorns,  ryes, and

barley were already under predomestication cultivation” (Hillman, 2000b: 378).   Elsewhere,

domestication is first observed later in the warmer and wetter Neolithic period.

4.   The Formal Model

This section defines short and long run  equilibria  for  a  model involving  technology,

climate, and population.  The analysis can be generalized in various ways, but  we confine

attention to simple functional forms in order to highlight the main causal mechanisms.

Technology.  Consider  a  production  site  with two  sources of food:  wild (obtained

by foraging) and cultivated (obtained by agriculture).  These foods are  perfect  substitutes  in

consumption. 

Foraging has  decreasing  returns because variable labor  is  applied to the  fixed  harvestable  resources
provided by nature (the input of seeds from nature  is  normalized  at  unity).    Agriculture  has constant returns because it involves seed inputs that can be scaled up as desired. 

Early in an agricultural transition suitable land is abundant and can  be ignored.    These  assumptions are

standard in the economic literature on agricultural origins (Weisbrod, 2004a).

The adult  population  allocates  labor  to maximize total  output,  taking  account of

the fact that agriculture requires a flow of seeds as an input

As will be explained below, we take a time period to be the  length  of one  human  generation

rather than an annual cycle.  From this perspective it makes  sense  to regard  seed inputs  and

food outputs as contemporaneous flows, and  thus  (2)  does not  incorporate  time  subscripts.

In the neutral case weather has a  multiplicative effect  on food per  capita  but  does not  affect

the allocation of labor  or the  population  threshold  required  for  an agricultural  transition.

Neutrality is assumed in sections 4 and 5; biased effects will be discussed in section 7.

We consider a large geographic area with  a  continuum  of production  sites whose total mass is unity.  In  our  population  model one  time  period  is  a  human  generation (15-25 years), so weather refers  to the  average environmental  conditions prevailing at  a  site over such an interval.  Annual and seasonal variations are ignored.  

It  does not  matter  for  our  analysis  whether quality is  a  permanent feature of a  site  (e.g. resulting from a lakeshore  location),  or a  random  variable that  can  change over  time  (e.g. weather in the strict sense).  It is only important that under a given  climate regime, the  fraction  of good sites  p remains constant over time for the region as a whole . 

 The model can  easily  be extended  to allow  many site  qualities,  but  only the  best  sites play  a substantive role in the analysis (these are the places where population density is greatest and

therefore where agriculture occurs first).

Population.  We use an overlapping generations framework where all adults have  the

utility  function  U[c,R(e)], with c  denoting  food consumption by the  adult,  e  denoting  food

consumption  by children,  and  R(e) the  number of children  who survive to adulthood.

Utility is maximized subject to c +  e  =  y.   The  number of surviving  children  per  adult as a

function of available food is r(y)  ≡ R[e(y)], which is increasing  if  R  is  increasing  and  e  is  a

normal good.  Leisure is ignored for the moment but will be discussed in section 7.

The  open access  assumption  is  a  convenient  way  to generate  a  positive short  run

relationship between  weather quality and  population  density across  sites,  as we explain

below, but a similar relationship can arise under  more complex  property  rights  systems  that

impede full utility equalization.  For example, foragers can often move  to better  locations  by

exploiting kinship networks, creating a tendency for  population  to concentrate  at  good sites

(Kelly, 1995).  Our  qualitative results  survive as long as this  tendency  exists.    As noted  in

section 3, circumstantial evidence suggests that migration increased the size  of Abu  Hureyra

during the Younger Dryas, indicating that some mobility was possible.  Similarly, Bar-Yosef

(2002a:  116) suggests  that  as marginal  areas became drier in this  period, kinship-based

relocation caused population to rise in the fertile belt of the Levant.

5. The Effects of Climate Change

This section applies the model to the case of southwest Asia discussed in section 3.

Initial Warming.

For southwest Asia it is  implausible  that  the  initial  warming  improved  the  best  sites

disproportionately.  The  critical role  of climate change was  to enhance  water availability

through increased precipitation.  The greater precipitation would not have provided a large

marginal  benefit at  those  sites endowed  with permanent  water sources  (rivers, lakeshores,

marshes,  or springs),  but  it  would  have been significant  at  less  desirable  locations.   Thus

weather, in our broad sense, improved  proportionately more at  bad  sites than  at  good ones.

This is consistent with the observed migration of people into previously arid landscapes. 

Figure 5  shows  how  an abrupt  warming  at  the  end  of the  Ice  Age  that  compressed

the distribution of weather outcomes would also have compressed  the  short run  distribution

of population across sites.  Despite better  conditions throughout  the  region, agriculture  did  not  arise because  the  maximum local density  declined as a result of population dispersal.

The scenario of the preceding paragraphs cannot rule out a shift to agriculture  in the

long run  on purely  theoretical  grounds.   

Now consider an abrupt climate  deterioration (in  the  southwest Asian case, the Younger Dryas).  This lowers  the  weather quality  at  good sites, the  weather quality at  bad  sites, the  fraction  of sites that  are  good,  or a  combination of the  three.    The y(N) function therefore shifts down in Figure 4, moving the  system from C  to D.   Because conditions did  not  fully revert  to Ice  Age  levels,  the  new  y(N) curve  is  placed  between  the curves for initial warming and the Ice Age. 

This scenario,  which reverses  the  effect  of the  initial  warming  described above  by

increasing the heterogeneity of site qualities, is consistent  with  the  fact  that  many sites were

abandoned during the Younger Dryas, and also with the fact  that  the  sites in continuing  use

(such as Abu Hureyra) were those that depended less on rainfall.  As noted  in section 3,  the

population of  Abu  Hureyra actually grew in this  phase,  probably  due  to in-migration from

increasingly arid  locations  elsewhere.   This local effect,  which runs  counter to the  regional

population decline induced by the Younger Dryas, is likewise consistent with our theory.

  In the case of Abu Hureyra, we observe a relatively brief period of population decline around the  end  of the  Younger Dryas (about 12,000 BP), with renewed population growth accompanying the increased  dominance of agriculture in Abu Hureyra 2 (dated about 11,400 BP).

6. Other Transitions and Non-Transitions

Even if it is granted that our theory captures some central features of the transition in

southwest Asia, one might wonder whether it can be applied to  other pristine transitions  and

whether it can account for the absence of agriculture  in seemingly favorable  contexts.    This

section briefly surveys selected  cases of each type.   The  available  data  are  inconclusive but

we are not aware of evidence that directly conflicts with the framework in section 5.

North China.  Most authorities  now  agree that  there were two  largely independent

centers of pristine agriculture  in China,  one  in the  north in the  Huanghe  River valley  and  a

second in the south in the Yangzi River valley  (all  data  on China  are  from Lu,  1999,  except

where stated).   In the  plain north of the  Huanghe, evidence  for  domesticated  millet comes

from the  Cishan assemblage,  dated to roughly  8000-7700  BP.    South  of the  Huanghe, the

Peiligang culture gives evidence of  millet cultivation during  8500-7500  BP.    In general, the

data for this region are incomplete  and  genuinely transitional  sites have not  been identified.

PART 1: http://scienceray.com/biology/ecology/the-transition-to-agriculture-neolithic-revolution-14/

PART 2:  http://socyberty.com/issues/neolithic-revolution-24/

PART 3:  http://scienceray.com/biology/ecology/neolithic-revolution-34/

PART 4:  http://socyberty.com/social-sciences/neolithic-revolution-44/

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