Protests in Tahrir Square for the 25 Jan

Hundreds of Egyptians arrived Tuesday evening to Tahrir Square in central Cairo, the cradle of the 25 January revolution, in preparation for celebrating the first anniversary of its beginning.

The square was completely closed to traffic at 9:30 pm, and tents were erected in the middle of it.

A stage, on which political activists are to deliver speeches and cite poems against the former regime, has been built near the main entrance to Mohamed Mahmoud Street.

On the other side of the square, members of the “Revolution Protection Committees,” who said they came to celebrate, built another stage, but clashed with some of those present in the square.

In preparation to secure entrances to the square, Muslim Brotherhood members have gathered before the Egyptian Museum.

Egypt is expected to witness mass demonstrations on the anniversary of the beginning of the revolution that toppled former President Hosni Mubarak on 11 February 2011.

On 9 January, 54 political parties and movements called for country-wide protests on 25 January to demand a swift handover of power from the ruling military council to civilian authorities.

Other political forces, including the Jama’a al-Islamiya and the Salafi-oriented Nour Party, have announced their intention to gather in Tahrir Square on 25 January,

Mohsen Radi, a member of the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party, said MPs will attend celebrations in the square to celebrate the revolution.

Ahmed Khalil, Nour Party spokesperson, said the party is not coming to celebrate but rather to demonstrate in favor of achieving the revolution’s goals and against the killers of revolutionaries.

Al-Azhar Grand Sheikh Ahmed al-Tayyeb is to dispatch his advisor, Hassan al-Shafei, to deliver a speech on the occasion. He is expected to demand the handover of power to a civilian government, call for speeding up the trials of those who killed demonstrators, emphasize the need for a civil state. He is also expected to request equality, freedom of opinion and independence of the judiciary.

FJP committee nominations produce first parliamentary crisis

Parliament is witnessing a crisis between the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) and other coalitions, blocs and independent candidates over electing heads of parliamentary committees.

Some MPs said they would boycott the elections as they object to the FJP nominations. They accuse the party of attempting to dominate Parliament by unequally distributing nominations among all parliamentary blocs.

The liberal Wafd Party also said they would boycott the elections.

“We won’t take part in this false measure in the name of democracy,” MP Abouel Ezz al-Hariri of the Revolution Continues Coalition told Al-Masry Al-Youm.

“The FJP is trying to use their majority in Parliament to impose a de-facto situation,” said Basem Kamel, Egyptian Social Democratic Party MP.

independent MP Amr al-Shobky said he would not boycott the elections.

Shobky, however, said he had declined aN FJP offer to support him as undersecretary of the foreign affairs committee.

Liberal and secular forces fear that the FJP will dominate parliament in the way the dissolved NDP did under the regime of former President Hosni Mubarak.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s party has won 47.18 percent of seats in the People’s Assembly, the electoral commission announced on Saturday as it gave the final results from the polls.

Image via Wikipedia

Hosni Mubarak is gone. He is facing trial and sits behind bars as  he faces his accusers. But he during his 30 years in power had kept the hard line Islamic parties in check. In fact numerous attempts to assassinate him were made , but they failed and Mubarak hanged quite  a few of the hard line Islamic groups.

The tables have now turned turtle. Islam always had an appeal to the Egyptian people and Mubarak kept it in check with a secular policy that included peace with Israel. But now in the last just concluded election the Muslim Brotherhood has won 47.18% of the seats in the Egyptian parliament. This shows that the Egyptian people  are basically supporting a Islamic revival.  The peace  with Israel is ruptured and the Israeli ambassador had to run away from Cairo like a rat. The popular sentiment is against Israel. 

The USA must now be feeling the heat as this victory by the Muslim Brotherhood is not a good sign. They do not talk of secularism and fan the minds of the people with a dream of a Islamic heaven. masses as we know can be easily misled. In addition Egypt has no tradition of democracy and there is every chance that in case the Muslim Brotherhood comes to power in Egypt, it won’t go away at all.

The crucial role is of the army which is still holding the reins of power. it will be interesting to see how the wheel turns in Egypt in the future.

Death of a Fruit Vendor Ignites a Chain of Public Protests across the Globe

On January 4, Mohammed Bouazizi, a 26 year old fruit vendor in Sidid Bouzid , a small town of Tunisia who had tried to self immolate himself  on December 17 earlier, died of his burn injuries. His death ignited wide spread public protests in Tunisia against the corruption ridden governance and finally led to the fleeing of its President, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali 10 days later. The success of public protests in Tunisia, fuelled and often coordinated by social media, inspired similar protests in Egypt soon thereafter, leading to a cascading chain of similar protests not only in the Middle East, but across the globe, including Europe, India, China, United States and Russia.

Bouazizi used to earn around $3-4 every day by selling fruits, an activity which was frowned upon by the Municipality officials. On Dec 17, 2010 as he brought fruits for trading with a debt, his fruits and his electronic scale was confiscated by Municipality staff, led by 46 year old Inspector, Ms Faida Hamdi, who slapped and abused him on the site. Bouazizi then went to the Municipal office to request the return of his goods, but was pushed back from the gates by the guards who mocked and laughed at him. Unable to take his frustration and insults, Bouazizi douzed himself with gasoline and immolated himself. He was admitted to a nearby Hospital where he succumbed on January 4.

Bouazizi’s self immolation had aroused local protests, and his story had been posted on the internet. His plight was already making rounds in the social media when he died. It was his death that suddenly triggered protests across Tunisia, largely from participation of unemployed youth, comprising nearly one-fourth of the working age poluation. Fuelled by the shock waves that spread with his funeral, mobs swelled and people, frustrated with corruption and poor governance, began to direct their ire against the dictatorial president Ben Ali, who fled soon thereafter, paving the way for democracy in Tunisia. Soon, the success of public protests proved to be highly contagious in a world, where large masses of people were fed up with a lot of things, across all political boundaries.

The public protests that followed made 2011 an year of protests. Biggest public triumph came in Egypt, where people fought a non-violent war with President Hosni Mobarak and won. Soon protests swelled across the Middle East and beyond, affecting places as far and wide as Europe, India and China. While protests outside the Middle East may not directly be a result of what happened in Tunisia, there was no doubt a great element of inspiration that they gathered from protests elsewhere.  

2011 was marked by hardships for the common man, as the long term impacts of past financial stress began to take their toll. 2011 began with busting of many asset bubbles, a sense of crisis, unemployment and rising food inflation. Unresponsiveness of dictatorships made them the target of people’s frustration setting up the stage where pent up anger was just waiting to find a target. What started with the self immolation and death of Mohammed Bouazizi actually became a showcase of public power in the age of social media sharing, making everyone to sit and take note.

Rulers across the world will fear the people’s power from here on and that may be greatest change brought about by Mohammed Bouazizi’s untimely and tragic death. The Times magazine named ‘the protestor’ the person of the year in 2011. Its editorial stated,

“Mr Bouazizi takes his place with other figures whose willingness to see through the charade of oppressive rule elevated them beyond the drudgeries and petty humiliations of commonplace existence.”

Event  # 2

Return of Muslim Brotherhood in the Middle East

More than seven decades after its creation, Muslim Brotherhood acquired the centre stage of Middle East political map after the public protests deposed some of the veteran dictators, while others were shaken and stirred into adopting a more tolerant stand. To many, this may be the real turning point of our history, and what happens next will be keenly watched by many observers.

Muslim Brotherhood is a highly fluid network spread across the world in different forms, formal and informal, that work with a common motive of restoring the status of Islamic community in global politics through all possible means. Its creation in 1928 by Islamic scholar, Hassan Al Banna,  was largely a response to the dissolution of Ottoman Empire in the First World War, that caused heartburn among the global Islamic community and dented their pride, leading to a reactionary pan-Islamic aspiration for dominance. Its motto says, “God is our objective; the Quran is our constitution, the Prophet is our leader; Jihad is our way; and death for the sake of God is the highest of our aspirations.” Its main objectives are introduction of the Islamic Sharia as “the basis controlling the affairs of state and society;” and unification of “Islamic countries and states, mainly among the Arab states, and liberating them from foreign imperialism”. In many ways, it is synonymous with pan-Islamism.

After the Second World War,  the Brotherhood was largely contained by the dictators of Middle East. It was banned and faced severe repression in Egypt after its failed coup in 1954 and has not been allowed to exist openly since then. From the 1980s onwards, it shunned violence and adopted a liberal attitude, often seeking the democratic route to its resurrection. Many feel that it played a very important role in public protests, not only in Egypt, but everywhere else in the Middle East. Some view its adoption of democratic card as a tool to gain acceptability among masses and make use of public anger against the dictatorial regimes. After deposing Mobarak, it has openly held to an alliance with the Military, reminding one of its similar alliance with Nationalist Military Officers in overthrowing Egypt’s monarchy in 1952 and its subsequent opposition to the secularist constitution, just prior to its failed coup and repression.

Muslim Brotherhood is also the biggest beneficiary from the events of 2011, throughout the Middle East, including Tunisia where it has already forced a return to Sharia as the state law. In Jordan, it has adopted a hostile stand and is in a state where it can bargain with the King. In Bahrain, Syria, Palestine, Kuwait and Oman too, it has strengthened its position.  How the future of a Middle East governed by Muslim Brotherhood unfolds, is for time to tell and world to watch. It can either go the way of Sudan, which has been ruled by Muslim Brotherhood proxies for a long time, or it may result in its modernisation and moderation, which will be the best news for people in a long time.

Whatever may happen, it is bound to be a different world henceforth.

Event # 3  

Greece Triggers Euro Crisis, Sends Shivers across Global Economy

The month of May saw angry Greek protestors running riots in the streets, vehemently rejecting the austerity measures proposed by the government to tackle its debt crisis. The Greek debt had risen to unsustainable proportions leading to speculation about possible defaults. S&P downgraded its credit rating to CCC, the lowest in the world. Along with similar concerns in Ireland and Portugal, it raised question marks over the financial stability of Eurozone itself. As European Union was unable to commit its resources to the vulnerable states in time, and the public protests grabbed more and more attention, the shivers sent stock markets crashing across the globe in one of the worst falls since 2008.

The European crisis resulted from two factors. The first was the rupture of the global asset bubble in 2007-08, resulting largely from investments from trade surplus nations, the Oil exporting countries and China. The second was the monetary union which was divorced from the fiscal policy, thereby preventing Eurozone countries from printing money and devaluing its currency, which could have countered their burgeoning trade deficits. By the end of the year, there were signs of another massive bail out, involving European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility, and the International Monetary Fund, but the crisis is far from over and its outcome will shape the world in future.  More importantly, both the underlying causes still remain and can spoil the scene in coming months and years.

However, in a world that is becoming more and more used to crises, especially of financial nature, what brings this event in this list, is its political aspects. Some Economists are already suggesting that affected countries may be allowed to return to their currencies and even default on their debts. The crisis has seriously undermined European unification plans, with many people in countries like Germany and Britain questioning the wisdom behind it. The prospect of citizens of these countries having to bear the cost of mess in other countries will not auger well for the stability of Eurozone. Worse, proposals like European Financial Transaction Tax, whose economic logic is highly doubtful, can worsen the situation by alienating certain countries even further.

Four years back, Euro was seen as an alternative to the monopoly of the dollar. Today, in spite of the crushing impact of four years of financial mess in United States, it is the Euro which is struggling to survive.

2012 may decide its fate.

Event # 4

The Unthinkable: S&P Downgrades US Credit Rating

A few decades from now, August 5 might be remembered as the Black Friday in the economic history of the United States. The global history, could however, have a different description for it, depending upon who is in the writer’s seat at that point of time. The unthinkable, that happened that day, was downgrading of US sovereign debt by Standard and Poors, one of the three top credit rating agencies. It was an appropriate climax after the week long political drama wherein the White House and the Congress were locked in an ugly stalemate over the reduction of fiscal borrowing and cutting of expenses.

Many argue that for all practical purposes, it was an inconsequential event. Similar downgrades in case of Australia, Canada and Japan had made little difference to their fortunes. It is true that heavens are unlikely to fall if one of the three As are removed from credit rating of US. In any case, all the three agencies had been talking about it since April, and to be fair enough, skies actually did not fall after the downgrading.

Yet, the event is a game-changer because it signals the onset of what had virtually become inevitable at least half a decade ago. The massive trade deficit, approaching a trillion dollars p.a., had become unsustainable long back, and was sustained only in the hope that the main creditors, notably China and oil exporting countries, were bound to lose as much if they ever tried to pull the rung under the feet of US economy. What August 5 demonstrated that you do not need them at all to do such a thing. The increasing unsustainability has not only become too prolonged and too obvious to trivialize, its insurmountable economic impacts are already there for all to see.

Fifty years from now, US credit downgrading will be remembered as the first formal sign of an end of a golden era of economic  growth in the United States. It is not the downgrade that matters, it is what it signals that will change the world in just a few decades to come.

Events # 5

China Lambasts US after Downgrading

Within hours of the S&P downgrade, China came out with its first attack on the US economic policies, a move that is significant from the point of view of changing Chinese assertiveness viz a viz the United States, and indicates a paradigm shift in Chinese stand. It signals China’s newfound confidence with which it is ready to assert itself and challenge the United States in its struggle for global ascendancy.

Xinhua , the official Chinese news agency wrote that China had “every right now to demand the United States address its structural debt problems and ensure the safety of China’s dollar assets. International supervision over the issue of US dollars should be introduced and a new, stable and secured global reserve currency may also be an option to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.”

For over a decade now, United States has been trying its best to pressurise China into freeing its currency from the fixed exchange rate that is has maintained in spite of massive trade surpluses and an unprecedented foreign exchange reserve. Economists tell us that it is impossible to have a fixed exchange rate, capital mobility and monetary autonomy.  China has defied this principle in real life by adopting complex capital control policies that allows free capital inflows , relatively free remissions but very strict control over outflows of indigenous capital coupled with an undervalued currency that ensure huge trade surplus. What is more important, though, is that with its deft diplomatic handling of US policy of engagement, it has been able to successfully prevent any fall out of its clever currency manipulations, for almost a decade.

Since the seventies when the Nixon-Kissinger initiatives, often termed as the ‘policy of engagement’ allowed it to get away with its stubborn policies in a way not even the best of US allies could hope to get away with. Since the beginning of the last decade, as its economy finally began to function in full gear, it hardened its stand over the exchange rate probably after realizing that any compromise then would allow its advantages to fizzle out, just as it happened with Japan in the 1980s. The Japanese Yen which was at 240 to a dollar on September 22, 1985, on the day of Plaza Accord, appreciated to 200 yen to a dollar by the year end and further to a level of 155 yen/dollar by August, 1986. US Government tried the same tactics with China, but China withstood all its pressure tactics. Ten years hence, United States has lost the sting in its economic tale, and China knows its time is just round the corner.

Chinese call for a new reserve currency of the world was hardly taken seriously by Western analysts. The next couple of years may well force them to change their opinion. That day, they will understand the significance of Chinese statement on August 6.

Event # 6

Anti Wall Street Protests Shake the Global Capitalist Empire

Ten years back, if somebody had wondered whether capitalism will survive, people would have laughed at him. They might have laughed him off on September 17 too, when led by Canadian based Adbusters Foundation, a thousand Americans gathered in Zuccotti Park to march towards Wall Street for a peaceful occupation against the injustices caused by the modern economic order. However, within a few weeks it was clear that it is not a matter that can be laughed away.  Over the period of next few weeks, the movement became widespread across the developed world, with the popular slogan of “We are the ninety nine percent”.

By October 5, the number of protesters had swelled to over 15000. On October 15, tens of thousands of protesters were swarming through 900 cities across the world. The protests targeted London Stock Exchange, Times Square in New York city, European Central Bank in Frankfurt and Switzerland’s financial hub in Zurich. There were also protests in Tokyo, Sidney, Hong Kong, Taipei, Hamburg, Madrid, Paris and Sao Polo. By October 29, over 2000 cities were witness to the largest ever public show of dissatisfaction with unbridled market freedom – the very pillar on which whole capitalist ideology is based. 

Mikhael Gorbachyov, compared it with Perestroika and the dissolution of Soviet Union, but it will be too premature to write an obituary of capitalism as yet. What may have happened however, is that the halo around the market has been broken. One hopes that from here on, markets will be treated just like markets – nothing more and nothing less. One also hopes that removing that almost religious veil around them will allow analysts to understand the pros and cons of market more objectively, make allowance for their failures and plan for them in advance. Lastly, one hopes that economists around the world will finally understand and appreciate that very basic difference between a consumer market and asset market, and realise that asset markets, governed by expectations are always prone to failures and always do so in a cyclical manner, that in a world of surplus production, asset bubbles will always happen the moment public memory of earlier bubble and bust begins to fade, and that with time, asset markets will govern our economy far more than the consumer markets.

One hopes that the wake up call given by the protests will bring revolutions in economics, finance and management rather than the politics of the world.

Event # 7

Osama Killing in Pakistan Blows the Lid off a Generation of Lies & Deceit

On May 2, 2011, a joint covert operation by US marines and Central Intelligence Agency, in a small town of Abbottabad in Pakistan ended in the killing of world’s most wanted fugitive, Osama Bin Laden. The event should have been a signal for the return of peace, particularly in the subcontinent. Instead, it had only made the situation more unstable, volatile and unpredictable. Maybe after a few decades, someone would ask as to whether it might have been better to leave the poor assassin in his hole, retired as he was, instead of blowing the hornets’ nest with all its consequences.

It has been an open secret for over two decades that Pakistan has become the terrorism capital of the world, aided by a complex interplay of forces, both internal and external, that thrived by its status and made the best of it for their own narrow interests. Ever since Osama disappeared from the bombed sites of Afghanistan, there has always been speculation that Osama had found shelter in Pakistan.  In an extremely complex set of loyalties and massive double agent-ships or even multiple agent-ships, it is impossible to say who knew all that and who did not. From Islamabad to Kabul to Saudi Arabia to Washington, nobody may ever know as to who was doing what. Most scaring, probably, is the apprehension that even the people who were protecting or targeting him, had no idea on whose side they might have been working for. It is equally difficult to say whether Osama was found by his killers, or sacrificed by those who promised to protect him, and with whose knowledge, or without it.

The killing of Osama became an event worth this list, not because it will close the Al Qaida chapter, but because it bring to fore all the lies and deceits that were always part and parcel of the United States – Pakistan alliance, and not necessarily from one side. It was by and large the turning point in their relationship that perhaps both have been anticipating to happen any moment. Several subsequent events, like the memogate and the NATO attack that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers are only a manifestation of what had become inevitable with Osama’s killing in Pakistan. From here on, diplomatic relations may soon be mended, but the blind alliance that once existed is unlikely to get resurrected in near future. The events of the last two decades only confirm the theory that Pak-Afghan corridor has always been one of the most stubborn ones to be subjugated, throughout the history of mankind.

History may just repeat itself. If it does, repercussions are likely to be felt far and wide.

Event # 8

Saudi Arabia Grants Women the Right to Vote

In a speech broadcasted on television on September 15, King Abdullah, the absolute monarch of Saudi Arabia, granted women a right to vote in the next municipal elections, which are scheduled in 2015. The event may not be of any importance directly to the world, or even to the women of Saudi Arabia, who must travel with a male sponsor called “mahram”, must always be segregated from males other than family and do not yet have a right to drive.

Still, it is an event worth recording for posterity, as it happened in the centre of Wahaabi fundamentalism, and was announced by the only person in this world who has the power to control it. Ever since the discovery of gas in the deserts of Arabia and the steady flow of petrodollars there from, the Islamic ideologies are interpreted and dictated around the world, through a Salaafi-Wahaabi prism that is intolerant to every other version of Islam. King Abdulla’s insulation from it is derived from the historical bond that his family shares with Wahaabi ideologues since 1744, when his ancestor Mohammad Bin Saud made a pact with Mohammad Ibn Abd-Al Wahaab, the founder of Wahaabism, whereby they promised that Saud’s family will hold political power, while Wahaab’s family will be in-charge of religious hierarchy of Islam. Notably, that happened at a time, when even the family of Wahaab had expelled him and refused him support or sympathy, while other Muslim scholars were literally asking for his head.

If there is someone that can bring changes to the fanatic Muslim orthodoxy across the world, most of which is sponsored, supported and enforced by Wahaabi ideologism powered with petrodollars, it is the King of Saudi Arabia. With Arabic spring lurking in its background, one hopes that more good news will flow from the kingdom soon.

Who knows….. 2012 may see Saudi women driving, even if it is necessarily under supervision of a mahram. That  small step can bring about changes that the whole armed forces of NATO will never be able to dream of.

Event # 9

Durban Climate Conference Celebrates Extension of Status Quo

After two weeks of hectic negotiations that almost ended in disaster, last minute hectic negotiations saw the global community finally arrive at a deal that was considered a success, if only because it averted the disaster of total disagreement between developed and developing countries. On December 10, the conference finally concluded with three major agreements. The Kyoto Protocol, expiring in 2012, got a new lease of life, this time for five years. There was an agreement to establish a Green Climate Fund for $100 billion for aiding developing countries, and lastly, there was a general agreement to seal a new agreement by 2015 that would impose responsibilities not only on the developed world, but also the developing countries like China and India, and become implementable by 2020.

These outcomes are little more than an extension of the status quo because of the devil in the details. The differentiation of developed and developing country has again been associated with historical responsibilities and cumulative contribution to pollution. It is an issue where countries have gone back on their word earlier. United States signed the convention in 1992, but went back on its commitment later citing it undemocratic, as the legally binding targets did not include developing countries. So far as Kyoto Protocol is concerned, United States is out of it, as is Canada. Japan and Russia are against it, and emerging states like China and India are not covered by it.

Not much to cheer for then, except that they agreed to agree some other day.

One hopes that day does come in our lifetime. If that happens, we will fondly remember the crisis management of December 10 and credit those who were involved with saving the planet.

If it does not, then god save us.

Event # 10

South Sudan Finally Secedes – After Over 2 Million Casualties

On July 7, South Sudan finally broke off the union that was forced upon it in 1956. During the intervening period, all except a decade has been consumed by a never ending civil war between the North and the South. The Second Civil War, that broke out in 1983, had already consumed more than two million lives, while more than double that number were forced to take refuge. With secession and independence, probably there will be an end to killing and other human right violations that have become a norm rather than an exception during the last three decades. However, there are many signals that do not bode well. Already there are clashes between tribal fraternities, and there is a real possibility that they may become worse.

While for the rest of the world, most of the events on this list are not exactly a matter of life and death, for the people of South Sudan, it is an event which will decide their longevity and survival. If the new country is able to embark on a sensible path with certain degree of harmony and peace, it can reap very rich dividends, thanks to its rich oil wealth. On the other, if its internal strife continues to take its toll, it may deteriorate into yet another nightmare – this time even without the massacres of Arab Janjaweed.

On a more optimistic note, South Sudan’s independence may be the most promising event of the year that was 2011.

There is always a silver lining among the dark clouds!

What can be more explicit than the declaration by the Muslim Brotherhood that the agreement consummated by Egypt and Israel, after returning the Sinai to Egypt, has no meaning, and that they are not bound to honor that agreement, nor Israel’s right to exist.

If President Obama continues to adopt a slow-going, unworkable foreign policy throughout the rest of his term as president, Arab springs will, without doubt, become America’s autumn, considering that steps that he has taken so far has regrettably failed. After such a candid declaration, it is my opinion that any further subsidies to Egypt should be considered as a downright farce and an exercise in futility. 

In conclusion, the fall of Hosni Mubarak from power has contributed to yet another problem for which our president is partially responsible.

Egyptian Salafi party will respect the agreement with Israel, In a statement, Nour Party Salafis mention dangerous if Egypt to unilaterally cancel the international agreements. ”In fact, even if the agreement is signed by the previous regime,’’said the official MENA news agency reported.

Egyptian Salafi party will respect the agreement with Israel

Image by Magharebia via Flickr

The party states that honor the agreement does not conflict with the task of the Arab and Islamic Egypt.

Islamic circles are expected to get a majority of seats in Egypt’s first parliamentary elections since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in February.

In the first phase of polling held on 28 and 29 November in nine provinces, the party of the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi party won 60 percent of the vote. In the second phase of voting held this month, both parties also emerged as the top two winners in the poll.

Election Commission chairman, Abdel Ibrahim Moiz, Saturday, December 24, 2011 pm local time saying that wal Hurriyah Party (Ikwanul Muslims) received 36.5 percent of the vote. Meanwhile, An Nur of the Salafi Party won 28.78 percent.

Egyptian Salafi party will respect the agreement with Israel

Image by Brooklyn Museum via Flickr

The future of the Islamic Arab spring does not mean the extinction of liberal policies (Reuters)

Dealt with the British Guardian newspaper of political Islam in her comments and said that it was preparing for its influence on the new world he inherited Arab spring. The success of the Muslim Brotherhood in the first round of Egyptian elections added to the fears of the future of the West, fear of the Islamic Middle East. But this does not necessarily mean that democracy and liberal policies in danger of extinction.

The newspaper said that the era of political Islam that may prove to be one of the most enduring legacies of the Arab spring. It is not only in Egypt reflected the political moment of the Islamists that are not unprecedented. In recent elections, the Tunisian Renaissance Movement Party was more moderate Islamic winners, while Morocco was elected the first Prime Minister of a Muslim is Abdelilah Benkirane. In Yemen and Libya also seems likely that political Islam is the one who will shape the new landscape.

The newspaper quoted a specialist in political Islam, the change was supposed to happen a long time ago. But the question is what does it mean exactly the electoral rise of political Islam in the Middle East and North Africa?

To answer this newspaper pointed out what I wrote Maha Azzam, an associate post at the Chatham House to understand the issues of international prominence that Islam is a political term used to describe two very different directions. The first describes the non-violent quest for a society based on Muslim principles of Islam, which could include a more liberal application of Islamic teachings and traditions, or more stringent interpretation. The second is that political Islam is also linked to violent extremism, which seems obvious in al Qaeda, which promotes terrorism.

The newspaper pointed to the position of the Movement for the Renaissance Tunisian moderate inclination to the Turkish model, which represents moderate Islam embodied in the Justice and Development Party, which was adopted – despite the criticism against him – a pragmatic approach in dealing with secular institutions by seeking to avoid conflict with the military while trying to raise living standards and the economy.

Turkish model
If the Turkish model, according to a domain experts, represents a step forward, the situation of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, clearly point to the enormous challenges facing the Islamic parties are trying to run the country.Has become aware of the group studied, as well as conflict Algeria the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in Gaza with the West.Thus, the Muslim Brotherhood to overcome the obstacle of that difficult period of democratic transition, which clings to the generals in power.

Another expert points out that the Brotherhoodwill focus on economic and social policies, rather than religious and cultural discourse.

That includes the Freedom Party is trying to dojustice and to move in the path of compromise.It supports free markets and private property, while insisting that the state is required to provide protection for the disadvantaged anddemands from trade unions to refrain fromactions that may damage the fragile economy of the country.

Some believe that the Brotherhood will facetremendous external pressure will affect howthe development of policies and identity.

The newspaper concluded that it is possiblethat there will be a positive result that if theBrotherhood was serious in promoting electoral democracy and work hard to address that issue, there will be another election for thosewho disagree with the conservative views (orforeign policy or economic liberalism) to provetheir case.
 

Source: Guardian

Despite repeated proof of the radicalized nature of the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that has advocated the destruction of Israel, the death of homosexuals, a “settlement jihad” against America, as well as insisting women remain as second class citizens, U.S. President Barack Obama intends to pledge full support of the newly forming Egyptian government, going so far as to promise forgiving some 1 billion dollars in debt the Muslim nation currently owes the United States taxpayers. 

The gesture by Obama is what his administration and certain left-leaning media figures are describing as part of the “Arab Spring” – the hopeful spreading of democracy throughout the Middle East.  While this version being perpetrated by the Obama White House appears in stark contrast to the reality of an Egyptian nation now facing a significant shift toward a more radicalized Muslim government, President Obama remains intent on ignoring such a reality in favor of the warm and fuzzy scripted version to be placed inside his ever-present teleprompter.  To say nothing of the fact that the United States has already given billions in free aid to the Egyptian government in past years, only to see that former government toppled and now replaced by one dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood – the very same organization whose leadership stated, “Jihad is our way.”

Of interest in these latest pro-Muslim developments by President Obama is related information from an earlier Ulsterman Report published on February 27th, 2011:

_________

…Despite the information being easily accessed, most Americans are likely still unaware that Valerie Jarrett was born in Iran, and spent her first five years in that country.  Like Barack Obama, Jarrett’s initial experience was not as an American, but an American/Muslim hybrid.  According to an American Spectator report in August of 2008, the Obama campaign had initiated an aggressive program to hide Jarrett’s Iranian background.  This program received significant help from certain media figures who were only too happy to comply with the Obama camp’s request that Jarrett’s Middle East ties were not made a public matter – even as Iranian.com declared Jarrett its “Iranian of the Day” that same month of August.  Also during that same time period, Barack Obama admitted to the New York Times that,  “I trust her (Jarrett) to speak for me, particularly when we’re dealing with delicate issues” and that he ran every important decision by her first.

…So this brings us to more recent events in the Middle East, and the seemingly contradictory message coming out of the Obama White House regarding uprisings throughout that region – and the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood both on those uprisings, and the muddled response of President Obama.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood was constantly rebuked by the Mubarak regime – a regime that had for decades helped keep the peace between the Muslim world and Israel.  Within hours of an uprising breaking out, President Barack Obama, who admitted every decision he makes is first run by Valerie Jarrett, spoke out against longtime American ally Hosni Mubarak and demanded the longtime Egyptian ruler step aside.  It is in Egypt where the Muslim Brotherhood was founded, though since that time it has spread its considerable influence throughout the Muslim world.  President Obama’s very public stance against Mubarak was in stark contrast to uprisings a year earlier in Iran (the birthplace of Valerie Jarrett) that saw a tepid response from the Obama administration – nary a word was spoken against the Iranian regime, or support given to the cause of the protesters.

…A 2010 New York Times article cited the following regarding the Obama administration’s ever increasing involvement with Muslim groups – led of course by Iranian-born Valerie Jarrett:  Muslim and Arab-American advocates have participated in policy discussions and received briefings from top White House aides and other officials on health care legislation, foreign policy, the economy, immigration and national security. They have met privately with a senior White House adviser, Valerie Jarrett. 

…But what of Libya you say?  President Obama did finally speak out in support of the uprising in Libya, more than a week after those protests began.  These statements were read by Barack Obama on February 23rd.  Guess what group spoke for the first time in support of the Libyan uprising just a day prior to Obama’s own words?  The Muslim Brotherhood – they did not give their own official support for the uprising until February 22nd – and only until after that statement from the Muslim Brotherhood came out did Barack Obama personally speak to the issue.

But of course, this is all just more coincidence layered upon more coincidence…right?

_________

AND now we have President Obama moving to forgive a billion dollars in Egyptian debt owed to the American taxpayers as the radical and anti-American Muslim Brotherhood prepares to take a dominant seat at the political table of the newly forming Egyptian government.

Wonder what the Muslim Brotherhood might do with that billion of our tax dollars Obama is so happy to give them?  Perhaps an invasion of Israel?  Or maybe more financial support of jihadist terrorists attempting to do further harm to the United States?

I wish I was kidding folks.  I really do…

Related Article:

The Ulsterman Report: Valerie Jarrett and the Muslim Brotherhood

http://newsflavor.com/politics/us-politics/the-ulsterman-report-valerie-jarrett-and-the-muslim-brotherhood/

More on LatestWorldNews

The new party was called “Freedom and Justice Party, said in a press conference, Mohammed Hussein, Secretary General of the brotherhood born 80 years ago.

The party, which will be headed by a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s political bureau, Mohammed al-Murs, will be required to coordinate its position with those of movement.

The first legislative elections since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak, on 11 February, under pressure from the street, will take place in September.

Muslim Brotherhood, very challenged the power of former President Mubarak, is the main opposition force in Egypt.

Officially banned in politics, in reality the Muslim Brotherhood was tolerated in Egypt, where has an influential network of social support.

More on LatestWorldNews

People who oppose change to the Constitution say it would give more power to the Muslim Brotherhood and perhaps it might even give power to members of the party the people just got rid of.

The Muslim Brotherhood campaigned hard for the people to vote to the Constitution because they and the former party are the most organized  so they stand to gain since other groups and would not be as organized.

There is going to be an interesting campaign season come up as people get together to a political party to run in the election.

The President and Parliament are the most important because they might be the ones to design a new constitution. Those who protested to get Hosni Mubarak out will likely want a new constitution that is radical that will not let the President be the sole ruler of the government.

A top member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces  said their council will issue “a constitutional declaration” after the final vote is announced to figure the next steps and eventually approve a timetable  for president and parliamentary election.

Elections Commission chief Ahmed Attiya 41% of 45 million eligible  voters voted on March 19, 2011. More than 14 million or 77.2% voted yes in changing the constitution. Four million or 22.8 voted against a new constitution.

On March 19, 2011 Egyptians waited hours to vote in its first taste of democracy in half a century.

The Muslim Brotherhood rushed those who didn’t vote to the polls at the last minute.

Egypt has an estimated 8 million Coptic Christians. The leaders of the Coptics told their people to vote against a new constitution because they are afraid of the Muslim Brotherhood and that they will get in power and make a new radical constitution to the point that the Coptic Christians may not be able to worship freely.

Protests in Egypt led to a chain of public protests in Middle East

Protests in Egypt led to Government reactions around the world, from Yemen and to Syria and Libya. It appeared that finally the people in the Middle East had become aware of the value of freedom and democracy, and the days of dictatorships were finally over. As expected, the number of people demanding a greater accountability of authoritarian regimes in different countries has kept growing so far. There have been demands from people in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Yemen, Syria, Bahrain and Libya. Even China has faced some anxious weeks. In many of these countries, people have died protesting, and it appears that more trouble may be in store.

The primary source of inspiration and moral support for protesting masses in different parts of the Middle East is the successful ouster of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt, triggered by angry masses. The historicallegacy of the Middle East and the significance of Egypt therein have contributed to it too. The outcome of Egypt’s transformation has the potential to decide which way the mass views and their aspirations settle finally in the region.

A new equilibrium between Army, Islamists and Pro-Democracy masses

Till now, most people have largely ignored the complex interplay of different forces that led to Mubarak’s ouster. In the fight against Mubarak, three constituencies played a critical role. The Army was the most important factor, simply because, ever since 1952, the power in Egypt has been held by military or its proxies. Even today, the Military rules the roost in Egypt. It was only because the military sided with the protesters that Mubarak had to flee, and given the stakes involved, there could be factors other than their love for democracy that might have driven the Generals against Hosni Mubarak. With Mubarak’s ouster, irrespective of the next ruler and regime, the power and authority of the current Generals is unlikely to get reduced in any foreseeable future.

The second factor in Mubarak’s ouster was the Muslim Brotherhood, which derives its strength primarily from the backing up and support of Ulema and Islamic clergy. It is not a matter of accident that most of the vehement protests happened immediately after the mass prayers, neither can there be any doubt that the resurgent Muslim Brotherhood, once banned and cruelly persecuted by Hosni Mubarak, was instrumental in planning, coordinating and organizing public action against him. With their highly reliable, organised and equally fluid networks, the Islamists may have been the most crucial factor in transforming mass anger into actual demonstrations that finally forced Mubarak to flee.

The third factor, and the one which precipitated the chain of events, were the spontaneous protests that actually began by Coptic Christians and then spread to involve the common masses. There is no doubt that most of the protestors who joined ranks to bring an unprecedented revolution in Egypt were reacting spontaneously, giving expression to their long suppressed frustration and angst against authoritarian misgovernance. These people filled the Tahir square and other public places in Cairo, withstood the pro-Mubarak forces and were the primary factor in deposing President Mubarak. The spontaneous nature of their protests also means that they are not organised politically and hence may not have a very strong say in electoral politics that unfolds in the coming months.

The coming months are likely to witness a lot of manoeuvring by these three claimants of power. The outcome of this struggle will probably decide not only the course of Egypt’s history but may also be crucial for international peace and economic stability.

Saturday referendum allows Military to dictate the changes

While the masses wanted democracy and an end to authoritarianism, it is doubtful that the other two stakeholders in anti-Mubarak rally equally share their sentiments. Army has been a law into itself for over half a century now, and remains so even today, as evidenced by the recent events. There have already been allegations of a so called counter revolution, which is already accused of individually targeting revolutionary pro-democracy leaders, leading to a subtle fear psychosis. Seen together with the way in which the recently held Referendum was organised provides insights that may not be very encouraging for the future of democracy in Egypt.

The Saturday Referendum gave an option to the forty five million eligible voters of Egypt to cast a vote either in favour or against the nine constitutional amendments that were drawn up by a panel of military appointed legal scholars and intended to bring only a minimal change in the current constitution, primarily related to the selection and powers of the President.

One of the senior-most members of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces stated in an interview with daily El-Shorouk that the council will be issuing a constitutional declaration soon after the results of Referendum were declared. Interestingly, he also announced that if the people accepted the proposed amendments, a timetable will be set for parliamentary elections, whereas in case the Referendum was rejected by the people of Egypt, the armed forces might retain the power of next two years or so.

The effect that such announcements could have made on the Referendum is not difficult to fathom.  The proposed amendments were heavily opposed by most of the revolutionary leaders, pro-democracy supporters and the youth coalition that led most of the protests against Mubarak. These include Amr Moussa, the outgoing Chief of Arab League and a contender for the post of President, and Mohamed Elbaradei, Nobel laureate and former Chief of International Atomic Energy Agency.  The same stand was also taken by most of political opposition of Egypt, including parties like Tagammu, al-Ghad and al-Wafd. Yet, journalistic interviews prior to the Referendum showed that the people preferred the option of initiating parliamentary processes, even with limited reforms, over the prospect of being governed by the Military for the next two years, as that could have negated the whole public uprising for democracy for all times to come.

The only political parties which canvassed for a ‘yes’ vote prior to the Referendum were the former ruling National Democratic Party  of Mubarak supporters and the Muslim Brotherhood. The critics point to their better political organisation of both of them as the prime reason for their stand. Having been in power for a long while, the National Democratic Party was expected to have better resources and experience of electoral politics, and as an erstwhile ruling party, expected to support minimal changes to the current constitution. It is the stand of Muslim Brotherhood that evokes greater interest. It was banned by Mubarak a few decades back, but has always been a strong organisation, primarily deriving its roots from its allegiance to Sharia and Islamic tenets. It knows it strengths and having succeeded in ousting Mubarak, knows it is one of the few serious claimants to power in Egypt today.

Thanks to the way in which the Referendum was designed and conducted, the army and the Muslim brotherhood have already won the first round of this on-going struggle for ascendancy, leaving pro-democracy leaders far behind.

Muslim brotherhood and Military – will the deal work ?

Muslim brotherhood may not be looking to grab power in the short run. Its agenda is far more complex and interconnected with support groups not only across the Middle East but across the  whole of this planet. It does not accept modern democracy as acceptable under Islam, and would like to have its own form of it, with restricted participation of non-Muslims and women. Yet, as of now, it is happy with the current form of democracy, since it will let it establish itself in the sparsely occupied political space of a newly democratic Egypt, and more importantly, allow it to enforce its own preferences in the Egyptian polity.

The military, on the other hand, may also prefer to call the shots from the sidelines, instead of making itself accountable to the demanding public, particularly after the recent events. So far, it can claim to have two major successes in the middle of all hullaballoo. First, it has continued to cling to power by sacrificing Mubarak, who in any case was an old hand and might have become an obstacle to the younger generation of Generals. Second, it has been able to control the Referendum as per its own preferences, and in the process, already undermined the pro-democracy leaders like Amr Moussa and Mohamed Elbaradei as well as exposed the fragility of the hold of revolutionary groups on people’s psyche.

Given the public sentiment against Mubarak’s regime, it is highly unlikely that the National Democratic Party will come back to power in the next general elections, whenever they are held. Given the divided and unorganised nature of pro-democracy forces, which will only worsen further in the next elections, political proxy of the Muslim brotherhood is likely to emerge as one of the major political forces in Egypt. Given its strong organisational roots and the support of religious leaders that it enjoys, one can expect it to not only retain its dominance, but also take Egypt in a direction that it prefers.

As of now, the Military and the Muslim Brotherhood seem to be working to achieve the same end. Once the electoral process is over, it will be interesting to see how their relations evolve and sustain. In all probability, they may not have a great difficulty in sharing power, as together they can rule Egypt for a very long time.

Where does it leaves Democracy ?

Democracy is as yet more a matter of curiosity and rhetoric for most of Egyptians. What they resent is authoritarianism and bad governance. During the recent protests, they have already given vent to their unexpressed angst, and as the Referendum shows clearly, they want the country to move on. What is likely to matter more to them is not the party that wins the elections, or the ideology that it adopts and propagates, but the manner in which it runs the Government and deals with them. At a more sceptical level, what will really matter is the manner in which the next ruling party is able to engage people and manoeuvre their political aspirations and internal divide to keep them at bay.

As of now, Egypt is going to have an electoral process and a democratically elected ruler. Beyond that what happens will depend on who is that ruler and where does he wish to take the country.

Regional and Global Implications

Post Referendum, the debate in Egypt will shift to whether the democracy can deliver. If it fails, people may end up rejecting it as a model, while if it works with Muslim Brotherhood at the helm, Egypt may end up finally with its own Islamic version of democracy. Either way, it is a model that may get widely followed in other countries where the protests and demands for participative politics is growing every day.

As things stand today, while democracy gets established, the leaders who promoted it are unlikely to get a chance to run it, nor is anyone in a position to ensure that it remains free from the influence of Military and religious interference.  Sooner or later, the ascendancyof Muslim brotherhood will lead to challenging of Western influence in the region, and create a risk of renewing offensive against Israel, which has always been a fundamentalal objective of the Brotherhood. Already it is calling for renegotiating gas supply to Israel. As things move on, things can possibly worsen further.

Any such event can bring immense turmoil throughout a world that has already become more fragile than it ever was in the last fifty years. Speculative bubble in crude prices can halt the ongoing global economic recovery. More importantly, it can push the Middle East back by a few centuries once again, which will increase the influence of forces like Taliban, Al Qaida and pose a long term threat to global peace. At this stage, no one can predict the place and time where major confrontations may get precipitated, but wherever and whenever they happen, they can be enough to become a turning point of our history.

(Image via Wikipedia)