We want to enjoy the progress and brilliant technique. But let’s be fair. Everyone on this earth is to share. We continue to live lavishly. Despite all the warnings, energy, water, raw materials, earth to be wasted, even before we have something like this. But we have to pay the bill anyway. This waste is not only expensive, they are destroying our livelihoods and resource base.

“True, the treasures of the Earth! Mobilise the Earth!” That’s the motto of Earth Day 2012th

In the course of the depletion of natural resources of the earth materials are becoming an increasingly important and increasingly valuable asset. For example, among the “rare earths” the most valuable commodities in the world. They have exceptional properties and are indispensable for the sustainable future of technology. But so far, lead extraction and processing of rare earths to massive environmental damage – a prime example of wasted resources and pollution. That needs to change radically! Clean and friendly mining, efficient and sustainable use, maximum recycling and global fair distribution are the focus.

“The treasures of the earth mean the variety of all life,” said Earth Day President Thomas Dannemann, “which will also include the unique biodiversity, the richness of the natural resources of land and water on all continents of this earth, we must not allow that individual interests dominate! “

High efficiency means profit!

We need not only huge increases in the productivity of energy, raw materials and transport. We need the highest efficiency for energy and raw materials. For saving resources means profit.

Efficiency has explosive power. Metals, water, oil, natural world and local consumption are subject to an arms race. Who tried to innovate ingenious efficiency gains and not only its independence.

We need goals and standards!

Earth Day to call: we need objectives for sustainable living. Rio +20 in 2012 to be the turning point. Really!

The Earth Summit “Environment and Development” in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 has created a common platform for all countries in the world by the Agenda 21. It commits national governments to the sustainable objectives of the 40 chapters of Agenda 21 locally to implement, in cooperation with local authorities and all citizens, social groups, associations and companies in the industry. Lot has happened since then. But not enough! 20 years after the Earth Summit in Rio, in June 2012 in Rio de Janeiro at the UN conference, “Rio plus 20″ took stock.

Now everyone on Earth Day is called “Committed to you – Mobilise the Earth!”

We need clear goals for maximum resource efficiency and sustainable industrial development at the highest level. Especially the companies in the world economy are the requirements for sustainable goals.

“Pushing the limits! Order to accelerate sustainable industries and sustainable industrial development, it requires effective measures,” Earth Day President Thomas Dannemann emphasizes the occasion of Earth Day 2012th “People should know what an honest, viable, sustainable strategy in the company indicating the tone.”

Consider use of fair trade and the environment should not be the end of the “beautiful” life. What really counts is the reduction of our footprint on this planet. Waiver is for us to recognize the use of new technologies, common sense, continuous learning to the contexts of our life on earth and care for our earth. Better quality of life means buy wisely and strategically, saving bio-products from the region, ecological clothing, travel, protect the climate, the buildings energy and renewable energy sources that make the economy legs. Environmental awareness means profit. These are the positive aspects of a new lifestyle.

Environmental awareness should aim at a progressive, pleasurable, responsible and modern living.

Creates incentives for environmentally friendly living in the greater city. Give the new species of animals and plants survive. Uses the sun in the canyons of skyscrapers. Breaks the seals on the inner cities and to give priority natural areas in the city center. Creates a lot more privileges for pedestrians and bicycles invested and where resources are used sustainably efficient: all of this with minimum negative impact on the environment.

Earth Day is held annually on 22 April is to take place in over 150 countries. The Earth Day slogan, “Think globally, act locally”, should make it clear that this is not just about today’s well-being of people. Healthy soil means healthy environment and livable place for the future. This means a realization of the vision of the UN Earth Summit in Rio in 1992 in the cities and towns, the place of residence.

every Earth Day to find a variety of actions on “climate change” instead. The Earth Day Stuttgart Coordination Unit of the Institute Dr. Flad organizes the events in Stuttgart with the participation of organizations like the Environmental Protection Agency, the Agenda Office, various environmental groups such as the ADFC, Greenpeace, Stuttgart, solar, UNICEF and schools as Hegel-Gymnasium and Merz school.

Stars like Leanordo DiCaprio and Jane Fonda, leading experts from the UN and politicians such as former U.S. Vice President Al Gore are advocates of the global Earth Day activities take place findenen on climate change.

The decades to follow will be a more challenging time, however, with wealth among nations measured differently than before.  Continued prosperity of industrialized and emerging nations will be measured more by access to limited natural resources than by the value of finished goods produced or types of services available.  It will be a time when “back to basics” austerity replaces the “sky’s the limit” philosophy prevalent throughout the latter twentieth century. 

Although a consensus of opinion that the world faces some type of resource or energy shortage within the next few years is gaining acceptance, no great sense of urgency to deal with it in a coordinated manner is apparent.  For example, there are meaningful initiatives aimed at energy conservation, such as replacing incandescent light bulbs with more efficient fluorescent lighting and reducing dependence on foreign oil by growing corn for ethanol production, and marginal ideas such as inflating automobile tires to their recommended air pressure.  There is also growing public awareness that more energy could be saved by increasing the efficiency of electric power generation and transmission system infrastructure, leveraging technology to control residential and business lighting and air conditioning, and encouraging widespread acceptance of telecommuting.  As no good deed goes unpunished, however, an increased reliance on telecommuting negatively impacts the travel, airline and hospitality industries. 

While increased awareness is a step in the right direction, ad hoc actions are not elements of a coordinated energy strategy.  A detailed and cohesive national strategy requires considerable planning and cooperation between private industry and government to succeed.  And the longer the delay in developing and implementing the needed plans of action, the more costly and time-consuming a meaningful strategy becomes.

Back to Basics

Americans regard a high standard of living and uninterrupted prosperity as inalienable rights.  However, issues of maintaining access to, and availability of, basic commodities threaten continued growth and prosperity taken for granted in the United States and throughout the industrialized world.  Such issues are shared by developing nations as well, but viewed from a different perspective.  They believe that while their own standard of living is improving, the standard of living enjoyed by large industrialized nations is maintained at their expense.

Although there may be no direct correlation, it is conceivable that a rising global standard of living has actually postponed re-occurrence of such widespread natural catastrophes.  Ironically, vastly improved health and prosperity enjoyed today may in time be responsible for devastating pandemics or other unmanageable calamities triggered by ease of global mobility.  The last great pandemic of 1918, for example, would have been much worse had people been able to travel around the world then as we do on a routine basis today.  Conspiracy theorists consider effects of such global catastrophes as well as contamination of public water supplies by fertilizer runoff, dispersal of virulent strains of avian influenza by mosquitoes, consumption of genetically modified crops triggering life-threatening illnesses, and exportation of foodstuffs sprayed with harmless preservatives that interact toxically with certain spices or beverages consumed in other countries as non-attributable ways modern society reduces the global population today, and reduces competition for limited natural resources in the future.    

In reality, economic and social disparity between “have” and “have-not” nations in a highly interconnected world is only resolved by meaningful cooperation among all nations.  However, the unprecedented level of cooperation needed will be extremely difficult to achieve, especially as declining global supplies of raw materials and basic commodities trigger suspicion and animosity among neighboring nations, allies, and potential adversaries.    

Basic commodities include all manner of natural resources, renewable and non-renewable, and agricultural products from cottonseed oil to cows.  Typical sources of fuel, including crude oil, coal, and natural gas are examples of non-renewable natural resources.  Agricultural products include a variety of consumable foodstuffs, such as corn, wheat and soybeans, as well as livestock and poultry.  While typically consumed as food, edible crops and vegetation are increasingly used as fuel around the world as well.  As a result, a combination of basic commodities today play a role in providing an uninterrupted supply of energy for automobiles, homes, businesses and industry.  As the developed world knows, and the developing world is learning, availability of natural resources and continuity of energy are significant factors in continued growth and prosperity.  These are fundamental distinctions between “have” and “have-not” nations. 

Regardless of rapidly falling prices for oil and gasoline in the second half of 2008, triggered by the onset of a worldwide economic recession, crude oil prices are actually on a long-term upward trend due to a global decline in exploration and production.  As economic activity rebounds, crude oil supply and demand imbalances experienced by individual nations will eventually become globally significant.  Rising petroleum and gasoline prices will spawn renewed large-scale research in, and development of, all manner of alternative fuels and energy sources.  While analysts contend that a renewed focus on alternative energy is the beginning of a sea change in global energy production and distribution, dramatic changes requiring integration of alternative energy solutions will prove costly and time-consuming.  Money and time are critical commodities already in short supply.   

It is indeed a valid statement that the world will never run out of oil.  The presence of crude oil is not the issue, but rather the rate of production from new and existing fields.  In the United States, for example, oil will be pumped from underground and offshore fields for years to come, but the amount of oil produced from domestic fields has steadily declined since peak production occurred in 1970.  Even though oil is still available, it can no longer be extracted in sufficient quantities on a daily basis to meet domestic demand.  This situation will be repeated as peak production is reached among oil exporting nations around the world.  Global demand will inevitably exceed available supply.

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In spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, a number of well-meaning industry analysts contend that well over half of the world’s endowment of crude oil remains after more than 150 years of exploration and production.  In contrast, a larger body of industry analysts contends that global reserves of petroleum will be depleted between 2030 and 2040, based on projected rates of consumption over the next 30 years.  This sobering prospect reinforces the need for developing renewable and alternative energy sources as the most effective, long-term means of reducing our global dependence on rapidly depleting fossil fuels.

Every nation, including the United States, is tempted to pursue unilateral solutions to resolve issues associated with declining supplies of natural resources.  Although unilateral actions provide short-term solutions, economies of all nations are affected over the longer term unless global trading partners work together to find common solutions.  While the United States would be reluctant to consume less crude oil to allow the rest of the world to consume more, a longer term perspective considers that this very action may be necessary to maintain stability of the global economy and reduce the potential for conflicts among nations. 

Main Power Switch

Nearly all modes of transportation, from automobiles to aircraft, depend on gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.  Petroleum products are used extensively in heavy industry, manufacturing, and in chemical and fertilizer production as well.  Supply shortages would affect transportation and manufacturing much more seriously than the power generation industry, as usage declined in the wake of the oil shocks of the 1970s and still further by the early 1990s.  Today, only about three percent of domestic electricity is generated by oil.  

Most electrical power produced in the United States today is generated from coal, nuclear energy, natural gas, and hydroelectric sources.  These sources are primarily relied on to provide sustainable baseload power, which is dependable electrical power continuously available day and night for residential, commercial and industrial use.  Of the four main sources, only hydroelectric power is renewable.  While other renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind, are not typically relied on to generate baseload power today, their use in providing peak and baseload electrical power will increase in the coming decade.

The United States has not yet embraced alternative energy as a means of providing reliable baseload power, as has already been done in parts of Western Europe and Asia.  For example, Germany is one of the largest users of wind and solar power in the world.  Through favorable subsidies and renewable energy incentives for the power industry supported by the central government, Germans receive a guaranteed long-term return on investment in alternative energy.

As renewable energy technology improves, alternative sources will augment baseload power generation region by region across the country.  Use of intelligent power monitoring and adaptive loading transmission systems, part of a nationwide power system overhaul and upgrade, will leverage electricity produced by alternative sources rapidly and efficiently.  Over time, integrated solar and wind sources will be brought on stream to support regional peak and baseload power demands.  Greater reliance on renewable resources ensures continuous available power at less cost per kilowatt-hour, reducing the need to construct additional coal-fired and nuclear energy plants to meet anticipated demand for electrical power in the future. 

In the United States, 50 percent of baseload electrical power is generated by coal, while nuclear energy and natural gas each provide an additional 19 percent.  The remaining 12 percent is generated by hydroelectric, oil and renewable sources.  Peak load electricity is typically generated by natural gas; however, use of renewable energy sources is increasing.  Although most domestic nuclear power plants have exceeded their expected life spans, no new nuclear facilities have been built in the United States in 30 years.  Most coal-fired power plants are about 40 years old, and while continually upgraded to meet emissions regulations, still pollute considerably more than newer plants. 

Due to a dependence on coal to provide much of our baseload power, advanced research and development of technologies to further reduce emissions is needed.  Four methods generally relied on to reduce pollution caused by burning coal include plant emission control and scrubbing technologies, coal gasification, pre- and post-combustion technologies, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon sequestration.  Clean coal initiatives actively supported today focus on ultra-pulverized coal firing, fluidized-bed combustion, and integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) technologies.  IGCC and its variants are promoted by the industry as the most promising options to cost-effectively reduce pollution from coal in the future.

At current rates of consumption, the United States has sufficient coal reserves to last between 100 and 200 years, and enough high-grade uranium ore to fuel nuclear power plants for several more decades.  However, proper disposal and storage of waste products from coal-fired and nuclear plants are pressing issues today for all nations.

Competition for suitable grades of uranium used in power plants and nuclear-powered naval vessels will become more intense as the quality of ore declines.  Dwindling supplies of suitable nuclear fuel will become the next crude oil crisis less than three decades from now.  There are approximately 450 nuclear power plants worldwide, supplying about 16 percent of the world’s electrical power.  Over 100 of these plants are in the United States, producing about 20 percent of our electricity.  All of these plants require uranium-235 fuel, which makes up less than one percent of all natural uranium ore found worldwide.  Expenses for all nuclear plants over their lifetime include building, maintenance, and decommissioning after about 30 to 40 years of operation.  Radioactive waste produced by these plants requires storage for more than 10,000 years.    

Hydroelectric power plants generate about seven percent of electricity used in the United States.  Most of the power produced comes from four major dams, all located in the western part of the country.  These dams include the Grand Coulee, Chief Joseph, John Day, and the Hoover.  Although the most suitable sites for large dams have been developed already, expansion of hydroelectric capacity to provide additional baseload power should still be considered in the future, although not as a primary alternative.

In addition to hydroelectric power generation along the Oregon-Washington border, several collocated commercial wind farms are nearing completion or are already in operation throughout the region.  The Shepherds Flat Wind Farm, for example, will be the largest such project in the Columbia River Gorge.  Generating about 750 megawatts of electricity, it will supply power to nearly 190,000 residential customers.  Other wind farms, capable of generating 200 megawatts or more, are planned or nearing completion in the Northwest.  Blended wind and hydroelectric power is only one example of effective integration of conventional and alternative power generation.  

Food as Fuel

Prices for all types of basic commodities are generally influenced by market demand, including prices for wheat and other agricultural products exported from the United States.  Since 2005, however, less wheat from the United States has been available on global markets as an increasing number of farmers convert their fields to grow corn as feedstock for ethanol production.  While demand for all agricultural products has steadily risen, surplus production from the United States and other major food exporting nations, with the exception of Argentina, has decreased.  This has led to rising prices for all basic food products domestically and worldwide.  As other commodity prices rise in a spiraling effect, the impact is especially painful among less developed countries.   

The United States and Western Europe have been criticized around the world for triggering widespread and devastating food shortages since 2006, affecting countries from Egypt and Malaysia to Mexico and Haiti.  Such criticism stems from a rising demand for biofuels in the United States and mandates under consideration in Europe to significantly increase biofuel production in a few years.  Global food prices increased dramatically in 2008 due to a combination of poor harvests, increasing prices of crude oil and refined products, growing demand for costly agricultural and poultry products in India and China, and diversion of edible crops for use as biofuels.  Commodity nationalism, in the form of outdated trade policies, and restrictive subsidies for rice, wheat, and corn production contribute to higher food prices as well.  Perhaps this is an area where the United States and Europe actually deserve a modicum of criticism.

Prices for basic commodities in a global marketplace, from rice to crude oil, are managed more effectively when reserve inventory is readily available to correct temporary imbalances in supply and demand.  Deliberate and coordinated global initiatives are urgently needed to increase global crop production at a time of accelerating demand for agricultural products consumed by industrialized and emerging nations as both food and fuel. 

International efforts aimed at reducing or eliminating domestic crop subsidies and export bans are critical to mitigating effects of food shortages in the future.  Rapid price escalations of basic commodities such as wheat, corn, rice, and cooking oil caused by drought or poor harvests are better managed when adequate stockpiles of food are readily available for distribution.  For example, the worldwide food crisis in the spring of 2008 was more acute due to insufficient food reserves available in the United States, Europe and Asia for distribution in affected regions.

The diversion of food to produce biofuel also impacts availability of consumables for export.  Ethanol production in industrialized and emerging nations has significantly reduced stockpiles of wheat, rice and corn.  As a result, even a short-term regional food shortage triggers dramatic price increases for basic commodities.  At a time when less arable land and fresh water are available to grow crops worldwide, more of the world’s food is converted into fuel.  Food and energy costs become highly interdependent as domestic agriculture accelerates a shift to producing biofuel.  Corn used to produce ethanol is a better source of revenue for farmers than growing wheat as a consumable crop.  Commodity markets become overly influenced by weather conditions around the world, with early snowfalls or droughts in one region affecting prices for food and fuel worldwide.  

Ethanol from corn is more energy-intensive to produce than from sugarcane, however, and the roughly six billion gallons produced in the United States each year replaces only a fraction of the 146 billion gallons of gasoline consumed.  Based on a standard barrel of 42 gallons, America consumes about 882 million gallons, or about 21 million barrels, of crude oil daily.  Brazil consumes less than two million barrels per day to meet its transportation needs.  Although biofuel production is still a growing industry, corn ethanol alone cannot replace gasoline in the United States.  Even Bill Gates, an advocate of alternative energy, ended his support of biofuel by severing a business relationship with Pacific Ethanol, a company he had invested in heavily several years ago. 

Replacing 146 billion gallons of gasoline with corn ethanol requires nearly 350 million acres of corn to be grown.  A report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture indicates that American farmers expect to harvest 87.3 million acres of corn in 2008, a decrease of seven percent from the 2007 harvest of 93.6 million acres.  At a minimum, 75 million acres are needed to grow corn as food.  Ethanol yield from sugarcane is double that of corn, therefore, sugarcane is more energy efficient.  In addition, constant irrigation is not necessary to grow sugarcane as is the case with corn.  Availability of fresh water for irrigation is already an issue of concern in many areas of the United States.

Importing ethanol from Brazil to replace dwindling supplies of crude oil from the Middle East over the next five to ten years is an excellent medium-term option for the United States to consider.  Considering the small amount of land presently used in Brazil to produce both food and fuel, impact on global food prices resulting from increased importation of sugarcane-based ethanol would be insignificant.   

The United States should consider a balanced and diligent approach to conversion of food into fuel as a critical element of a comprehensive energy policy.  Likewise, the European Union should also consider long-term economic and political ramifications of vaguely defined mandates requiring increased biofuel production in the coming decade.  Access to and availability of fresh water is already a concern of many nations, but will become a global issue as the world attempts to increase crop yields on available farmland.  As once fertile fields in China are consumed by the concrete and steel of its newest cities, vast expanses of farmland are created in South America by burning and clearing millions of acres of irreplaceable rain forest.  Enormous amounts of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere by razing the rain forest, raising the specter of global warming as a consequence of creating more farmland to raise crops consumed as food and fuel.   

In the short- and medium-term, international discussion among developed and underdeveloped nations should focus on:

-  Anticipating and/or recovering from poor harvests

-  Effectively managing or eliminating restrictive domestic subsidies and  

   protective export bans

-  Managing the steadily increasing demand from emerging nations for a larger

   share of global production of crops, poultry and livestock

-  Reducing the worldwide diversion of edible crops from food to fuel, and

-  Decoupling the rising price of crude oil from food production, especially in

   terms of escalating fertilizer prices and harvesting costs.

In a world where resource nationalism is becoming acceptable political and social behavior, the window of opportunity to resolve global issues of scarcity of basic commodities is quickly closing.

Over time, worldwide energy conservation will become necessary as a means of managing runaway inflation caused by escalating food and fuel costs.  While alternative energy technology will improve out of necessity, some renewable energy sources will be preferable over others based on costs of development.  For example, coal-to-liquids synthetic fuel production, and wind and solar power generation will be further refined, while large-scale efforts to extract commercial quantities of hydrogen from feedstocks such as natural gas and coal will either be postponed or abandoned. 

Strategic Blueprint

Sustaining growth and prosperity of industrialized and emerging nations alike depends on access to and availability of all types of raw materials and basic commodities.  In a petroleum-based global economy, however, dwindling supplies of crude oil will have a profound and pervasive impact on the economic and political well-being of nations in ways not yet foreseen.  A significant challenge for the United States and the rest of the world is to transition from crude oil and other non-renewable natural resources with a minimum of economic and social disruption.  As part of this transition, international cooperation to manage all types of resources, from natural gas and uranium, to fertile farmland and fresh water will be required.  However, even a modicum of international cooperation may prove to be the most difficult challenge of all. 

Effective management of dwindling natural resources and implementation of a national energy policy for the next decade is based on a deliberate strategy of:

-  Conserving resources

-  Substituting non-renewable with renewable resources

-  Augmenting dwindling resources with more plentiful resources, and

-  Improving efficiency to better utilize all available resources.

Comprehensive energy policy planning is based on a balance of: identifying issues, exploring viable options to resolve those issues, and then generating decisive action plans leveraging the best information available.  However, successful policies are built on more than a single decision made or an action taken by government.  Examples of single actions perceived as an energy plan include legislation to tax oil company profits, and drawing down the inventory of our strategic petroleum reserve to reduce the price of gasoline.  Such spontaneous, uncoordinated actions are little more than ineffective, short-term fixes for a complex long-term problem and do not constitute an energy plan.     

Implementing a strategic energy policy is challenging and time-consuming, due to the large number of critical tasks coordinated and undertaken at virtually the same time.  Key elements of this policy, such as conserving oil and other non-renewable resources, increasing our reliance on wind, solar and other renewable energy sources, untangling the relationship between food and fuel production, providing incentives for alternative energy development, and leveraging new and innovative technologies are presented as a series of interdependent policy initiatives.  Working together, policy initiatives support key objectives of our national energy policy. 

  National Energy Policy Objectives

-  Reduction in domestic crude oil consumption by 50 percent by 2020

-  Increase in capacity of strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) to 1.5 billion barrels

   of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) grade and Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)  

   light sweet grade crude oil by 2025

-  Reduction of global food shortages caused by indiscriminant diversion of

   agricultural output to produce biofuels by 2015

-  Significant reduction in the deforestation of the Amazon basin and other

   endangered regions to grow crops for use as biofuel feedstock by 2020

-  Increase in stockpiles of corn- and sugarcane-based ethanol to augment

   reductions in gasoline production through 2021

-  Significant increase in baseload and peak electrical power generation by

   integrating wind, solar, and geothermal power plants with new or modified coal,

   nuclear, and hydroelectric power facilities

-  Establishment and enforcement of long-term standards for energy efficiency,

   greenhouse gas emissions, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) for new

   and existing coal-fired power plants

-  Increase in natural gas supplies for domestic consumption through

   sequestration and storage of stranded deposits worldwide and from

   development of unconventional sources

-  Substantial expansion and modernization of the national electrical power

   switching, transmission and distribution system, and

-  Federal government support and funding provided through 2020 for:

a)  National freight and passenger rail system improvements, and

     interconnection of transcontinental freight rail lines and deep-

     water seaports located on East, West and Gulf coasts

b)  Clean energy and alternative fuel development incentives and

     tax credits

c)  Conventional and alternative fuel efficiency technology

     initiatives, and

d)     Incentive tax credits (ITCs) and new construction credits for renewable energy projects. 

Initiative One:Long-Term Energy Conservation Strategy

Consumption of crude oil in the United States is reduced 15 percent by the end of 2013, based on a 2008 consumption level of 20.5 million barrels per day (mbpd).  Consumption is reduced by five percent each year after 2013 through 2020, for a total reduction of 50 percent from the consumption level in 2008. 

Initiative Two:  Expanding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)

Resume pumping 70,000 barrels per day of light crude oil from offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico into four SPR sites currently available, and begin pumping a minimum of 60,000 barrels per day into an expanded SPR from oil obtained from other domestic sources, including Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) production beginning in late 2017.  Development of oil reserves in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) is supported if proven oil reserves are of sufficient quantity to justify cost of exploration and production as well as potential disruption of natural wildlife habitats.

Significantly increase the capacity of the domestic Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil by locating and preparing additional underground storage facilities in the South and Midwest.  Additional SPR storage capacity would be developed and available no later than 2014.   

Initiative Three:Global Food and Biofuel Production Protocol

Group of Eight (G8) industrialized nations convenes a global food production summit to focus further on two key topics of the High-Level Conference on World Food Security held in Rome in June 2008.  Summit agenda includes a critical evaluation of protective export bans and tariffs in place among key food producers and regional impact of consumable grains used to produce biofuel.

Initiative Four:Preserving the World’s Rainforests

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member nations, through sponsorship of the United States, actively petition OPEC member nations to increase direct food aid contributions and indirect monetary and humanitarian investment in the Amazon basin and other areas endangered by indiscriminate deforestation identified by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Initiative Five:Increasing Electrical Power by Energy Diversity

Implement an aggressive domestic energy diversity strategy to rapidly increase baseload and peak electrical power generation capacity through integration of upgraded coal-fired, nuclear, and hydroelectric power plants with wind, solar and geothermal power plants.  Transmission system upgrades and new infrastructure installation are key criteria for upgrades or modifications of existing power plants or installation of new renewable and non-renewable fuel power plants.

Initiative Six:Long-Term Natural Gas Supply and Storage Strategy

Develop and implement a full-spectrum strategy for ensuring sufficient supplies of natural gas are available in the next decade for power generation, transportation, residential and industrial use, leveraging a combination of political and economic approaches. 

Initiative Seven: Fueling Domestic Transportation Needs

Establish and maintain sufficient domestic fuel reserves to support a transition from an oil-based economy during the next decade.  Multiple petroleum and ethanol fuel sources are required to build sufficient domestic capacity to support automobile and aviation needs, which decline over time but are not eliminated.  Ethanol from corn, grain, switchgrass, and biomass feedstock is primarily produced in the Midwest, and sugarcane-based ethanol is produced in Florida and Hawaii and/or imported from Brazil.

Key provisions of the seventh initiative, building on success of the previous six policy initiatives, are summarized below:

-  Domestic crude oil conservation program begins in 2009; consumption

   decreases 15 percent by 2013

-  National electrical power generation expansion and transmission infrastructure

   modernization program begins in 2009

-  Production of crude oil from specified regions of the outer continental shelf

   (OCS) begins by late 2017; aggressive exploration and development activities

   begin in 2009 along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts and the Gulf of Mexico

-  Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) storage capacity increases to 1.5 billion

   barrels; replenishment of crude oil from Gulf Coast offshore sources into

   existing SPR resumes in 2009

-  Development of Brazilian ethanol production infrastructure begins in 2010;

   importation of 10 billion gallons annually begins by 2013

-  Global sequestering and storage of stranded natural gas for use in domestic

   power generation and hybrid vehicles scheduled to begin in 2010

-  Target of five percent of domestic vehicles to be plug-in hybrids by 2013

-  Expanded SPR capacity substantially increases as OCS and unconventional

   oil production comes on stream by 2017, and

-  Brazilian ethanol importation and domestic biofuel production begin declining

   by late 2021.

An Integrated Strategy

The seven policy initiatives outlined above are integral parts of a comprehensive energy strategy for:

-  Conserving petroleum in an era of dwindling foreign crude oil supplies

-  Expanding domestic reserves of crude oil to offset future supply interruptions or  

   shortfalls

-  Ensuring availability of global supplies of both consumable food and biofuel

-  Reducing global destruction of irreplaceable rainforests and grasslands to grow

   crops 

-  Augmenting electrical power generation with renewable energy resources

-  Increasing reserves of natural gas from domestic and global sources, and

-  Implementing a long-term strategy to satisfy transportation fuel needs.

Day One Decisions

The following recommendations summarize critical day one decisions made by the President and Congress to implement a comprehensive national energy policy for the next decade.   

-  The President launches a national energy conservation program, beginning in  

   2009 and extending through the next decade

Clearly defined and decisive action by the United States is essential to significantly reduce economic and political impact when global peak oil production is evident or publicly acknowledged by major oil producing nations or petroleum industry monitoring organizations in a few years.  Global acceptance that the United States was fully aware of the situation well in advance and acted proactively is far more beneficial than a perception that our nation was caught unaware and forced to respond reactively without an action plan.  Reducing crude oil consumption by 50 percent by 2020 is not an arbitrary goal, but is based on estimating the rate of production decline of the top five oil exporters to the United States over the next decade.

Even if substantial quantities of petroleum from newly discovered offshore fields in Brazil, China, Russia and other nations come on stream during the next decade, additional costs of exploration and production will be passed along to consumers.  New sources of oil discovered on land or beneath the ocean surface are increasingly expensive to produce.  Through a long-term plan that steadily reduces demand in the United States, however, our government is better positioned to manage effects of higher petroleum and gasoline prices in the future as opposed to being manipulated by them.    

-  The President and Congress authorize exploration of the outer continental

   shelf (OCS) to locate, assess and develop oil reserves present in offshore oil   

   fields along the Atlantic, Pacific and Gulf Coasts

The majority of detailed topological maps of potential offshore oil deposits along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts are incomplete or out-of-date.  Diligent exploration of the OCS provides highly reliable information for decision-makers in the federal government to determine suitable locations for further assessment or actual development of reserves, currently estimated to exceed 86 billion barrels of light sweet crude oil.  Initial development efforts focus on minimizing environmental impacts identified in assessments.  Offshore areas for exploration and production are selected by size of probable reserves, estimated overall production costs, and amount of time needed to reach full production.  

-  The President and Congress endorse legislation to extend federal incentive tax

   credits (ITCs) for alternative energy projects, especially for geothermal, wind  

   and solar power generation, through 2020

A number of significant alternative energy projects have been postponed or terminated prior to completion due to a decision by Congress not to renew alternative energy incentive tax credits that expired at the end of 2008.  America’s continued growth and prosperity depends on leveraging a prudent combination of renewable and non-renewable sources of energy, therefore, expeditious approval and support of ITCs by the federal government is a straightforward action with immediate favorable consequences.  The solar power industry is especially sensitive to lack of continuity in granting credits from one year to the next.  However, solar power proponents successfully lobbied the federal government to provide funding for incentives for the next eight years, which industry experts consider enough time for solar power to become price-competitive with traditional non-renewable power generation.  ITCs refund approximately 30 percent of solar power installation construction costs.                 

-  Congress endorses binding and unambiguous legislation of federal standards

   for carbon dioxide and other pollutants to encourage new power plant    

   construction and modification of existing coal-fired power plants

Proliferation of natural gas-fired power plants since the mid-1990s to the present has been driven largely by ill-defined and conflicting federal and state regulations on greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration of carbon dioxide and other pollutants produced by coal-fired power plants.  Since 2000, clean-coal initiatives have significantly reduced pollution levels from coal-fired power plants; however, utility companies are uncertain whether or not to fully implement changes due to often contradictory federal and state clean air standards.  Therefore, clearly defined environmental initiatives such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) are essential. 

-  The President eliminates the 54 cents per gallon tariff on imported ethanol to

   promote a cooperative joint venture with Brazil for importation of 10 billion

   gallons of sugarcane-based ethanol by 2013

Elimination of the 54 cents per gallon tariff on imported ethanol is an initial action in a long-term cooperative economic venture with Brazil.  Once the tariff is eliminated, planning activities for the construction of needed production and distribution infrastructure for Brazilian ethanol begins.  The United States simultaneously initiates discussions with potential partners in Europe and Asia about roles and responsibilities in a cooperative economic joint venture with the Brazilian government. 

As a related but separate action, the President requests a detailed feasibility assessment of substantially increasing production of ethanol from sugarcane grown in Florida and Hawaii.  Key focus areas of this assessment include:

a)     Amount of arable land to be diverted or reclaimed,

b)     Potential long-term environmental impacts,

c)      Amount of water and fertilizer required,

d)     Storage of processed sugarcane, and

e)     Challenges of bulk ethanol transport from Hawaii to the continental United States.

As sugarcane production increases in Florida, environmental impact on the Everglades caused by land reclamation, diversion of rivers and streams, and fertilizer runoff may be significant. 

-  The President and Congress endorse legislation that significantly increases

   capacity of the domestic Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to 1.5 billion  

   barrels of crude oil, and resumes pumping 70,000 barrels per day of light crude

   oil from offshore platforms in the Gulf of Mexico into the four existing SPR sites

The federal government simultaneously authorizes an increase in the capacity of the domestic SPR to 1.5 billion barrels and mandates replenishment of 70,000 barrels per day of crude oil from the Gulf of Mexico into the SPR.  Site selections for an expanded SPR, in the Midwest and southern United States, begin immediately after an increase in the capacity of the domestic reserve is authorized.   

-  The President calls for the Group of Eight (G8) industrialized nations to   

   convene a global food production summit to focus on key topics of the High- 

   Level Conference on World Food Security held in Rome in June 2008,

   including: 1) a critical evaluation of protective export bans and tariffs among

   key food producers, and 2) regional impact of consumable grains used in

   biofuel production

The United States assumes a leadership role in calling for an international food production and distribution conference to focus on eliminating unnecessary or restrictive export bans and tariffs, and assessing the impact of continued diversion of consumable crops to produce biofuel.  Findings and recommendations are shared with the Group of Twenty (G20) industrialized and emerging nations and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member nations.   

-  The President calls for Organization for Economic Cooperation and

   Development (OECD) member nations to directly petition OPEC member  

   nations to increase direct food aid contributions and indirect monetary and

   humanitarian investment in the Amazon basin and other areas endangered by

   indiscriminate deforestation

As part of a formal summit meeting, the President strongly urges OECD leadership to petition OPEC for significant monetary and humanitarian support as a fitting reminder of the role of prosperous nations to preserve and maintain endangered areas around the world for the benefit of future generations.  Although OPEC has repeatedly expressed a commitment to preserving global rainforests and cooperating with its customers as concerned “stewards of the planet”, only Saudi Arabia has supported that commitment through significant monetary contributions to the United Nations. 

While industrialized and large emerging nations, many of whom are OPEC’s customers in the G20, have contributed considerable time and resources to preserving and protecting endangered rainforests, wetlands and grasslands in underdeveloped nations around the world, OPEC member nations have consistently redirected their immense wealth for development of their own national infrastructures.  In effect, the intention of OPEC member nations is to exploit their vast monetary and human resources to build and enhance their own futures, while expecting other nations to build, preserve and maintain the rest of the world and our global environment on their behalf.  

-  Congress approves long-term funding for electrical transmission system

   upgrades and new infrastructure installation to support national integration of   

   renewable and non-renewable fuel power plants

Congressional approval for funding to build, modify and replace our aging national electrical power transmission system is urgently needed.  As the United States transitions from a petroleum-based economy, reliance on electrical power generation and distribution will increase.  Based on the number and type of renewable and non-renewable energy power plants to be connected into the national power grid, enhanced availability and greater reliability of the underlying transmission and switching system are essential.   

-  The President and Congress actively pursue multi-year natural gas contracts

    with Canada to ensure availability of supply and price consistency

Other countries, notably China and Japan, are actively pursuing long-term contracts for Canadian natural gas.  Continued reliance on short-term contracts with the Canadian government will prove problematic for the United States in only a few years, as competing nations secure preferential prices and uninterrupted availability of natural gas through use of longer term agreements.  Based on continued use of short-term agreements, fuel prices in the United States will rise faster than in countries with longer term commitments to purchase Canadian natural gas.   

Putting It All Together

During the Presidential campaign of 2008, John McCain and Barack Obama proposed different energy plans.  While McCain supported increased offshore oil drilling and nuclear power, Obama emphasized aggressive development of renewable energy.  While their ideas certainly have merit, neither individual offered critical details on how their proposals would be implemented.  For example, greatly expanding our domestic nuclear power fleet by 2030 is a clear and easily understood objective.  However, a simple plan such as this does not explain how the United States will ensure access to or availability of energy in the decades preceding 2030, or what other options should be considered if increased nuclear power generation is unattainable or becomes too expensive in twenty years.  Likewise, an objective based on the increased use of alternative energy lacks specifics on how renewable resources will be integrated into our national power generation portfolio over the next ten to twenty years, or obstacles and challenges the United States should anticipate throughout this transition.  

Power generated by nuclear energy is based on mined uranium ore, a sustainable but not renewable resource.  Accelerating demand for limited quantities of suitable nuclear fuel will quickly drive global prices higher.  In less than ten years, uranium prices could easily double, and then double again by 2025.  Uranium fuel could become prohibitively expensive before even a fraction of the nuclear power plants proposed or under construction in the United States come online by 2030. 

With approximately 440 commercial nuclear power plants in operation worldwide, and 90 more either under contract or firmly ordered, competition for fuel-grade uranium will certainly increase.  Especially significant for the United States is use of nuclear fuel by the Navy for submarines and surface vessels.  Lack of sufficient uranium fuel supplies then becomes a national security issue as well as an energy policy dilemma for our government.

Global competitors, such as France, Russia, and China, could secure multi-year contracts with Australian and Canadian mining companies that would manipulate global prices for uranium ore mined over the next twenty years.  Although large deposits of uranium suitable for use in nuclear power plants exist in the United States, our domestic supply is not unlimited.  A period of twenty years is sufficient for the economic advantage of large-scale expansion of nuclear power generation to be negated by excessive prices for uranium fuel.  While consumers may readily accept the fact that nuclear power is necessary in a post-petroleum world, these same individuals may have considerable difficulty in paying the price.                           

Selection Criteria

A comprehensive analysis of domestic electrical power generation required by 2020 is based on a forecast of electrical power requirements in 2040.  This approach manages planning, implementation, operation and maintenance costs by reducing modifications to existing infrastructure typically performed as system capacity requirements double every ten to fifteen years.  However, from a business case perspective, firm planning and implementation costs are difficult to justify due to the large number of operational assumptions and variables to consider over a thirty year period.  Nevertheless, it is reasonable to assume that electrical power requirements will increase substantially in the years ahead. 

Planning and implementation initiatives integrating renewable and non-renewable energy power plants consider proximity of existing transmission infrastructure a key criterion, however, planned modifications of existing switching facilities and transmission lines or installation of additional transmission capacity are significant site selection criteria as well.  Capacity planning becomes an important selection criterion when the possibility of transmission system congestion increases as renewable or non-renewable energy power plants are added to over-utilized transmission lines.  Regional power demand forecasting plays an important role in power plant site selection when alternative energy plants are built to supply either baseload or peak load electrical power.  As modernized power transmission infrastructure becomes widely available, however, such criteria become less relevant.  Electricity generated in one region may be rapidly switched to other regions as needed. 

Long Poles

At no time since the Great Depression of the 1930s has the world faced a global economic downturn as prolonged and devastating as the recession of 2008 and 2009.  There is little doubt, therefore, that Congressional passage of the massive fiscal stimulus package outlined initially by President Obama in January 2009 will contribute to national economic recovery.  With a combination of tax cuts, direct monetary support for business, and a national public-works program worth nearly a trillion dollars, the amount of liquidity flowing into our economy is unparalleled.  To hasten the pace of economic recovery, however, President Obama and his team of economic advisers will be faced with the dilemma of spending enormous amounts of money quickly but wisely.  While there are literally thousands of infrastructure projects worthy of receiving federal funds, from repairing roads and bridges to rebuilding schools and sewage treatment plants, many other projects under consideration should receive no funding at all.  Every state has drafted a long list of “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects, leaving President Obama in the unenviable position of deciding how to rapidly stimulate the economy without recklessly spending money the “old Washington way”.

The President clearly intends to aggressively develop green technologies; however, about $150 billion will be allocated for renewable and alternative energy projects over the next ten years.  His team of energy policy advisors has been tasked with planning a national renewable energy portfolio standard that may require utility companies in the United States to generate no less than ten percent of their electricity from renewable sources by 2012, and at least 25 percent from renewable energy by 2025.

While abundant solar and wind energy are available in many areas of the United States, increased reliance on renewable resources to generate electricity is often limited by a lack of new or modernized transmission infrastructure.  With assistance from the Federal Smart Grid Task Force, established under Title XIII of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, the amount of time typically needed to plan and approve new construction or modernization initiatives may be significantly reduced.  Expediting the approval process for transmission and distribution systems nationwide will become a priority as dependency on electricity increases. 

Physically and functionally similar to a modern digital communications network, the evolving “smart grid” conceived by the Department of Energy (DoE) is designed to increase overall efficiency, reliability, and security of the national system of electrical power transmission and distribution.  Transmission systems connect electrical power plants with distribution substations, while distribution systems connect with industrial and residential consumers.  The smart grid is designed to interconnect with local area electrical networks of non-renewable and renewable energy resources to increase electrical power availability while supporting adaptive system loading.

While transmission infrastructure planning and construction have been engineering afterthoughts in the past, technically advanced switching and routing systems are required today to efficiently load-balance baseload and peak electricity generated by renewable and non-renewable energy power plants connecting to the national power grid.  Conventional power generated by non-renewable fuels is more easily regulated; however, variations in wind speed and presence of overcast skies affect power produced by wind turbines and solar installations on a minute by minute basis.  Load balancing becomes even more critical as renewable energy sources are relied on to augment baseload power supplied to the national grid. 

The present national power grid is partitioned into East, West and Texas segments, connected by a backbone of transmission corridors extending across the country.  Overlay infrastructure modeling techniques could be used to determine the distance from proposed geothermal, wind and solar energy power plants to existing transmission lines.  Based on use of modeling, therefore, construction schedules for renewable energy plants are determined on a region by region basis.  Other criteria useful for scheduling modification or construction of power plants include:

-  Planned transmission corridor installations, upgrades or overhauls

-  Presence of power line congestion or potential for congestion caused by

   installation of new power plants

-  Baseload and peak power demand forecasts by region, and

-  Planned long-term maintenance or shutdown of coal-fired, natural gas,

   hydroelectric or nuclear power plants presently on line. 

The southwestern United States has emerged as the nation’s solar energy epicenter, while abundant wind energy from Texas to North Dakota and along both coasts is already generating substantial amounts of electricity.  Advanced computer modeling techniques would be invaluable in determining optimum locations for collocated solar, wind and geothermal energy power plants and for scheduling construction of critical transmission and distribution infrastructure.    

Electrical power forecasting for the next decade begins by considering the amount of power generated in all fifty states during the previous year as a basis of estimate.  Plan for at least a 50 percent increase in power required between 2010 and 2030, to accommodate a progressive shift from a petroleum-based economy.  For example, power requirements to recharge hundreds of thousands of battery-powered vehicles, day and night, will be considerable.  Also, a minimum three percent loss of baseload power generation is anticipated as petroleum-based power plants are shut down. 

Power generation demands in the next decade include significant increases in both baseload and peak power needed across the country, especially between 7:00 AM and 11:00 PM.  As alternative energy sources augment or replace traditional baseload fuel sources, such as coal, natural gas, uranium, and hydroelectricity, load balancing among transmission corridors becomes more critical.  Sophisticated transmission switching equipment is needed to withstand rapid and wide variations in power produced by solar and wind power plants during daylight and evening hours.

Requirements for peak and baseload power may be assessed by use of overlapping demand time blocks.  For example, periods of peak loading would be determined between the hours of:

-  7:00 AM and 11:00 AM

-  11:00 AM to 5:00 PM, and

-  5:00 PM to 11 PM.

Periods of baseload loading would be determined between the hours of:

-  7:00 AM and 11 AM

-  11:00 AM to 11:00 PM, and

-  11:00 PM to 7:00 AM.

Over time, large-scale wind farms and concentrating solar power installations generating 500 MW or more would replace older nuclear, coal and hydroelectric facilities.

As new alternative energy power plants are brought online and new or upgraded transmission infrastructure is in place, load balancing across the country actually becomes easier due to the number and types of power generation sources available nationwide.  Long-range power demand and supply is efficiently managed as older coal-fired plants are retired and hydroelectric sources such as the Hoover Dam produce less electricity due to declining water levels of feeder lakes and reservoirs. 

The most efficient industrial- and utility-grade solar power plants in service today rely on concentrating solar power (CSP) technology.  Large-scale CSP power plant types in use include solar tower, dish Stirling, parabolic trough, parabolic dish, and Fresnel systems.  The parabolic trough design, known in the industry as a solar electric generating system (SEGS), relies on arrays of mirrors to concentrate the sun’s energy.  While this design is the most mature of all CSP types, Fresnel systems are becoming increasingly popular due to use of less expensive flat mirrors.  Common to all CSP installations is dependence on concentrated solar rays to heat fluids and/or molten salt compounds, which generate steam needed to spin large turbines.  Advanced CSP installations are approaching grid parity with traditional power plants, in terms of installation and maintenance costs and amount of electricity generated, but are still several years away from achieving it.        

Of the various types of CSP technology in use worldwide, parabolic solar trough installations provide the most reliable utility-grade power throughout the day and for several hours after sunset.  Their operation is based on concentrating energy from the sun to heat fluid that turns large turbines, which is the same principle used by nuclear power plants to generate electricity.  Use of natural gas, as a pre-heater for the fluid in the early morning and as a post-heater after sunset, extends the effective operational period that power is produced by a concentrating solar installation each day. 

Hybrid natural gas and solar plants are an interim solution as are newer parabolic solar trough designs that operate efficiently at lower temperatures.  For example, one innovative design first captures the sun’s rays to heat mineral oil to between 250 degrees and 500 degrees Fahrenheit, and then passes the heated oil through a heat exchanger to vaporize pentane, a hydrocarbon, which spins the turbines.  Research in advanced heat storage continues as well.  Typical molten salt storage in use today extends solar plant operations approximately six hours after sunset.  Technologies that increase the efficiency of wind and solar energy to generate reliable and consistent electrical power throughout the day and night are in high demand.

Wind and solar energy, and to a lesser extent geothermal, are renewable natural resources that will be used increasingly to generate baseload power in the United States.  Already depended on today to supply peak power, renewable energy sources will provide on-demand power in the future as integral elements of an energy diversity strategy.  Increased use of renewable resources is an effective, but not always inexpensive, means of reducing dependence on coal-fired and nuclear power plants.  A diverse energy portfolio of coal, nuclear, geothermal, biomass, wind and solar sources effectively ensures high-availability electrical power, as the United States and nations around the world transition from oil-based transportation and manufacturing infrastructures.  Such transitions, however, place an even greater burden on aging electrical generation, transmission and distribution systems.   

Long-haul DC transmission infrastructure is not common in the United States; however, DC systems carry electricity over long distances more efficiently than traditional AC transmission systems.  With greater transmission efficiency as an objective, a new long-distance DC-based transmission backbone, the Southwest Sunbelt corridor, is proposed by the author to support the high concentration of alternative power generated in the southwestern United States.  Corridor ingress is in southern California, with connectivity extending through southern Nevada, southern Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and into north central Texas.

This newly constructed corridor not only connects the major Texas and Western segments of the national power grid, but seamlessly connects substantial amounts of electrical power generated by solar energy in the southwest with electrical power generated from wind in northwestern and north central Texas.  Return on investment in the Southwest Sunbelt corridor would be realized in less than ten years, based on the enormous amount of electrical power generated and size of the effective service area.  Potential congestion or overload conditions on existing AC transmission interconnections are minimized due to the large number of interconnection points available between southern California and north central Texas.  This combination of wind and solar power generation with a dedicated transmission backbone supports highly agile load balancing, necessary to ensure predictable baseload electrical power as sunlight moves from east to west and wind intensity changes throughout the day and evening.

Beyond the Next Ten Years

In the nineteenth century, cheap and abundant coal powered the industrial revolution, spawning growth and prosperity of many nations.  Over the last one hundred years, however, cheap and abundant crude oil powered the growth and prosperity of all nations.  Continued growth and prosperity in the future will be challenged by more expensive and less abundant natural resources.  Our collective choice is to deny imminent change, or accept it as an opportunity to fully exploit tools and technologies at our disposal to manage it.  While the challenges of sustaining growth and prosperity are globally significant, status and success of an individual nation will be measured by more than political will or military prowess in the years to come.

The world faces an imminent crisis caused in part by misleading statements from OPEC about proven and probable oil reserves.  As long as the world believes that oil production from Saudi Arabia will exceed expected demand for the next ten years or more, an urgently needed transition to alternative energy solutions is further delayed.  Until production noticeably declines, the world cannot dispute the size of Saudi Arabia’s stated reserves because their government does not share annual production figures with its customers or other nations.  Oil consuming nations will continue to estimate global reserves when actual production data is unavailable or unreliable, however, as a best-guess attempt to assess whether or not peak oil production is imminent or has already occurred.

The United States is still a nation rich in natural resources, such as coal, uranium, wood, fresh water, and even crude oil.  Our nation also has abundant fertile land to grow much of the world’s food, as well as mountains and deserts to support renewable electrical power generation from wind and sun.  The transition from a petroleum-based economy requires significant generating capacity day and night.  Effectively using a diverse mix of clean-coal, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and wind energy requires a long-term commitment from our government to a comprehensive national policy supporting conventional and alternative energy solutions.  Such a critical commitment from the federal government is still lacking today, threatening the economic growth and prosperity of the United States beyond the next decade.

Congress continues to block needed legislation that simultaneously:

-  Reduces greenhouse gas emissions

-  Reduces our dependence on foreign oil

-  Develops large-scale alternative energy projects, and

-  Creates thousands of new highly skilled green-collar jobs.

Without a long-term commitment to such legislation, the United States will continue to rely on foreign oil as our primary energy source.  Asia, Europe and even the Middle East, however, will lead the world in transitioning from a dependency on petroleum and developing more efficient clean-coal, nuclear, and alternative energy power generation.  Continued indifference by the federal government threatens economic and political stability in only a few short years, and promotes a perception that the United States will always be in control of its own destiny. 

Little Cold Wars

Russia’s aggressive attack on neighboring Georgia in August 2008 is an initial operation in a long-term campaign to reassert itself in Europe and around the world as a nation to be feared and respected.  And immediate recognition of the two rebellious enclaves as sovereign republics by Russia further complicates Georgia’s entry into the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).  Through its latest actions, Russia establishes a military buffer with Turkey, and threatens seizure of natural gas and oil pipelines supplying natural resources to Western European nations. 

Based on renewed aggression against its neighbors, an attack against Ukraine is a real possibility.  Should Russia successfully annex parts or all of Ukraine, a reconstituted Black Sea Fleet could periodically conduct naval exercises in the Mediterranean Sea to harass American naval forces.  The next logical step would be an economic and political alliance with Iran.  With a larger Russian naval force in proximity, Iranian threats to block vital oil shipments leaving the Strait of Hormuz would be taken seriously by the West.  In our own hemisphere, Russia has conducted joint naval exercises in the Caribbean with Venezuela, a key oil exporter to the United States.  In response to a potential threat in our own hemisphere, the United States Navy reactivated the Fourth Fleet in April 2008 to maintain a presence in the region.  

Quantity over Quality

The United States remains the world’s only superpower, although Russia and China are increasingly asserting themselves as military rivals.  After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, the world witnessed rapid social, political and economic emergence of newly independent countries throughout Eastern Europe and Asia, and a growing divergence of opinion among once unified Western nations on how to respond to regional conflicts.  China’s decision to greatly expand its naval forces, either to protect natural resource supply lines extending from Vietnam to Australia or to threaten Taiwan sovereignty in the future, has already destabilized the region.  As the transition from a petroleum-based global economy gains momentum, tensions among allies and adversaries will force the United States to reassess how it responds to regional conflicts overseas and closer to home. 

Russia’s accelerating diversion of natural resources, most notably oil and natural gas, to rebuild internal infrastructure and support a military buildup is by far a more ominous statement of future intentions.  Their actions suggest that, as a nation rich in natural resources, Russia has adopted a longer term, multi-faceted political and economic strategy designed to fully exploit that advantage.

A marked difference in military strategy between the United States and Russia has not changed since the early days of the Cold War, however.  The United States has consistently emphasized the significance of advanced technology as a cornerstone of military superiority, while Russia continues to focus on the concept of overwhelming military force, typically in terms of numbers of ground personnel or amount of equipment deployed in the field, as the means of ensuring victory over adversaries. 

The idea of winning a military engagement by overwhelming numbers and not by superior technology remains a key consideration in the design and construction of Russia’s latest military equipment for internal use or for sale to allies and other nations potentially hostile to the United States.  A newly designed diesel-electric attack submarine, powered by advanced lithium-ion batteries, is an example of Russian military equipment available today.  With only minor modification, advanced battery technology useful in military applications is adaptable to next-generation electric automobiles and light trucks as well.  Considering their innovative use of technology, the Russians should have been awarded the $300 million prize for developing a better battery offered by Senator John McCain during the Presidential campaign of 2008.       

Electric Boats

Throughout the Cold War and during the 1990s, the United States could rely heavily on its technologically superior fleet of military aircraft and nuclear-powered submarines to rapidly and decisively defend the homeland, our allies, and strategic interests scattered around the world.  Particularly advantageous to the Navy was ease and accuracy in tracking the movements of diesel-powered and nuclear submarines by use of passive sonar, capable of providing location, speed and direction on a minute-by-minute basis.  Once vessels were detected either in the deep blue water of the open sea or in crowded shipping lanes closer to our shores, their size and type were confirmed by easily recognizable noise signatures.

This significant advantage eroded after 2001, however, with arrival of the next generation of ultra-quiet battery-powered submarines designed to loiter in open waters, in crowded shipping lanes, near our shores, or in proximity to our costly and technologically superior naval forces.  Finding and tracking these submarines has become a significant challenge for the Navy; therefore, their deployment gives potential adversaries an asymmetric advantage over our all-nuclear submarine fleet at a time when reliance on technological superiority has never been greater.  To put this into perspective, the United States has spent billions of dollars in developing stealth technology for use on advanced aircraft.  As an offensive counterbalance, potential adversaries are spending considerably less to leverage equally potent stealth technology beneath the world’s oceans.  Although relatively low-tech in design and functionality, this new type of threat represents a complex challenge to our national security.

America’s nuclear fleet of attack and ballistic submarines is expensive to build and maintain.  Russia offers upgraded Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines for $200 million to its allies and France sells their comparable Scorpene class submarines for about $300 million to friendly and potentially hostile nations.  China, Singapore, and Indonesia have closed deals in Asia, while several African and South America countries have also purchased these vessels from Russia and France.  At least 26 Russian diesel-electric submarines are operational today, supporting navies from Algeria to Venezuela.

China’s undersea fleet of 55 nuclear and diesel-powered submarines includes 12 Kilo class vessels.  China is further extending an ominous naval presence in the Indian and Pacific Oceans with deployment of new Jin-class ballistic nuclear submarines from Hainan Island.  Based on a technically deficient Xia-class prototype, the redesigned submarine gives the Chinese navy a seaborne deterrent capability for the first time, and places Hawaii and Alaska in range of nuclear missiles launched from Chinese territorial waters.  China’s intention to build its first aircraft carrier to further project its naval presence beyond Asian waters will prove equally problematic for the United States.  

In addition to carrying torpedoes, newer attack submarines are equipped with potent anti-ship cruise missiles.  With further advancements in other critical technologies, such as air-independent propulsion, rapid charge fuel cells, acoustic tiles, and cavitation-reducing propellers, modern low-cost and comparatively low-tech submarines possess a lethal combination of stealth and extended operational range underwater.  Even greater operational endurance has been achieved by a newer Russian submarine.  Similar in design to Kilo class vessels, relying on integrated diesel and battery power, the newer prototype uses a small nuclear reactor known as a teakettle to recharge its batteries.

America’s stealth bomber and fighter aircraft require frequent refueling during extended missions.  However, large numbers of relatively low-tech yet highly lethal submarines roam the world’s oceans on extended missions virtually undetected.  Without long-term planning that considers energy diversity and energy independence essential elements of national security, the United States will be forced to deploy costly military assets at home and abroad each time the flow of natural resources is threatened by one or more adversaries on land, in the air, or beneath the sea.     

Tip of the Spear

Resource nationalism and isolationist or protectionist policies trigger increased tension among nations over access to and availability of natural resources.  Over time, political skirmishes become catalysts for armed conflict between allies and adversaries.  Based on the changing nature and duration of these conflicts, diplomatic and military responses relied on during the Cold War may be ineffective.  For example, while the United States responds to Iranian provocation in the Strait of Hormuz by committing two aircraft carrier battle groups to protect oil supertankers, Chinese warships block Japan’s access to their offshore natural gas drilling rigs in the East China Sea, and Russia conducts naval exercises with Venezuela near oil drilling platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Although senior Pentagon strategists often concede that our military is adept at preparing for the last war, the National Defense Strategy released in August 2008 poignantly warns that allies and coalition partners will be called upon to actively assist the United States in responding to little cold wars in the future.  A position statement such as this may prove problematic for both the United States and our allies in only a few years, however.    

Whether or not simultaneous political skirmishes are conceived by a belligerent Kremlin, orchestrated by a beleaguered politburo in Beijing, or occur as an unfortunate sequence of events, the United States can no longer be expected to respond unilaterally to multiple regional conflicts.  Likewise, the United States should not expect meaningful military assistance from allies in Europe and Asia in response to our conflicts.  In the future, allies and coalition partners will frequently be engaged in resolving regional skirmishes of their own.  While our military forces should be committed to defending our vital energy interests around the world, a traditional response of deploying costly and increasingly vulnerable assets such as aircraft carrier strike groups in Middle Eastern or Asian hotspots, where reliance on superior technology alone no longer guarantees success against opponents, should be reevaluated in the context of threat scenarios the United States is certain to face in the future.   

As the nature of conflicts is changing, so are tools and tactics needed to respond effectively in a world where both allies and adversaries will be competing for dwindling natural resources.  In the not too distant future, conflicts among nations will not be triggered merely by attempts to overrun and control large expanses of foreign territory, but to either gain access to natural resources or deny access to other nations.

Without a well-defined plan of achieving energy security in a world of dwindling resources, the United States should expect to be constantly embroiled in little cold wars to secure and protect vital energy sources for ourselves and our allies.  While maintaining a strong national defense should and will remain a priority for the United States, establishing and implementing a long-term energy policy that ensures access to and availability of a diverse mix of energy supplies closer to home is clearly essential to national security. 

Effects of globalization will be felt well into the future, and include the impact of intense competition among industrialized and developing nations for dwindling supplies of food, fuel, and fresh water.  Based on an emerging global reality, therefore, the world should no longer expect the United States to continue a solitary role of international policeman and defender of all nations, large and small.

Military force should only be considered as a final option in response to clear and present threats against national security, but in time will prove ineffective in coercing nations rich in natural resources to increase production and exports.  Based on evidence of a growing imbalance between global supply and demand, it is apparent that nations endowed with raw materials and basic commodities, essential to growth and prosperity of all nations, are already producing as much as they can.    

American Success Story

Since the beginning of the last century, the United States has steadfastly believed in the strength and power of democracy.  Time and time again, our leaders in government extolled the virtues of hard work, sacrifice, and striving for the American Dream.  The dream was based on faith in capitalism as the means of prosperity and a better life.  We strived to export the spirit of America around the world, and we succeeded.

In the past twenty years, an explosion of new economic miracles has literally given billions of people around the world a chance to benefit from capitalism.  Adding to this, effects of globalization have inspired people in once closed societies to dream of a better life for themselves and their children.  Resulting growth and prosperity have caused the demand for all types of basic commodities to surge worldwide. 

While the American success story of the last century is based largely on intangible notions of personal freedom and eternal optimism, it is also based on access and availability of a virtually unlimited supply of raw materials needed to build an economic and political superpower.  As other nations adopt Western ideas and culture, they too are in pursuit of the raw materials needed to build and shape their own futures.

The so-called BRICS nations of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa are prominent examples of economic success stories today.  In particular, China clearly represents the extent of economic and political success possible in only a few years through embracing capitalism.  However, the price of this transformation has been enormous in the form of greatly increased air and water pollution, and destruction of the agricultural industry to support sprawling new cities.  Although sustained economic growth depends on building and maintaining national infrastructure, precious farmland needed to feed a more affluent population has either been covered in concrete or is now too polluted to raise crops or livestock. 

Rampant and accelerating consumption of raw materials used to build emerging nations such as India and China is a major contributor to global supply and demand imbalances evident today for crude oil, iron ore, concrete, industrial metals, metallurgical coal, wheat, rice and soybeans.  Fresh water is in short supply as well.  While availability of clean water is important to urban populations, it is essential to grow crops and raise livestock.  As a population becomes more affluent and its diet changes, increasing amounts of water are also needed to grow crops used as food for poultry and livestock.

As the industrialized world knows, and emerging nations are learning, uninterrupted growth and prosperity depends on access to raw materials.  Fervent nationalism and resource protectionism become short-term perspectives of all nations, including the United States, as the urgency to discover and exploit our remaining global endowment of natural resources increases.  However, such self-serving reactions only strain political and economic relationships among nations and do very little to resolve a global dilemma shared by all nations.

As non-renewable natural resources become scarce, sustained prosperity of some nations is only achievable through deliberately depriving other nations of theirs.  While this is not a tectonic shift, it is nevertheless a significant tipping point.  As perception becomes reality, animosity among allies and open hostility between “have” and “have-not” nations will trigger debilitating resource skirmishes around the world, which no nation can expect to win. 

We are indeed at an apex, a time when many believe the world we live in today is the best it will ever be.  As Americans, we expect that we will always live in a great and powerful nation, with limitless opportunity and potential to succeed.  However, we also accept as Americans that other nations have the right to pursue every opportunity available to achieve greatness.  What remains to be seen is whether any aspiring nation will influence the world in the future the way the United States has for well over a century.

Contrary to a number of books written on the subject, the United States is not in decline, nor will it be in decline in the next ten, twenty, or fifty years.  Two reasons that America will continue to be a global success story in the years to come are that our nation has consistently demonstrated a willingness to overcome big challenges, and we have the needed natural and human resources to decisively achieve long-term goals.  Such advantages will prove critical as wealth of nations in the future is more accurately measured by availability of natural resources and degree of self-sufficiency.

The United States has an abundance of raw materials, including coal and uranium, and availability of fresh water and arable farmland.  In addition to remaining a great economic and political power in the decades to come, America continues to be the world’s breadbasket.  This distinction will become even more poignant in the years to come.  Eating bread is always preferable to eating crude oil or coal.

“The Post-American World”, written by Fareed Zakaria, assesses the arrival of a new global economic age.  This new age is not based on the demise of America, but rather, on ascension of the rest of the world by embracing capitalism and Western culture.  While the new age may be a time of unparalleled opportunity, it is also a time of increasing tension between industrialized and emerging nations over access to diminishing natural resources, from wheat and rice to heating oil and fresh water.  Access to cheap and plentiful resources helped build and shape economies of North America and Europe in the last century, but may prove to be the Achilles’ heel of economic globalization going forward.    

Zakaria also warns Americans that clear and present dangers are not always the ones we are immediately aware of, unless they occur closer to home.  Asked about the future of the United States during an interview in 2008, he observes: “If we run out of wheat, if we run out of potable water, if we run out of oil…we’ll have to adjust.  The danger for the United States is that those shocks will probably take place outside the United States first.”  While this may be true, the world still looks to the United States for guidance and leadership in solving big problems beyond our own borders.

Willingness and determination by the United States to assume a leadership role in solving an imminent global crisis by first assessing and accepting the impact of dwindling natural resources, then analyzing viable options and alternatives available, and ultimately executing comprehensive plans of action as part of an integrated energy strategy that includes all nations is urgently needed. 

The stakes have never been higher.