The indications are that the RSS is pleased with Nitin Gadkari and plans to let him continue as party president when his term expires at the year-end. This will mean a change in the party constitution. The other key question is whether Joshi, despite his failure in UP, will be made party organising secretary. That would be one more rebuff to Modi.

Pankaj Pachauri, the PM’s communication adviser, has moved into the office of Harish Khare, the former media adviser to Manmohan Singh. This indicates that there is going to be no replacement for Khare, even if Pachauri’s designation is differently worded.

The PM’s three successive media advisers, Sanjaya Baru, Khare and Pachauri, all placed their desks in

different positions from their predecessor. It is not clear whether Vaastu was behind the rearrangement of furniture. Incidentally, there have already been some hiccups in Pachauri’s new communication strategy for the PMO. When the PM invited suggestions on twitter for the 12th plan, the PMO received a deluge of mail most of which was irrelevant and included a large number of hate messages.

Not everyone in the Congress is unhappy with the poor showing in UP. Indeed, the coterie around Sonia Gandhi is secretly pleased. After the UP debacle, it is unlikely that Rahul Gandhi and his young Turks would take over the reigns of the government and party just yet, so there is no immediate threat to the old guard. When the media met some of the older generation on counting day, they seemed relaxed and unperturbed and used the opportunity to criticise Digvijay Singh for misguiding the heir apparent.

The BJP campaign in Uttar Pradesh was uncharacteristically low profile since the party was not in a position to project any single individual as its chief ministerial candidate. It was the media desperately looking for a face for the BJP campaign, which plumped for Uma Bharti. Incidentally, despite the prominence given to Bharti and tainted former BSP minister Babu Singh Kushwaha, the BJP managed to win only three out of 19 seats in Bundelkhand. (The silver lining was that the party’s vote share in the region increased substantially from 2007.) The BJP did not even project any particular leader at the national level. It was reduced to putting up posters of Atal Behari Vajpayee, when it is widely known that the aged patriarch is bedridden and in no position to play any role in the campaign.

The early bird gets the worm and unlike the Congress and the BJP, the SP and the BSP selected their candidates for the assembly elections over a year in advance. The SP had the advantage over the BSP since the imperious Mayawati frequently changed prospective candidates. Some of the BSP’s rejected candidates joined the SP and were victorious. At least two former BSP candidates from Bulandshahr and one from Gorakhpur won on the SP ticket. Kurmi leader Beni Prasad Verma, who was formerly with the SP, was given a major say in the allotment of tickets for the Congress much to the annoyance of old timers in the party. Verma inducted a large number of SP rebels but none of his candidates was victorious, including his own son.

Despite the fact that the UPA can arrange the “numbers” required to maintain its majority in Parliament, there is deep political uncertainty at the Centre. The UPA, and the Congress in particular, is under severe pressure after the debacle in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab Assembly polls, and the revolt in Uttarakhand by Harish Rawat and his 14 MLAs has not helped matters.

The Congress has options — it can go with the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal or even the Left. But there are no free lunches in politics and each association comes with a political cost. The case of the BSP and the RJD is very different; their assistance has a high risk factor and may get the Congress in trouble. The Uttar Pradesh elections and the SP’s victory have enabled Mulayam Singh Yadav to target 40 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014. He has to keep this in mind as he plans his party’s moves in the current crisis facing the UPA.

All things considered, the Congress and the Trinamul could well be jumping from the frying pan into the fire if they declare war on each other and run out of options. Barring these Assembly election results, the Congress has done rather well in the past decade. Since 1999, it has virtually doubled its tally in the Lok Sabha, from 110 to 206 seats, and the credit for this goes to Congress president Sonia Gandhi who has held the party together.

But things started going wrong after the 2009 Lok Sabha polls. The very fact that Anna Hazare and Baba Ramdev were able to shake the UPA to its roots was a shock, especially as it laid bare the utter chaos in the government’s decision-making process.

The Congress has managed to stay in power at the Centre despite threats from outside and within, but its survival has come at a very high price. Although no one from the Congress was found to be directly involved in the 2G spectrum scam, the party suffered electorally as the AIADMK defeated both the DMK and the Congress in Tamil Nadu last year.

Having lost one UPA ally, Prime Minister Manhohan Singh and the Congress are loath to seeing a repeat of the complications and uncertainties with another party. But all politicians must remember that the voting public watches each and every move of the government and its leaders, and lapses don’t go unnoticed, or unpunished.

The DMK’s demands were very different from the Trinamul Congress’. The DMK and the multiple wings of the Karunanidhi family were into asset accumulation whereas the Trinamul wants to keep the Left out of power in West Bengal. Trinamul Congress’ concerns lie left of centre and are totally in conflict with the reform agenda necessary for the times we live in. Sadly, for West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Baner-jee, there is no middle path on these issues as her priority is the decimation of the Left in West Bengal.

Politicians on both sides would do well to avoid a confrontation, but the politics of West Bengal cannot continue in this manner. Ms Banerjee cannot be West Bengal’s Chief Minister and yet function as a leader of the Opposition without severe loss to her credibility as an administrator. Ms Baner-jee is a charismatic leader with very high standards of personal integrity. She lives for the aam aadmi and I have little doubt that she can still sweep the polls if she is made to fight another elections in West Bengal.

But high expectations are always followed by higher disappointments. It’s been nine months since the Trinamul was voted to rule West Bengal. The honeymoon period is over and Ms Banerjee now has to govern the state and fulfil her poll promises. People expect economic recovery, they expect her to resolve development issues and create employment in the state. Supreme leaders have a style of their own and common logic does not apply to them. Few, if any, will dare to advise them caution.

But they have to learn to deliver.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee has delivered a very complicated Budget. His 2012-13 Union Budget hides more than it reveals. In the current global economic crisis, the UPA needs maneuverability in tackling economic issues. But in all fairness to the Trinamul, the series of reform proposals pending in Parliament will also be opposed by the Left, SP and regional forces.

Over the next six months, as we head towards state Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, governance will not be easy. The situation within the Congress is best seen through the drama in Uttarakhand where Vijay Bahuguna had been sworn in as the chief minister, but the majority of Congressmen were with Harish Rawat and were threatening to take oath, defying the party high command.

Political strategies at this time demand caution and restraint. Confrontation is not an option for the UPA and its allies. Things can be very different a year from now, as few politicians and their parties can duck the anti-incumbency trend. The race to 2014 general elections is still open, as no one at the moment looks like a clear winner.

Further, she observed that the electoral reverses would have no adverse impact on the United Progressive Alliance government. Asked about the possibility of early general elections, the Congress president declared: “We’re in 2012, and Manmohan Singh will continue to be the Prime Minister till 2014.”

Talking of “weak” candidates, the Congress president and the office-bearers authorised by her alone should be held responsible for their selection. Under the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968, the party president and such office-bearers authorised by the president alone can issue Form B to notify a Returning Officer about a party’s candidate and the allotment of its election symbol to him or her. Without the forms duly signed on behalf of the party, nobody can enter a contest.

In the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, the Congress had an alliance with the Rashtriya Janata Dal. There were 355 Congress candidates in the field, of whom only 25 won.

In the 2002 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, there were 402 Congress candidates to win 25 seats. In 334 places they lost their security deposit. In the 2007 elections, the Congress contested in 393 seats, to succeed in 22; it lost the deposit in 323 places.

All these three rounds of election took place in this largest State of India, in terms of population, under the same party president — Sonia Gandhi.

However, in the latest round of Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, all the Congress candidates fielded in the five Assembly segments in the Rae Bareli parliamentary constituency were defeated. Though Sonia Gandhi had topped in terms of the number of votes polled in all these Assembly segments in the 2004 and 2009 general elections, it was a washout for the Congress candidates there. Within Rahul Gandhi’s Amethi parliamentary constituency, only two candidates reached the winning post.

The election symbol of the Congress is the hand, with five fingers spread out. In Uttar Pradesh, each parliamentary constituency has five segments. In Rae Bareli, all the five fingers of the hand were cut off, and in Amethi three were lost.

The Congress president has since asserted that the election outcomes in Uttar Pradesh and the other States would have no impact on the UPA government, but she has failed to assess the reverse impact of the misrule of UPA-II on the long-suffering people of disadvantaged sections throughout India, with scam after scam involving the loss of mind-boggling sums of money, widespread corruption percolating from the ruling authority in Delhi, astounding audit revelations, forthright judicial expositions, fall in rupee value, spiralling prices of food articles and commodities of common consumption, and rising unemployment levels. The incompetence of the Union government is manifest. A tongue-tied Prime Minister appears to be helpless in taking action against any wrongdoing Minister, under the peculiar cult of “coalition dharma.”

When the oppressed millions got the ballot under the scarce “democratic dharma,” they have hit hard at the Rajas, the Rahuls, and their minions parading as MPs and Ministers. It was the fury of the masses that crushed the ambitious targets fixed by Congress leaders.

The overall polling percentages in the five States have risen in 2012 compared to those recorded in 2007. Moreover, in every State concerned, the number of women voters coming to vote surpassed that of the men voters.

The aftermath of the decisive downfall of the Congress in the Assembly election round has severely affected the coherence of the alliance; some of the partners seem to be even trying to distance themselves from the government.

Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister is helpless and hopeless when it comes to tackling critical situations. Take, for instance, the removal of Dinesh Trivedi as Railway Minister. Let us not be concerned here with the merits or demerits of the budget proposals. The Cabinet had accepted his proposals and the Prime Minister also appreciated his work. The Prime Minister showed hesitation in the matter until the president of the alliance party in question vehemently insisted that the Minister should go.

It was after much deliberation that the Constituent Assembly decided to adopt the British model of Cabinet government. On the essence of the collective responsibility of the Cabinet, Dr. B.R. Ambedkar had asserted: “One principle is that no person shall be nominated to the Cabinet except on the advice of the Prime Minister. Secondly, no person shall be retained as a member of the Cabinet, if the Prime Minister says he shall be dismissed … As I said, collective responsibility can be achieved only through the instrumentality of the Prime Minister.”

The times have of course changed. The Prime Minister today has no authority as envisaged by Dr. Ambedkar. Whether it is Raja or Trivedi, he has to be instructed by the party president concerned. The Cabinet system of governance as devised and accepted by the Constitution is not being followed. We have a Cabinet without a competent Prime Minister, and a Prime Minister without an effective government.

The writing on the wall is clear. But Sonia Gandhi as Congress president and Manmohan Singh as Prime Minister are not able to decipher it. But some wise Daniel will come along to lead the people against this “Organised Hypocrisy” — as Disraeli called an incompetent government.

While it is the prerogative of any party to do what it wants to, but in this case where the Congress was ahead of the BJP by merely a single seat, there is every reason to know what prompted the Congress leadership to choose a member of Parliament instead of a MLA to head the government. And even if Bahuguna was to continue as the CM, the party in this hostile atmosphere will have to face two elections—one for Tehri Garhwal, which the new CM represents in the Lok Sabha, and the one from where he will have to seek an election to the Assembly. In the by election there is every possibility that Bahuguna’s own cousin and former chief minister BC Khanduri maybe asked by the BJP to contest against him. In other words, the party has taken a risk where there was no need to take one.

A thought that is crossing the minds of many is that if the central leadership was hell bent upon denying Harish Rawat the opportunity to lead his state, the natural course left to it would have been to pick either Yashpal Arya, a dalit and PCC chief who is amongst the victorious candidates or HS Rawat, the leader of opposition in the last assembly or a woman, Indira Hardesh who has won by a very big margin. The decision to appoint Bahuguna has divided the party and even if all the rebel MLAs are made to see reason, the revolt has left the Congress leadership red faced.

It is also the first time, a section of the party has challenged its high command’s decision. The political interpretation of this is that the leadership’s authority was getting eroded and if corrective measures were not taken, further erosion could follow.

What should be most disturbing is that the revolt is led by a middle level leader and not a top one. This middle level leader has shown that majority of those who won were with him and not with the one chosen by the high command. Harish Rawat has come up in the party from its rank and file and has been a true grass roots man. He has headed the Sewa Dal and has built the party in Uttarakhand. The MLAs who supported him know that he may not be in any position to give them anything at this stage but the fact that they have chosen him over the high command shows that these MLAs also perhaps know that the high command also cannot give them anything. So between the two nothings, it was better to side with the one who has been by their side during the last so many years.

The Congress it seems is not ready to learn any lessons from the assembly results and if a situation of instability has arisen, the party has itself to blame for it. There are many challenges, which are coming in the next couple of months including the Union Budget and the elections of the President and vice president of the country. Before that, the term of K Rehman Khan, the deputy chairman of rajya Sabha is coming to an end by April 2 and the party may have to face an election for getting the new deputy chairman elected. The Congress on its own does not have the strength and it is possible that the next presiding officer of the Rajya Sabha is from outside the UPA fold. It may thus be for the first time, the UPA may have somebody other than its own as a presiding officer and this trend could continue even for the post of the vice president who is also the chairman of the Rajya Sabha.

The indication of the way the Congress leadership is thinking would certainly get reflected in the selection of the party’s Rajya Sabha nominees before March 19th, the last date of filing nominations. It is to be seen whether those who had come from other parties will continue to get preference over the party’s own home grown soldiers. It is also a subject matter of speculation that a big party re-shuffle is on cards and may see many heads roll to make way for new faces. The Congress has no option but to reinvent itself if it has to cope with new challenges.

It was not a casteist counter-revolution that contributed to her downfall. If there was a determination on the part of floating voters who had supported her in 2007 to defeat her this time, the reasons lie in her perceived arrogance. Indian elections have repeatedly demonstrated that the key to electoral success lie in forging a social coalition of castes and communities and diluting doctrinaire beliefs. Mayawati once held the potential of forging a dalit-led social coalition. Her style of governance added to dalit self-confidence but it alienated other communities. They combined against her and neutralised the impact of a stupendous dalit mobilisation.

The BSP combined the attributes of a social movement and a political party. Kanshi Ram’s vision had envisaged dignity and empowerment through the capture of political power. Mayawati carried forward that legacy, achieving electoral victory in a caste-ridden society. But over the past five years, that purposefulness came unstuck. The BSP’s grip on dalits remained broadly intact but the nimble footedness and flexibility necessary for a political party suffered as a consequence of her own high-handedness.

For Rahul Gandhi too, the hyper-involvement and aggressive posturing of the past month was driven by a desire to set the Congress back on track in India’s largest state. The heir apparent of the Congress knew that a good showing in UP would firmly establish his political legitimacy. This understandable mission was, however, marred by impulsive politics.

First, Rahul based his intervention in UP on the belief that the Youth Congress had established a formidable network of young Indians driven by a desire to change the culture of politics. The problem was that the network Rahul sought to create had little or no relationship with the pre-existing Congress. UP saw the bizarre spectacle of an ‘old’ and largely dispirited Congress being out of synch with those who fancied themselves as the new inheritors. The argument that the party organisation failed to harvest the goodwill generated by Rahul is specious. The UP Congress suffered from the problem of incoherence.

Secondly, having chosen a (flawed) management model to undertake a blitzkrieg, Rahul chose to supplement it with a blend of paternalism and sycophancy. The overuse of the family in the Amethi-Rae Bareili-Sultanpur belt, the inclination to refer to himself in the third person and his inability to go beyond the lofty generalisations of ‘development’ ensured that his energetic campaign was seen as part of the seasonal tamasha-no different from the Amitabh Bachchan shows hosted by a beleaguered Samajwadi Party in 2007.

Rahul professed to stand for a modernity that would transcend the preoccupation with caste politics . Yet, his style was paternalistic and more befitting an inheritor than a reformer. The Congress’ disappointing performance wasn’t entirely the responsibility of Rahul but it exposed the limitations of Rahul’s messaging-particularly when contrasted with the understated earthiness of Akhilesh Yadav. India has changed, but Rahul persisted with an outmoded imperial style.

Finally, Rahul failed to factor in the absurdity of Delhi dictating the political agenda of an increasingly federal-minded India. He didn’t gauge that regional parties can’t be beaten by a squad of paratroopers. After 1991, UP is becoming more self-contained. Rahul tried to reverse this localism with a contrived national thrust which, alas, was a euphemism for his own political career.

The UP election should, ideally, add to the learning curve of all the four parties. Unfortunately, despite the routine assurances of ‘introspection’ that come with setbacks, the inclination to disregard history has been unfailing.

Rakhi Sharma and Awadhesh Kishore

Institute for Development of Technology for Rural Advancement, Mathura-281004 INDIA

Sarvoday Mahavidyalaya, Chaumuhan-581406, Mathura INDIA

Objective:

In present study an attempt has been made with the object to study the perception of teacher trainees of Uttar Pradesh (India) from various classes on the item “Whether sex education is required to avoid development of inferiority in the children.”

Methodology:

The teacher trainees in Uttar Predesh (India) were asked whether sex education is required to avoid development of inferiority in the children.” The sample size was 200 including 124 males and 76 females and 100 each of two systems of education viz. traditional and distance. The survey was conducted with the respondents of 23 districts out of 75. The age group of the respondents was 22 to 35 years. Chi square analysis was implemented to draw valid conclusions from the observations.

Findings:

Significant (p<0.01) majority of teacher trainees (69%) was perceived that sex education is required to avoid development of inferiority in the child with χ2= value equal to 19.92.

Female teacher trainees were also presented their significantly positive (p<0.01) view in this direction with a majority of 79% and χ2 value equal to 17.80, however, the majority of male teacher trainees was just 59% and remained non-significant (p>0.01) with χ2 value equal to 17.80.

Teacher trainees under traditional system of education were recorded to be non-significant (p>0.01) to present their positive view to provide sex education for avoiding development of inferiority of 63% χ2 value equal to 5.00, however, the majority of teacher trainees under distance system of education was remained significantly positive 75% with χ2 value equal to 14.92.

As far as the interaction between the two genders the teacher trainees i.e. male and female and two systems of education i.e. traditional and distance are concerned, highest support to the theory that sex education is required to avoid development of inferiority in the children was received from female teacher trainees under traditional system of education with a majority of 86% and χ2 value equal to 17.80, followed by those of females under distance education system with a majority of 72% and χ2 value equal to 4.84 and males under traditional system with a majority of 64% and χ2 value equal to 1.96,  Lowest support to the theory was given by the male teacher trainees under distance system of education with a majority of just 54% with χ2 value equal to 0.16.

Flag of India

India’s national flag is tricolored—saffron at the top, white in the middle and green at the bottom in equal proportions, which represents courage, purity and fertility respectively. The navy blue wheel, the Dram Chara (the wheel of law) which has 24 spokes, is there at the center of the flag

National Emblem of India

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A replica of the Lion of Sabbath, near Varanasi in Utter Prudish State is the national emblem of India. The emblem rests on a circular abacus which in turn rests on a lotus in full bloom, representing the source of life and creative inspiration. Four lion heads are there- symbolizing power, courage and confidence. There’re four animals—the lion, the elephant, the horse and the bull that guards the north, east, south and west respectively. There is a motto inscribed below the emblem in Devanagari which says “Truth Alone Triumphs”

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In 1976, a farmer in northern India became alarmed when he was informed of his own death. Lal Bihari was in the process of applying for a loan when the bank representative delivered the bad news, and it wasn’t just that his loan had been denied. He was clearly a breathing, animated, fifteen-year-old, and he exhibited none of the classic symptoms of zombiism, yet government records indicated that he was no longer among the living. There was even a death certificate bearing his name.

There was no arguing that he appeared to be alive, but such evidence turned out to be insufficient to correct the error. After some investigation Bihari learned that his situation was not due to some administrative blunder, but rather it was due to an act of fraud. An unscrupulous uncle had bribed a government worker to provide a false death certificate, as well as bribing another fellow at the local Land Registry Office. For less than $100, the uncle had gained the title to Bihari’s farmland in Uttar Pradesh, leaving no legally living soul to challenge the claim. As Lal Bihari began the lengthy effort to bring himself back to life and reclaim his stolen lands, he discovered that there were many others like him, and that the death-by-paper practice was widespread in the region of India known as the “badlands.”

In order to bring attention and justice to the throngs of the undead , Bihari formed Mritak Sangh, the Association of the Dead. Many were worse off than he, suffering beatings and threats from the family members who had defrauded them. Many of them were even in danger of losing their real lives at the hands of those who had profited from their “demise.” No land owner was completely safe from the treachery, including a a man named Maha Prasad who worked as a police constable for six years while legally dead. Over time, Mritak Sangh’s membership grew over 10,000– with some estimates as high as 20,000– though no official tally has ever been made. Apparently the culture of fraud and theft is fertilized by a mixture of scarce farmland, high crime rate, and fierce family rivalries.

For eighteen years Bihari battled the bureaucracy and corruption in an effort to once again be listed among the living. Finding that all official channels led to dead ends, Bihari resorted to more dramatic measures. He arranged his own funeral, applied for a widow’s pension for his wife, kidnapped the son of the uncle who stole his land, threatened murder, threw leaflets at lawmakers, publicly insulted judges, and even tried running for Prime Minister. He went so far as to add the word “Mritak”– meaning “dead”– to the end of his name. “The Late Lal Bihari” created these public scenes in hopes of being arrested and thereby forcing the government to acknowledge his existence, but each time he was merely beaten by police or rebuked for wasting officials’ time.

At long last, in 1994, a local District Magistrate helped restore Bihari to legal life and his lands were returned to him. He was thirty-three years old. After over eighteen years as a dead man– more than half of his life– he relinquished the land to the very uncle who had originally arranged for his premature death. His uncle was so ashamed that he begged Bihari for forgiveness.

Following his own success, Lal Bihari the Living has continued his efforts to raise the dead in India’s badlands. At an official tally in 1999, the Association of the Dead had helped to resurrect roughly thirty people by virtue of having their death certificates annulled, but of those thirty only four have had their lands restored. In 2003 Bihari was awarded the Ig Nobel Peace Prize– a parody of the famous Nobel Peace Prize– citing his extensive and selfless “posthumous activities.”

It is rumored that India’s movie capital of Bollywood is planning to produce a film adaptation of Bihari’s near-death experience. Perhaps such a movie will help bring needed attention to the thousands of walking undead whose lands have been misappropriated by ruthless family members, and help bring an end to this widespread practice. After all, trifling with zombies rarely– if ever– works out for the best.

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BJP leader L.K.Advani’s Jan Chetan yatra, which lasted for 40 days and covered 7,600 KM, finally culminated at New Delhi. He rallied Jan Chetan yatra against corruption committed and black money stashed by UPA Government.

UPA Government should not alone be blamed for corruption, when BJP leaders are themselves adjourning the motions of parliament for money. As far as the issue of Black money is concerned the list of Black money holders include 80% of BJP leaders, the reason of not disclosing the names Is just that there is a deal with the respected countries. They have provided the information to the Indian Government only on terms that this information should not be disclosed publicly, because those banks have their terms and condition, and if steps against this is taken then it will spoil the friendship with respective nation. Indian Government is presently indulged in talks with the Government and Banks of the respective countries to allow India to disclose those names.

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As far as the matter of Rising inflation is concerned the BJP is only liable for the same. UPA Government has introduced various reforms to reduce inflation like FDI in retail sector, which will allow foreign retail companies in retail sector in India, which will leads to reduction in prices of retail products because of increasing number of companies and also it would create employment to a large extent, but again the matter  has been put in to backlog because of violent protests by BJP members.

 The women’s reservation bill under 108th amendment  could have been passed by now, but it is only the BJP Government which does not want our nation to move ahead.

If you are talking about the 2G scam there is no special loss, it is only the amount which could have been earned, but failed because of some corrupt UPA ministers who are now behind the bars but because of it the whole UPA government cannot be blamed. How could we blame someone when we are corrupt. The corporate sector like reliance (who in the name of some new company) forced Raja and all to take bribe to grant them a licence. Are not they corrupt. We talk about the system and Government  but not about those who force others to take bribe. The bribe giver should be equally punished with bribe taker, then only our country would become corruption free. The loss caused because of adjourning the motions of parliament is 10 times more than the loss in 2G scam.

BJP wants to come to power and if they are allowed they will dethrone our country, this can be understood by an example of splitting of Uttar Pradesh in 4 parts.  We can look into JHARKHAND and chattisgarh, they are in worst condition and could not be developed and become more worst after separation from Madhya Pradesh. UPA focus on Unite, as strength of the nation comes from unity and BJP wants to split and they will make a new country if allowed. Split will cause more funds to be diverted, more corrupt practices and will cause even more loss to the exchequer and the state would remain underdeveloped.

BJP played various tactics like they bring Baba ramdev, because they know that public likes ramdev Baba so he will gain a lot of support. But public is not a fool to support a fool tactics. Public criticized Baba a lot because of his foolishness. He should better concentrate on yoga instead entering politics. But Baba should not be blamed BJP was behind the scene.

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Anna and company also entered the politics and succeeded in enticing the whole nation and gained support for his Farsi lokpal bill. He used inappropriate methods to entice Government to pass the lokpal bill prepared by team Anna, which if enforced would demolish the basic structure of our constitution and will remove the democracy. They were foolish to force people not to vote Congress. It is people’s will who to vote who are you to force people. The true fact is Anna wants to come to power and nothing else. He considered himself as Gandhi. He can never be considered as Gandhi, Gandhi ji wants democracy in the country and Anna wants to destroy the democracy.

For Congress, it is a prestigious contest

Uttar Pradesh elections scheduled for next year has assumed importance at the national level. All the main political parties are going to contest alone without major electoral alliance. The ruling Bahujan Samaj Party headed by Mayawati is trying to retain the government. For Congress, it has become a prestigious contest because of the involvement of Rahul Gandhi in the fray. Mulayam Singh Yadav is trying to enter the gaddi once again. BJP is also an aspiring party for the power. Communists will also contest some seats.

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Rahul having a crack at Mayawati

Rahul Gandhi is aggressively campaigning in UP to give life to his Congress Party and bring back the old Nehruvian and Indira Gandhi era when the Congress ruled the roost in Lucknow. The Congress lost power in the eighties and since then has been unable to restore its original strength and health. Rahul Gandhi is trying to woo the Dalit voters in order to weaken Mayawati’s position and to strengthen his own party. How far he will be successful remains to be seen. Personally I believe he has no chance to make Congress come back to power in UP without a major electoral alliance.

Congress + Mulayam = victory

But if Congress strikes an alliance with Mulayam Singh Yadav, then it is a different ball game altogether. The vote banks of Congress and Samajwadi Party coupled with the anti establishment votes will seal the fate of Mayawati. But such an alliance is unlikely to come. The Congress may agree to play a second fiddle to DMK and Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu, but in UP it is not willing to play a second fiddle to Mulayam Singh Yadav. Mulayam is unlikely to grant the Chief Minister post to the Congress. Congress wants to taste power and its nominee to become the Chief Minister. Therefore, right at the moment, Mayawati is quite safe.

BJP will play a crucial role in a hung assembly

BJP was a force to reckon with two decades back in UP. It captured power at the frenzied height of the Ramjanmabhoomi agitation for the Ram temple in Ayodhya. Today the party has lost that flavour. It is unlikely to win the elections and come to power. However, it may capture sizeable number of seats and in a situation of uncertainty, can tilt the scale towards any side it wants. In case of a hung assembly, the BJP will not be supporting a Congress leader to rule the State. However, it can support either Mulayam Singh Yadav or Mayawati. Given this chance, BJP is likely to opt for Mayawati. Moreover Mulayam Singh Yadav cannot accept the support of BJP as that will alienate the Muslim votes from his party. Mayawati has no inhibitions like this. In fact she had aligned with the BJP openly in the past.

Dalits + Brahmins = victory for Mayawati

But it is Mayawati’s moves that are worrying all the other parties. UP has around 21% Dalit population – the largest Dalit population in any State in India. Almost all of them are likely to vote for Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party. But UP has 15% Brahmin population – the largest Brahmin population in any State in India. So far the Brahmins have been voting for either the Congress or the BJP depending upon the political situation. But in the last election, Mayawati wooed the Brahmins to her fold by offering ministerial berths to them. She declared some Brahmin festivals as holidays to please the community. She came to power with her own majority last time in 2007 because of the Brahmin support. 21% plus 15% is equal to 36% is simple mathematics which anybody can understand. Yet, this simple mathematics tilted the scale in her favour last time in 2007. Now also she is playing the same cards.

Wooing Brahmins to her fold

Mayawati has demanded even reservations for the poor Brahmins. No other party can befriend the Brahmins so openly as Mayawati. This openness has endeared the Brahmins in UP and other States to her. She will reap rich dividends this time also. But what about anti-establishment votes? Negative votes for Mayawati will be only from other castes and will be divided among her opponents. Hence she need not have to worry unduly. What about corruption and erection of her own statues in UP at a massive cost? These things are unlikely to dissuade the Dalits and the Brahmins against her. She has a solid support of 36% of the UP population. She needs just another five per cent from other communities, which she can garner easily.

Indira Gandhi followed the formula Dalits + Brahmins + Muslims = victory

Actually, Mayawati’s formula of Dalits + Brahmins is not entirely a new one. Indira Gandhi followed the formula Dalits + Brahmins + Muslims in the whole of India successfully. But Mayawati cannot include Muslims in her formula because most of the Muslims vote for Mulayam Singh Yadav. Moreover the Muslims are also angry against her for her alliance with BJP in the past many occasions. All things point out to a victory for Mayawati in the UP elections. But between now and the election, new situations can arise and existing advantages and disadvantages may change.

Vijayakant, next Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu?

In Tamil Nadu also if a political party follows the formula of Indira Gandhi, it will be highly successful. For example, the cine actor Vijaya Kant already has 10% vote bank in Tamil Nadu. If he woos Brahmins, Dalits and Muslims into his fold, he will be the Chief Minister next year and can never be dislodged by anybody. Tamil Nadu has 15% Muslims, 20% Dalits and 5% Brahmins. 15% + 20% + 5% is equal to 40%. Add another 5% from the rest of the community and Vijayakant can get 45% votes which will catapult him to the Chief Minister’s saddle.

Communists are fighting for secularism

The two Communist parties are fighting for secularism and Muslims’ rights. Their policy is to prevent BJP from coming to power.. They will extend their support to winning parties of Congress, Mulayam Singh and Mayawati in order to checkmate BJP